You Made Your Bed, Now Lie In It
by Chris Underwood on September 20, 2024
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To say that the political world was rocked by the revelations against Mark Robinson that burst onto the news scene yesterday would be an understatement. For a candidate already known for being a controversial figure these new scandals take the cake. Some are even going so far as to say he may now be a worse candidate than Roy Moore, who managed to lose a senate seat in Alabama. According to CNN’s reporting, Robinson claimed to be, among other things, a “Black Nazi.” For many candidates, this would be a campaign’s death sentence, resulting in ending their bids for office in disgrace. Robinson, as of midnight, is unable to withdraw from the race, meaning that he will be Republicans’ nominee for North Carolina Governor.
At Pivot Point, we saw that Robinson was trailing badly before yesterday’s bombshell, and we elected to move the race to Likely Democratic. And to be clear, that is where it will likely remain until post-scandal polling shows significant movement. There have been countless times a scandal was supposed to doom a candidate that didn't come to pass. This could, and likely will, be different because Robinson was already in a relatively big hole, but we'll exercise caution in the meantime. Democrats have historically polled above their final result in North Carolina, but luckily for Josh Stein he was already in good shape. Robinson, while among the worst nominees to be the state’s governor in recent memory, is seeing his chances slip away by the hour, but still has a nonzero chance to win.
In the immediate aftermath of this reporting that included, in addition to the “Black Nazi” statement, support and a desire for owning slaves, and a plethora of questionable comments on pornographic sites, people asked, “Why wasn’t Robinson vetted properly?” Scandal is nothing new to Robinson, but you have to ask if a functioning political party would have even allowed it to get to this point. Well, what does properly vetted mean? In North Carolina, unlike many states, governor and lt. governor are elected separately. First, Republican primary voters and then the North Carolina electorate elected Robinson Lt. Governor in 2020. Republican primary voters selected him as their nominee for governor this year. As political operatives we’ve spoken to have said, “Once you’re the nominee or in office, they have to deal with you.” We saw this, to a certain extent, with Donald Trump in 2016. The zone had been so flooded by so much sh*t, so to speak, about Robinson they may have thought it had reached the point of diminishing returns. Other Republicans may not have even cared, taking the Trump-era tactic of being brash and brazen in the face of the “liberal establishment.” Or even liked it. This isn’t the first time or the second, or the third, that something like this has happened to Republicans of late. This is the party, of course, that nominated the aforementioned Roy Moore. The party that nominated Kari Lake (twice for statewide office.) The party that nominated Blake Masters. The three of them, and Robinson, come from different areas of the country but they come from the same MAGA wing of their party. A wing that often seems more interested in “owning the libs” than with winning.
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Robinson’s first foray into politics came in the aftermath of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. He took to the Greensboro city council and other forums to promote gun rights activism, opposing increased gun control that many wanted to see in the wake of another gun violence tragedy. His activism eventually led to seeking the Republican nod for lieutenant governor in 2020, with incumbent Dan Forest (R) seeking the governorship. Robinson managed to take the primary by a wide margin, defeating statewide officials, former Congresspeople, and state legislators alike, carrying over 90% of the state’s counties in the process. Clearly, the Republican primary voters had some affinity for what Robinson had to say. Polling immediately after the primary showed Robinson in a relatively solid position going into the general election.
The 2020 primary happened in March. Robinson seemingly managed to skirt public controversy until that September, despite a past litany of controversial takes that was available to find at the time. Among these include calling the Obamas atheists and anti-semitic remarks centering around the movie Black Panther. Having looked through Holley’s, his Democratic opponent, old social media accounts for the campaign, we only found one instance of taking a shot at Robinson, and it was only after the Black Panther scandal broke. Holley seems to have run a positive campaign and didn’t focus on the controversial statements by her opponent. In the general election, Robinson would win by three points, carrying a large majority of the state’s counties.
Shortly after, Robinson started making a name for himself in the state’s government. Naturally, a governor and an LG of different parties would not be expected to be best friends, but the offices of Governor Cooper and LG Robinson had virtually no communication. A reason that Cooper, who many viewed as a frontrunner for the nomination, pulled himself out of consideration as Kamala Harris’s VP pick is due to a fear of what Robinson would do if Cooper would leave the state. And, if you listen to Robinson, this is a fully justified fear. Among other things, Robinson has said that he would support banning abortion entirely in the state. Governor Cooper, understandably, might not want to take the risk that Robinson and the legislature act on that sentiment while he’s out of state campaigning or on other official business. For all intents and purposes, Cooper is grounded in the state for the remainder of his term.
Robinson, having thrown his hat in the ring for governor this cycle, unleashed a deluge of scandals. Despite running against State Treasurer Dale Folwell, he ended up winning by a large margin. New scandals would rock the campaign almost immediately after. Scandals that Republicans should have seen coming, given his history of inflammatory comments and assorted controversy. Controversies that Josh Stein, the Democratic nominee, was all too happy to help bring to the public’s attention.
Some early scandals that Democrats hit Robinson on were his Holocaust denial, anti-LGBTQ+ positions, and abortion. Not long after, Robinson made the news again, this time by saying, “Some folks need killing!” This, understandably, resulted in rebukes from across the political spectrum, as simple disagreement with one’s opponents does not warrant their death in any context. By this point, Josh Stein had secured a relatively solid polling lead, often cracking the 5-point threshold to put the race in at least Lean Democratic territory. As of late, that lead had ballooned to 10+ points in most of the recent polls
Then the CNN story dropped. You can review the findings yourself using the first link in this article, but to summarize: Mark Robinson has dug himself a near inescapable hole. He had, at varying times, endorsed slavery and a desire to own slaves, and he admitted to cheating or wanting to cheat on his wife (possibly with her sister). And that is only what CNN felt comfortable publishing. There have since been a number of other stories break on social media or other publications. Conventionally, something like this would lead, almost immediately, to the candidate dropping out. In fact, yesterday there was a major push to get him to drop out from Republicans in the state and nationally (including the Trump campaign, reportedly). But we do not live in conventional times, and he is anything but a conventional candidate.
Will these scandals stick to Robinson where the others haven't? There are reasons to think they will. First, they are breaking in late September. The electorate is about to be at their maximum tuned in-ness to the election. Democrats are going to put a lot of money into making sure every voter in North Carolina has heard about these statements. The embarrassing nature of some of these reports will be sure to spread like wildfire on social media giving them a far wider reach than traditional media could ever dream. Stories such as Robinson, who was very supportive of Pornhub being blocked in the state, having frequented porn shops in the Greensboro area. And finally, given the nature of the race it is less likely these stories will go away. The governorship is just an inherently more important office.
So, where does Trump stand on all of this? Well, as mentioned above there were reports out yesterday that the Trump campaign wants Robinson to drop out. Though what the Trump campaign wants, and what Trump wants are often two fundamentally different things. Trump endorsed Robinson, and as of writing this article, has not unendorsed him. He has previously referred to Robinson as “MLK on steroids” which is sure to be used in ads from here to election day by the Harris campaign. At what point do we have to ask ourselves if this is what Trump, MAGA Republicans and Republican primary voters desire?
What happens now?
Well, Robinson will appear on the ballot as the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s Governorship. Having missed the deadline, the state’s Republican Party cannot replace him as their nominee. There is evidence that Robinson (in tandem with Trump) is dragging down the ticket at-large. A majority of Democrats running for offices in North Carolina’s Council of State (North Carolina’s 10 statewide executive officials) and Alison Riggs (running for State Supreme Court) are polling ahead of their Republican challengers. And notably, the Harris campaign has taken a narrow lead in some polling averages and is now narrowly favored to win North Carolina in our internal model (though the state is still rated as a tossup at the presidential level).
What do we see as the eventual outcome here? For starters, Democrats are favored to retake a majority on the Council of State winning six of the ten races. Republicans are also narrowly favored to lose a Supreme Court seat. Rep. Don Davis (D, NC-01), who was a target of the 2022 round of redistricting, is a slight favorite to hold as a result of all this. Robinson’s scandals and those of Trump are having a toxic effect on the Republican brand here, and they’re facing a rough year.
Regardless of what ends up happening with Robinson, it remains to be seen how remarks and actions like his will hold up in future cases. In statewide elections in the Trump era, Republicans keep nominating fringe candidates who then run into the buzz saw that is the general electorate. Usually, people learn from their mistakes. There is some indication Senate Republicans leadership wishes to do this, but it is an open question whether primary voters will grant their wish. Until next time, watch for more updates from the crew at Pivot Point.
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