State Leg. Races to Keep an Eye on 2.0
by Chris Kirkwood on July 11, 2024
Embedded Files
Each contribution helps us provide our best analysis.
This fall, several state legislative chambers throughout the country are up for grabs. Battleground seats in these states will be hotly contested, but there will be action going on in a lot of legislative chambers in November. Even in safe states and/or chambers, both parties will be fighting intensely for seats to maximize their influence, and potentially protect veto-override powers. Here are another five Pivot Point is keeping a close eye on, specifically from the view of this week’s author.
Seat #1: Arizona LD 16
Ratings: Senate - Lean R, House- Seat 1 Safe R and Seat 2 Lean D
Arizona’s 16th legislative district will be an interesting seat to watch because of its unique, different communities. In the far north, Native American Reservations for the Ak-Chin, Tohono Oʼodham, the Gila River Indians, and the San Carlos Apache, sit along the Maricopa/Pinal County border, and vote solidly Democratic. Much of the rest of the Pinal County portion of the seat contains deep red rural turf, with a few small, Hispanic-majority towns like Maricopa (town not county) and Casa Grande. Lastly, the Pima County portion of the district contains some of the northern, blue-shifting suburbs of Tucson.
Arizona is one of a handful of states that only use one legislative map, but elect one Senator and two Representatives from each district. Both House seats are elected via the same ballot, so both Democrats and Republicans could field two candidates in hopes of winning both of the district’s seats. Democrats, however, only fielded one candidate for State House here; an incumbent representative, Keith Seaman (D-Casa Grande.) This may play out well in a situation where one Democrat unites all the Democratic votes, keeping the field from being divided and ending in two Republicans being elected. However, if Democrats see a good year there, this could backfire in a big way for Democrats.
Republicans go into these races with two incumbents, including the House Majority Leader Theresa Martinez (R-Casa Grande). To further pad their advantage, shifts rightward in Hispanic communities and a less-favorable Democratic environment than 2020 may serve to help Republicans sweep all three seats. However, Democrats are not totally helpless here. The Tucson suburbs are trending heavily towards Democrats, and should not be written off, even in a more Republican year. Furthermore, abortion will be on the ballot, and this has energized Democrats and more moderate voters since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Additionally, Republicans nominated the controversial news anchor and 2022 failed gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake for Senate, putting the race for LD 16’s second seat in Lean D territory
Both parties were somewhat trepidatious about how a three-way Senate race would turn out between Democratic Representative Rueben Gallego, Kari Lake, and Kyrsten Sinema (I), the former Democratic incumbent, prior to the latter announcing her retirement. Polls had shown a close and messy race, with Gallego typically leading the pack, but with under 40% of the vote. Now, with Sinema out, Gallego is decidedly in the lead.
What does that mean for this seat? It’s going to be heavily contested as Arizona Democrats attempt to strengthen their position in their effort to taking control of the state legislature, and as Arizona Republicans try to stave off a Democratic takeover of a state that used to be a firmly Republican state prior to the Trump-era.
Seat #2: Florida HD 22
Rating: Lean D
The Democratic Party’s experience in Florida since 2016 has been equivalent to being hit in the head with a folding chair in a WWE match. Repeatedly. With a never-ending supply of folding chairs. At the State House level, Democrats saw gains in 2016 and 2018, but plummeted in the years following. Fortunately for them, the maps are relatively fair, and the brightest blue spot for them is the northern part of the state.
Democrats have a solid opportunity to flip HD 22, which contains part of Gainesville (home to the University of Florida) in Alachua County, and all of Gilchrist and Levy counties. While Democrats saw a collapse in their vote share in much of the state in 2020, this district got about 3 points bluer. To add to the competition in the district, this is an open seat for 2024. Speaker pro-tempore Chuck Clemmons (R-Newberry) is term-limited, and can’t run again for the seat. Neither party has had their primary for the seat yet, but the majority of candidates vying for the seat have some elected experience.
Two factors would contribute to Democrats winning the seat: the continued leftward shift of the district in general, and/or a boost from students returning to voting at their campus polling places after the pandemic. For Republicans, being able to hold the seat would likely result in this trend stalling, likely due to a less-favorable national environment for Democrats.
Seat #3: Oregon HD 52
Rating: Lean D
Oregon’s 52nd House district is one that should, on paper, be a seat that would automatically flip to Democrats. The district contains all of Hood River County, which is one of the bluest in the state, as well as portions of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Wasco counties. Biden carried the seat by almost 10 points. So, why do Republicans hold it.
The seat is currently held by Representative Jeff Helfrich (R-Hood River). He had served in the State House prior to 2020, but retook his old seat in 2022, in a year where statewide Republicans did relatively well. Within the next year, Helfrich would become the House Minority leader. As far as name recognition and incumbency go, he’s a relatively tough Republican to beat.
On its own, the district’s partisan lean is almost enough to count the seat as Likely D. Republicans are likely not to have as good of a year here as they did in 2022, since 2024 will have the added Presidential partisanship to consider. Democrats are also likely going to be throwing a lot of money at Clackamas County in an attempt to flip back the 5th congressional district. The seat was one that Biden also carried and was gerrymandered to elect a Democrat, but elected a Republican representative. Helfrich’s brand is the only thing keeping HD 52 competitive, but that likely won’t be enough.
Seat #4: Pennsylvania SD 37
Rating: Lean R
When Connor Lamb first won his seat in the US House, he had southwestern Allegheny County to thank, in particular a portion of the current 37th State Senate district. Now, if Pennsylvania Democrats are to win control of the State Senate, this is a region that they’ll also have to thank.
The 37th district is a mix of the Pittsburgh suburbs and industrial towns along the Ohio River. Federally, it was a seat that Trump won by just over a point in 2020. That year, the current incumbent, Republican Devlin Robinson, flipped the seat from Democratic control. Robinson is running again, and is favored to win (albeit narrowly). While Robinson is narrowly favored by Pivot Point and other forecasters, Biden is probably a narrow favorite to “win” this seat in November.
Many factors are at play here that will decide control of this seat in such a competitive environment. Republicans wield the incumbency advantage, and will likely see gains among blue-collar voters along the Ohio, as well as some defecting from Biden’s 2020 coalition. For Democrats, Biden has joked in the past that he was Pennsylvania’s “3rd Senator” and may have a pseudo-home-state boost, popular Democratic Senator Bob Casey is running for re-election, and Allegheny County has another must-win State Senate seat for Democrats that make it a key place to invest.
As a boost for both parties, each will be heavily contesting Pennsylvania this fall. For candidates not named Barack Obama running in the last 30 years, margins have typically been slim. The Pittsburgh metro is a key investment for each party. Despite the metro at large being one of a handful to shift towards Republicans in recent years, Allegheny County saw Biden actually make gains, and especially so within this seat. Robinson may be a slight favorite to hold the seat, but it’s bound to be a nailbiter.
Seat #5: Washington LD 17
Rating: State Senate- Lean R, State House- Seat 1 Lean D and Seat 2 Lean R
Washington saw many of its southern and eastern legislative districts be redrawn due to VRA related complaints about Hispanic representation. The new LD 17 was drawn to enable a Hispanic majority district to its north. This iteration of the seat encompasses rural communities in Skamania and Klickitat counties, as well as Vancouver (Vancouver Washington, not Canada) and some of its satellite communities in Clark County.
Recent years have seen Vancouver and its suburbs become much more favorable to Democrats. Conversely, a lot of turf along the Columbia has trended towards Republicans, but the Clark County portion of this district decidedly outweighs the rest of the district. Currently, Democrats have only won two seats outside of the Puget Sound area, one being in Spokane and the other being a Vancouver-exclusive seat. The lean of this district could well increase that to three (four including the new Hispanic-majority district).
Republicans hold the incumbency advantage going into this election, and will also likely benefit from a less Democratic-favoring year than 2020. The two current reps for the district are Kevin Waters and Paul Harris, with Harris attempting to level up to the district’s Senate seat (as Washington uses a system comparable to Arizona’s). Washington Democrats have typically underperformed outside of the Puget area, which lends to favoring the two current incumbents. However, the open State House seat is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity. Democrats hold a stronger base partisanship advantage than they did on the old map. Biden had won the district by around four points, and this new district would have gone to him by almost seven.
Please stay tuned over the summer as Pivot Point will continue to roll out the state legislative races to keep an eye!
Page updated
Report abuse