What’s Really Going on in Virginia?

Another Virginia poll has come out showing a close race, this time from Fox News with a 48%-48% tie in the head-to-head and 42%-41% Biden edge in a multi-candidate field. This comes on the heels of other recent polls which showed a close race in Virginia. There been some legitimate questions raised about these polls and why they might be off, such as the Fox News poll showing Trump winning 25% of Black voters. A Republican has never gotten this number in the modern era, and it’s hard to believe Trump really has that level of support right now in Virginia.

At the same time, others have gone so far to call Virginia a tossup and a true battleground again. Even those Republicans who say Biden is still likely to win here will points to the polls at proof Virginia is not as blue as Biden’s 2020 10 point win would suggest. Biden’s polling struggles in Virginia mirror those in the national environment, although it is among the most drastic swings in any state.

Given the relatively small numbers of polls, it is hard to have a clear answer about what it is really going on in Virginia. There are three possible scenarios of what’s happening and time will tell which one plays out.

Scenario 1: Virginia Is Competitive Again

If we take the polls at face value, then Virginia would be competitive again this year. A lot of things would have to go right for Trump for this to happen though. Most of this would involve Biden losing support among parts of his base while Trump maximizes his turnout.

Part of Biden’s problem in Virginia would involve a loss of support from progressives and Muslim Americans due to the war in Gaza, which would be mostly reflected in college towns and parts of Northern Virginia. There was some evidence of this in the Presidential primary with certain precincts in Loudoun County with a concentrated Muslim population registering a higher percentage of protest votes against Biden.

Biden may also lose some support among military voters in Hampton Roads who backed him in 2020, given this area of Virginia tends to swing from election-to-election. Finally, while a large swing to Trump among Black voters is unlikely, there could be a relatively lower turnout among these voters as compared to 2020. Trump for his part would need to juice turnout among his base in rural Virginia, where he has already gotten close to maximizing margins. While it is unlikely he will make much headway in Northern Virginia, Trump might have a better shot at improving his margins in the suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads.

This set of circumstances is roughly what happened with Glenn Youngkin, who was able to win a close election for Governor in 2021. However, the Achilles’ heel for Trump has always been Northern Virginia, and it is unlikely he can hit Youngkin’s numbers there. This was evidenced in the Presidential primary, where Haley was able to dominate the inner Northern Virginia suburbs, even while losing most of the rest of Virginia to Trump.

Scenario 2: Biden Up Single Digits

The second scenario is basically the first scenario, but not as drastic. Biden would have lost some support, but still can count on strong turnout in Northern Virginia. Much of the support Biden loses would go to third parties as opposed to Trump. This is similar to what happened in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won Virginia with a little less than 50%, and third parties got over 5%. As a result, Biden would likely win closer to Clinton’s 5 point margin of 2016, as opposed to his 2020 margin of 10 points. 

Scenario 3: Biden Up Close to Double Digits 

It is also possible that the polls are wrong or at least will not be accurate by the time voters cast ballots. The case for this is basically the polls are not doing a good job reaching parts of Biden’s base. This would include Black voters, immigrant communities with English as a second language, and younger voters. The response rate has fallen for all pollsters compared to even a few years ago, making these communities especially difficult to reach.

In addition, the polls may miss the intensity of anti-Trump sentiment in Northern Virginia. Essentially, Biden’s high propensity base of college educated voters will turnout at much higher rates in this part of Virginia than Trump’s low propensity base of white working class voters in rural Virginia. 

Finally, some of the voters currently dissatisfied with Biden will “come home” as the election gets closer. Under this scenario, the current lagging poll numbers hide Biden’s underlying strength in Virginia given the makeup of the state. This is certainly something the Biden campaign is banking on across the country, although it means that his poll numbers will continue to struggle until that happens.

So What’s The Deal

The polling in Virginia at this point has created a “pick your own adventure” because it is in the eye of the beholder. For Democrats, the polls are not accurately capturing the full spectrum of voters and it doesn’t add up that Virginia would swing 10 points from 2020. For Republicans, Biden’s struggles in Virginia are evidence of systematic problems, even if Trump does not end up winning Virginia. 

The reality is probably somewhere in between with Biden up single digits right now in Virginia. While Biden does have issues with parts of the base, it is also true that the Trump brand is toxic in Northern Virginia. It is very difficult for Trump to win without at least making up ground in the most populated part of the state, which still seems unlikely.

It is a cliche, but ultimately polls are a snapshot in time. Even if Virginia seems to be close right now, that doesn’t mean it will be the case when voters go to vote. Given the interest these polls have generated, hopefully there will be more polling in Virginia to help give a clearer picture of what’s happening.

If Biden really is struggling in Virginia, then the election is probably already over in closer battleground states. But if Biden is holding up elsewhere and still has a path to 270 electoral votes, then it is unlikely Virginia will be at much risk for him.

*Sam Shirazi is an Attorney who lives in Arlington, and is a Virginia elections analyst.