Popular Vote Matching Counties in the 21st Century

As presidential election cycles near their conclusion coverage of bellwether counties will rise. These counties more often than not have predicted which candidate will win a given election. However, since 2000, there have been two occasions where the winner of the electoral college did not win the popular vote; George W. Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016. Given this and the possibility that this November might see this happen again, we at Pivot Point think it worthwhile to examine counties that have accurately predicted the national popular vote winner since 2000, and assess their relevance for future predictions. 

One key consideration is what the national popular vote will be. In presidential elections this century, Democrats have won the popular vote 5 out of 6 times, with 2004 being the only exception. In fact, they have won all but one going back to 1992. It stands to reason that the national environment this fall will see Democrats ahead in the popular vote (albeit one that may not translate to an electoral college win). Averaging the last two Presidential elections, Democrats hold around a 3-point popular vote advantage, and ,as of publishing, Harris has a 2.7 point lead in the 538 average. For the purpose of this exercise, that will be the base partisanship for this election. 

The Counties

Eleven counties in the United States accurately predicted the national popular vote winner in the last six Presidential races (so D-R-D-D-D-D), which can be seen in blue in the map below. The majority of the counties below have the following characteristics:

1. All have large racial minority populations (Hispanic or African American; Rockland County NY also has a large Orthodox Jewish population)

2. Eight of the counties are in the South

3. Eight of the counties are home to a mid-sized city

4. Eight of the counties were within a 10-point margin for Joe Biden in 2020

5. Six of the counties are roughly half the size of a congressional district (which as of 2020 is 761k)

Rockland County NY

Rockland County sits to the north of New York City, and has around 300 thousand residents. The county has several notable Orthodox Jewish communities, who, unlike their mainline counterparts, vote reliably Republican. In the 21st century, the Orthodox voters and suburban/rural Republicans have typically been narrowly outvoted by the African American and Hispanic-dominant population cores. At the state level, however, Republicans have seen more success. Lee Zeldin carried Rockland in his bid for Governor in 2022, as did Republican Congressman Mike Lawler. The county also has several elected Republicans to local offices, including County Executive and a majority of the town supervisor positions (three out of the five in the map).

Could Rockland flip to Trump and still be a bellwether county for the popular vote? As stated earlier, Trump is trailing the 538 polling average by ~3 points. That would make him a normal polling error away from a popular vote win. The Trump campaign is, according to current polling, gaining ground with minority voters, especially Hispanics, from 2020. Though it should be said, these conclusions are drawn off off a subset of a poll, which themselves are, at best, a snapshot of a particular time. If Trump is able to keep margins along the Hudson River/Clarkstown down, he stands a decent chance of carrying the county, given that it only voted for Biden by just short of two points. Conversely, if Harris were to win the popular vote and carry Rockland, it would indicate that Democrats are holding their ground amongst minority groups (in stark contrast to current polling), retaining their gains with suburbanites, and possibly even breaking into the Orthodox communities (which is unlikely given the current Israel/Palestine situation). 

As for a home-state effect on Trump’s behalf, this is notably confounding. In 2016, both he and Hillary Clinton were residents of New York, and as such the state’s counties behaved more as if there was no native-child on the ticket, as opposed to uniformly more blue or red (such as occurred with Barack Obama in Illinois in 2008, and with Joe Biden in Delaware in 2020). In 2020, however, New York’s overall margin for Democrats remained the same, albeit with notable shifts under the hood. This fall, given his polling, Trump is likely to perform better in New York, but the impact of a home state effect is up in the air (especially given that Trump is now, for campaign purposes, a Florida resident like many other former New Yorkers). Rockland is, in all likelihood, going to maintain its popular vote-accurate status in the event of either Harris or Trump winning nationally.

St. Joseph County IN

St. Joseph County is home to South Bend, which produced Transportation Secretary, former South Bend Mayor, and presidential candidate Pete Buttegieg. The county clocks in at about four points more Democratic than Rockland County NY, and is also approximately 25% nonwhite. The county sits directly south of the Michigan border, and east of more Rust Belt-esque counties in Indiana along Lake Michigan. Unlike the latter areas, however, St. Joseph County actually saw net positive growth in the 2020 census.

The county has a very clear urban/rural divide like many others in the Midwest. The Democratic population is primarily clustered in and around urban South Bend and its suburbs, with their strength bleeding further out into the county. This has led to politics being a competition between the two areas, with Republicans holding three out of ten countywide elected offices and having a unanimous majority on the three-seat county commission.

If Trump were to win St. Joseph, it would signal a more significant change than in Rockland NY. Trump was unable to carry St. Joseph with then-Indiana Governor Mike Pence on his ticket in either of his prior runs, signaling that the county is fairly reliably Democratic federally. A flip this November would mean that Trump likely performed on-par with minority voters given current polling, and maintained or even strengthened his rural and suburban numbers. A Harris win would be much closer to par for the county. St. Joseph is likely to lose its popular vote-accurate status in the event of a Trump win, but keep it in the event of a Harris win.

Boone County MO

Boone County Missouri is home to Columbia, the site of the University of Missouri. Like many college towns throughout the country, the college’s city is a deep blue, with the outer parts of the county being fairly Republican. Also like many of these college-dominant counties, Boone votes relatively consistently for Democrats, who have all carried the county in recent statewide elections, and control all of the countywide elected offices.

Unlike the previous two counties mentioned, Boone has over a 10-point gap in Democrats favor, using 2020 Presidential numbers (omitting nonviable candidates). Democrats here are a much more formidable force than in Rockland NY or St. Joseph IN. So why is it here? After much debate, it was decided that conditions may just be right for an upset flip here. For one, again, Trump gaining with minorities is a danger to Democrats in many marginal counties across the nation. Additionally, with the presence of the university, there exists the increased likelihood of a tank in youth turnout due to the opposition of many young voters to the Biden Administration’s handling of the Palestinian genocide, which Harris (despite being more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause) might be lumped in with. 

To be clear, Boone County is still very likely to vote for Kamala Harris even if the national popular vote winner is Trump, and lose its popular vote-matching status in this case. However, Boone County made the popular vote-matching list because George W. Bush won it by a narrow plurality over John Kerry in 2004. Trump managing to do so this November is certainly within the range of possibility, albeit a very unlikely outcome. 

Cameron and Culberson Counties TX

Texas is the only state on this list to have two counties: Cameron along the Mexican border, and Culberson in Big Bend Country to the south of New Mexico. Both are overwhelmingly Hispanic, but are very different in nature. Cameron is an urban/suburban county adjacent to the very-large Hidalgo County, home to McAllen, whereas Culberson County has around 2000 residents, and is a two-hour drive from the region’s principal city of El Paso.

The duo also share an interesting conundrum to analysis: both voted against Texas’s native son George W. Bush in 2000 (with prominent Green Party candidate Ralph Nader also on the ballot), but for him in 2004. Should a home state effect be considered here? Given the varying nature of these counties, the answer to this question is no. Hispanic voters have proven to be a fairly incumbent-favoring group in recent years, having also swung to Obama despite his already massive gains from Kerry’s numbers 2004-2008.

Cameron is the more Democratic of the two, with Biden having won it by over 13 points. Several factors put Cameron on our radar for 2024. First, it voted for Republican Mayra Flores in a House special election prior to the formation of the current Congress. The area around Harlingen is one of the more white, Republican-leaning communities in South Texas. While Trump received an abysmal 32-ish% of the vote in 2016, he gained more than 10 points in 2020, which equated to 20k voters, seemingly out of thin air (Democrats only gained 5k voters). If these gains can be replicated at all, Harris stands at a moderate risk of losing the county, but in all likelihood, it will lose its popular vote-matching status in the event of a popular vote win by Trump.

Culberson County is the swingier of the two, at least as of 2020 when Biden only narrowly carried it. It's comparative rurality helps to explain why the county has shifted Republican in recent years, along with the Hispanic rightward shifts. Statewide Republicans did manage to carry it in 2022, which makes it a prime target for a Trump flip in 2024. The county has had under 1000 federal voters in recent years, with close elections often being decided by tens of votes. Accordingly, Culberson is likely to lose its popular vote-matching status for 2024, as we forecast it to vote for Trump in most circumstances. If Harris does manage to retain it, the current polling picture of unprecedented Republican gains with minority voters likely didn't come to pass.

Caddo Parish LA

For those unfamiliar, Louisiana is one of two states that doesn’t use counties. They use parishes (an artifact of their time under French control), and Alaska uses census areas and burroughs (which serve different purposes). With that in mind, Caddo Parish sits in the northwest corner of the state, and is home to the city of Shreveport. The county has a narrow African American plurality as of the last census, and voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by just short of 7 points. 

The voting in Caddo is very racially segregated and polarized. Shreveport itself is heavily African American, whereas the outskirts of the city are heavily white. In areas that are slightly more African American than white, Republicans typically still win due to much higher rates of white turnout. In part due to this effect, Republicans have sometimes carried Caddo in Louisiana’s off-year elections and in the first round of jungle primaries. Still, presidentially, Bush was the last Republican to win Caddo. His win, however, comes with the asterisk that the county was still majority white in 2004. Demographics in Caddo have decidedly shifted in favor of the Democratic Party, as is evidenced by the recent controversial sheriff’s race, where the white Republican loser threw a fit as a result of an especially narrow loss, a re-run election was held, and the Black Democrat still managed to win a second time. 

A Trump win of Caddo would help to demonstrate decisively that he is performing better with Black voters, and is on track to win the general election. However, this, in our view, is unlikely to happen. For one, while Trump is still (again, according to polls) on track to get a large portion of the Black vote for a Republican, he is still underwater with these voters. Harris taking the helm of the Democratic campaign will likely help to further erode Trump’s relative advantage, given the polling shifts that have taken place since her ascension in what was a relatively stable election prior to the June 27th debate. If Trump is to win the national popular vote, Caddo will likely lose its streak of being popular vote accurate.

Marengo County AL 

Marengo County AL was the closest county in Alabama’s Black belt in 2020. Biden only carried it by just over one point, a 145 vote margin. It is the most rural county with a significant Black population on the list of popular vote-matching counties. The more racially diverse precincts scattered around the county typically drive the narrow but fairly reliable Democratic margins, along with the largest city of Demopolis in the far north. 

There are a complex web of political trends playing out in this county. Being on the periphery of Alabama’s Democratic-voting Black Belt, we might expect Marengo to stay blue. Being more rural, having significant trends of depopulation, and with current polling for African Americans vs past years, we might expect the county to flip to Trump. We also might expect the county to remain blue due to the presence of Kamala Harris, a multiracial woman, at the top of the ticket.

In the event of Trump winning the popular vote, it is near certain that Marengo will vote Republican. In fact, it could certainly flip even in the event of a narrow Trump EC win/PV loss. This county was about ~3 points to the right of the country in 2020. If we had to make a call, Marengo will likely vote Democratic by a comparably narrow margin to 2020, and is accordingly narrowly favored to retain its streak.

Washington County GA

Washington County GA is the most similar to Marengo AL of the national popular vote matching counties. It is notably larger than Marengo with a more concentrated population distribution, but is also situated in the Black Belt with a large African American population, and was narrowly carried by Joe Biden in 2020. The last two Presidential races have seen Washington come within around 100 votes of losing its popular vote-accurate streak.

The main city of Washington County is Sandersville, which is much more African American and Democratic leaning than the county’s border precincts, typically driving Democratic wins. In recent years, though, with African American voters beginning to trend more Republican and depopulation of Black and rural areas, Democratic margins have slipped. In the 2022 Senate race, Raphael Warnock actually lost Washington and neighboring Baldwin counties, but was able to flip them back in the runoff. 

We are slightly more confident that Washington County remains in Democratic hands this November than Marengo, primarily because of its population distribution. Democrats typically perform better in more densely populated areas, and Washington is much more dense (and more populous overall) than Marengo. Still, due to the depopulation of the Black Belt and ongoing political polarization, the county could still very well flip to Trump. Ergo, Washington County is favored to keep its popular vote-accurate streak, albeit narrowly. 

Osceola County FL

The last of the counties to cover is Osceola County FL. It sits just to the south of Orlando, with just over half the population required for one of the state’s Congressional seats. It is also heavily Hispanic (and becoming more so over time), and in some ways resembles Cameron County TX. Hispanic voters are not a monolith. The voters being discussed in Texas largely immigrated from Mexico, and in Florida there are much larger populations of Cubans and Puerto Ricans. Unlike Cameron, however, Osceola had a history of voting Republican before the turn of the century. Currently, all of its countywide officeholders are Democrats, with Democratic strength being the most concentrated in the northwest of the county.

While Joe Biden’s fall in Miami-Dade County was the bigger focus of 2020, Republicans made gains in Osceola. Between 2016 and 2020, Republicans gained about 23k votes to Democrats’ 7k. Additionally, in both of 2022’s high profile races in the state (for Governor and US Senate), Osceola went for the Republican candidate. These races have significantly contributed to the discussions wondering if Florida is still a competitive state (as it now has no statewide elected Democrats), and they have thrown into question if Osceola is a blue county or a swing county. 

On the other hand, Osceola Dems have still shown that they have a backbone. While the big Republican victories happened in 2022, Congressman Darren Soto still managed to carry it by four points. The county is also down to just 1 Republican State Rep., after Democrats flipped HD 35 (split between Osceola and Orange counties) in somewhat of an upset.

If Hispanics see another lurch to the right, Osceola County is fair game this fall. However, this is unlikely to happen to the tune of 2020’s landslide shift. Hispanics still may trend to the right, but in Osceola, this will likely be mitigated by Democratic trends in urban and suburban areas, and by Democrats in the state appearing to be more competitive under state party chair and former Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Osceola County, accordingly, is likely to keep its popular vote-matching streak with some decent odds.