Much has been written about President Biden’s potential weakness in 2024, including among low propensity voters. But with Donald Trump looking increasingly like to win the Republican nomination, his own potential weaknesses could be an issue for the GOP. Specifically, Trump may be uniquely unpopular among independent voters who don’t identify with either of the two major political parties. In the closest states that will decide the winner in the Presidential election, these independents could be the ultimate deciding votes.

This weakness was apparent in the exit poll numbers from the New Hampshire GOP primary where Nikki Haley won independents 60%-38%. It wasn’t enough for her given Trump’s strength with GOP voters, but it is a sign of potential weakness for Trump in the general election. During the 2022 midterms, part of the explanation for Democrats better than expected performance was their strong showing with independents. While these voters may not have been very satisfied with Biden, many were unwilling to back the GOP, even though the party out of the White House typically does well in midterms.

Given Biden’s issues with parts of his base, such as progressive voters dissatisfied with his handling of the war in Gaza, doing well with independent voters will be critical for his re-election chances. While it is certainly possible Trump improves with independents given dissatisfaction with Biden, it is also possible Trump loses even more ground as the election gets closer. By looking at Trumps performance since he first started running for President, it is possible to see Trump’s erosion with independent voters over time.

Who Are Independent Voters?

But first, it is important to understand who are independent voters because they are often mischaracterized. The basic definition of an independent voter is someone who does not identify, and is not registered, with either the Democratic or Republican parties. Sometimes the term “moderate” is used interchangeably with independent voters, but it is not that simple. Independents may identify as progressive, moderate, or conservative on the ideological spectrum and still not belong to a political party. There is certainly some truth that many independent voters being more moderate compared to hardcore party activists, but they do not fit neatly into one political ideology.

Independent voters are also sometimes called “swing voters” because they may vote for either political party depending on the election and candidate. Again there is likely some truth to this, but some independents may also consistently vote for one political party without formally joining it or identifying with it. Partly because independent voters are so hard to put in a box, it can be challenging to predict what they will do in any given election. Perhaps the best was to describe them is that they are truly independent and don’t take orders from political parties. They don’t view themselves as being bound to vote a certain way, which creates an opening to win them over.

There is also a belief that independent voters don’t really matter, and it is all about getting out the base. No doubt any presidential candidate needs to have a strong base of support among committed party activists. But independents make up a sizable chunk of voters, and in some states closer to half, and candidates ignore them at a their own peril.

To show the importance of independence and how their preferences change during elections, exit poll data can be useful. An exit poll is like any other poll and has a margin of error so is not 100% accurate. However, it can give a general sense of how independents voted and how their voting patterns change, even if the exact numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Trump’s Initial Strength with Independent Voters in 2016

It is easy to forget Trump’s initial appeal when he first started running for President in 2015, which many viewed as offering a different type of politics. During the 2016 primaries, Trump actually did fairly well with independents and they were an important part of his coalition. For example, in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, Trump won independents getting 36% of the vote, matching his number with Republican voters. Indeed, Trump won or tied with independent voters in every early primary state in 2016.

This strength with independents carried over into the 2016 general election where he won independents nationally 46%-42%. This edge with independents helped flip battleground states, including the so-called Democratic blue wall in the Midwest: Trump won independents in Michigan 52%-36%, in Wisconsin 50%-40%, and in Pennsylvania 48%-41%. This surprising showing among independents is part of the reason Trump was able to pull off a shock victory in 2016. Some of this may have been caused by Hillary Clinton’s lack of appeal to these voters, but it is clear that Trump also tapped into something given the desire for change after 8 years of Democrats controlling the White House.

Trump Loses Ground with Independents in 2020

After four years in the White House, independents soured on Trump for a variety of reasons and enough of them flipped back to the Democrats to allow a Biden win. While Biden certainly got out more Democrats in 2020 as compared to 2016, part of his winning formula was also inroads among independents. Nationally, Biden won independents 54%-41% and this gave him the edge in the critical battleground states. For example, in the same blue wall states Trump won in 2016, Biden won independents in Pennsylvania 52%-44%, 54%-42% in Wisconsin, and 51%-45% in Michigan. Biden also won independent voters in sun belt states he was able to flip like Arizona and Georgia where he won independents in both by 53%-44%.

Biden’s strength with independents in 2020 can partly be attributed to gains Democrats made during the Trump years in wealthy college educated suburbs. After four years of Trump, it was clear that many independents had enough of Trump and were willing to give Biden a chance.

Democratic Strength with Independents in 2022

Even with Biden in the White House and Trump out, Democrats have continued to show strength with independents. Given historical patterns, many predicted that the 2022 midterms would be a red wave against the party in the White House. When this did not come to pass, part of the answer has to be Democratic strength with independent voters. Nationally, Democrats were able to win independents 49%-47%. In almost every critical Senate battleground, Democrats won independents to expand their majority against all odds. For example, Democrats running for Senate won independents in Pennsylvania 58%-38%, in Georgia 53%-42%, in Arizona 55%-39%, and in Nevada 48%-45%.

Even in states where Democrats lost the Senate race, they performed relatively well with independents winning them 50%-49% in Ohio and 51%-45% in North Carolina, and Republicans winning independents only 50%-49% in Wisconsin. No doubt abortion played a big role with the Supreme Court only overturning Roe v. Wade a few months prior to the midterms. But Democrats also explicitly ran against the threat to democracy that Trump and the MAGA movement represented after January 6th. This playbook is something that Democrats will hope to replicate in 2024.

Trump’s Potential Struggle with Independents in 2024

Given his eroding support among independent voters as compared with his first run in 2016, there are certainly warning signs for Trump. As much as he has a loyal base of supporters, there are also a large number of independent voters who are turned off by his style of politics. Given independent voters seem to lean pro-choice and have concerns about democracy in light of January 6, this should give Democrats an opening. No doubt Biden and his surrogates will be hammering these messages as a way to at least match, if not possibly exceed, his 2020 performance with independents.

However, as the past eight years have shown, independents are not easy to categorize and are not predictable. While many of them might not be thrilled about Trump returning to the White House, they are also generally dissatisfied with how Biden is handling the job. Republicans will likely see an opening with independents by attacking Biden’s age, and issues related to the economy and immigration. Of course, Trump is only a few years younger than Biden blunting that issue. Republicans also enjoyed advantages with some of these issue in 2022, and indeed the economy was a much stronger issue for them back then, and they still lost independents. The question becomes does having Trump and Biden again on the ballot change the calculation for independent voters?

In the final analysis, Biden has an opportunity to exploit Trump’s potential weakness with independent voters to win re-election. It is not certain by any stretch and will depend on which Trump independent voters will remember. Will they see Trump as someone who will change the political status quo like in 2016? Or will they see him as too divisive and create too many distractions to govern effectively like in 2020? Or perhaps they will remember Trump as a threat to democracy like on January 6?

All that will remain to be seen as the campaign plays out in 2024. But one thing is for certain, how independents vote will help determine the winner in November

*Sam Shirazi is an Attorney who lives in Arlington, and is a Virginia elections analyst.