Late last year, Pivot Point spoke to a close observer of the civil war in Myanmar, Nicholas6284, just after the rebels had launched Operation 1027, for October 27th.  He will be referred to as only Nicholas because there is the potential of Junta violence towards him. We caught back up with Nicholas over the last month on Telegram to see where things stand now in the under covered civil war so often overshadowed by media in the United States covering the war in Ukraine and the Israel/Hamas war in Gaza. For context we have added this map of the Myanmar Civil War broken down by whole controls what land.

Pivot Point: How have things changed since we spoke in late November/early December. For context Operation 1027 was in its early stages. I know the question is broad so answer it however you like. 

Nicholas: What happened was that China intervened, force the 3BA to sign ceasefire with the SAC (Junta). This effectively froze the Op1027 with both sides stopping at wherever they were at that time. China probably did so at the request of the SAC which was pretty much desperate at that time. The ceasefire was instrumental in giving them a breather. In Feb 2024, SAC introduced "conscription" law. Basically they legalized random kidnapping of men from the streets to replenish their desperate shortfall in manpower. They announced that they plan to "recruit" 5000 men per mth of up to 60,000 in first year. By end of April, Sit-Tat has reportedly only been able to replenish up to 10,000 new recruits. But the quality and morale of the conscripted who were just randomly snatched out of the streets across Myanmar is very much questionable. Most observers say that Sit-Tat plan wouldn't succeed, but only contribute to more unnecessary deaths. 

On the other side, the new conscription law also forced thousands of young boys and men to flee the country. Some went to neighboring countries while many joined the ranks of PDFs (People's Defence Forces, the armed wing of the National Unity Government.) In the first 2 weeks of Feb, after Sit-Tat announced conscription law, one PDF group claimed they received more than ten thousands new applications.

As for the ceasefire, I do not believe it will last very long. Basically, its very simple, its unsustainable. The front lines are very much unstable with both sides expecting the other to resume fighting in the future. 

PP: Diplomatically speaking, you've mentioned the shortcomings of ASEAN, the major players in the region either playing both sides or overtly pro-Junta, and the blind spot Western countries have had with regards to Myanmar. How has that evolved since our last conversation? 

N: So far, I haven't observed major changes in the attitudes of our neighboring states. However, I have been told that behind the scenes, some countries top leaderships were caught off guard by the fact that Sit-Tat would collapse very fast in northern Shan from Op1027. This shatters the image of the Junta as invincible. Now, I believe that there are some of our neighbors who believe that Sit-Tat can fall. But that's just my opinion.

As for ASEAN, still as useless as ever. Like I mentioned earlier, Sit-Tat enforcement of conscription law cause thousands of men to flee the country. If this trend continues, there will be thousands more. This is a significant regional instability factor for ASEAN. At least, for ASEAN, for their own sake, should pressure Sit-Tat to retract the conscription law. As for the West, they are pretty much occupied with Gaza and Ukraine war to do anything meaningful for Myanmar. I don't see any major policy shift from US or EU other than usual few statements here and there. 

PP: Given the disparate interests of the many rebel groups/organizations, how are their interests aligning or fraying currently? 

N: I don't see any significant differences in the policy of different resistance groups. Of course there were some tensions here and there but overall, I am not seeing any worrying trends. One major development, though, is recently one of the largest armed group in northern Shan who up until now had largely stayed out of the fight, the SSPP group, has mentioned that they would join the fight if things go the same way. We have yet to see if they would walk their talk. 

PP: Where on the frontlines is seeing the most active fighting? And how is life near/away from the front carrying on for civilian populations? (For instance people will be confused by images of people in Kyiv or Lviv dancing at nightclubs or just going about their lives normally without realizing it's hundreds of kilometers from the front) 

N: Right now, as of May/June 2024, the hottest regions are Rakhine, Kachin and Karen. The Northen Shan front is quiet due to the fragile ceasefire agreement. In April, KNLA and allied PDF forces launched assault on Thingang Nyinaung and the border town of Myawaddy. The assault, while successful in taking Thingang Nyinaung, failed to takeover Myawaddy due to the presence of powerful mafia BGF who was helping Sit-Tat after backstabbing the resistance forces. Sit-Tat launched the Operating Aung Zeya to reopen the Asian Highway with over 5 divisions in strength but got bogged down and trapped in the Dawna mountains. The successful defense of resistance forces against Op Aung Zeya would be a game changer for the entire south eastern front. Should Sit-Tat achieve their goal of reaching Myawaddy and reopen the Asian Highway, the resistance forces may be forced to withdraw further into the south. This will set back several months of progress.

On the other hand, should the OP Aung Zeya be defeated, it would mean the entire fighting capacity of Sit-Tat would be crippled for years to come. They have reportedly deployed all their reserves and resources, and are personally led by SAC top deputy Soe Win. So, the success of failure of this Operation is critical for both sides. By the latest update, the Junta forces are still trapped halfway on top of Dawna Mountain with up to 30% of their initial forces either killed or injured.

Taking advantage of Sit-Tat's own occupation with Op Aung Zeya, the KIA has launched their own new assaults in Kachin. By the end of April, KIA has captured more than 100 outposts and several critical bases along Myitkyina-Bhamo road. The symbolic victory is the assault on Outpost Gidon. The Gidon outpost was originally build by KIA. In December 2016, Sit-Tat forces captured it after several months of heavy and costly fighting on the strategic outpost. The victory was hailed by domestic pro-Junta media for several monthes. It was a major propaganda win for the Junta and huge defeat for KIA, at the time. KIA retook the camp in under 30 hours. This is how far the Sit-Tat have fallen. Now KIA is threatening both strategic towns of Bhamo and Myitkyina. We will see where things go in the coming weeks

On the western front in Rakhine, the AA has also achieved several major victories. They have finally taken full control of the entire border with Bangladesh. AA has also spread their forces into southern Rakhine where there had been little to no fighting ever before. With AA victories, come significant reports against the Rohingya people. There are reports of AA troops burning Rohingya villages. The town of Butheedaung is also reportedly on fire. We still don't know who set the fire, but we know the AA has shown the same rhetoric as SAC against the Rohingya people. 

However, it is important to note that AA is the rising power and the Junta is the waning power in Rakhine. AA in Rakhine. So we should note that it is in the interest of the AA to live peacefully withthe Rohingya people. Not to sow divisions between the two peoples. It is in the interest of the Sit-Tat to divide and rule.

There are still many rampart accusations from all sides. Some Rohingya are also reportedly collaborating with sit-tat to attack AA and burn down Rakhine villages too. There were videos of Rohingyas wearing sit-tat uniforms and burning houses so this is clearly a complicated situation.  -- End of Q&A

Since this conversation with Nicholas, AA has captured the Thandwe Airport, reportedly the first airport captured by Myanmar rebels since 1949. Thandwe Airport services the beach resort town of Ngapali. The KIA and PDF have also continued to advance into Junta held territory. Additionally, for more information on the plight of the Rohingya people in Myanmar, click here