When Kamala Harris burst onto the scene as the new presumptive nominee this summer there was a ton of enthusiasm. Pundits and supporters alike were marveling at the new-found energy on the campaign trail, even prompting some to say she was running the “perfect” campaign. That wasn't really true then. Lately, it seems like the complete opposite is happening with the legacy media frustrated by the “dodging” by the Harris campaign and some supporters frustrated by Harris not breaking with her boss or tacking to the center. This has created an illusion that Harris is “blowing this”. And that isn't really true now. We’ll take a look at where the race is, where it was, and where this kind of reaction might be coming from.

First, where has the race been and where is it now? Over the summer, Biden had pulled to just about even before his disastrous debate in late June. Now, even if the race stayed in around tied nationally, it is not going to cut it for a Democratic presidential nominee. Four years ago, Biden won by 4.5% nationally and only won by less than one percent in the tipping point state of Wisconsin. Split Ticket’s polling average with Harris begins on July 21st, and she hasn’t trailed since July 31st. As of October 11th, Harris has a 2.7% lead over Donald Trump. Two months ago, on August 11th, Harris was, at the time, tied for her largest lead yet at 2.3%. Right in between those two dates she led by three points. So, it seems pretty stable, no? Well, yes and no. Undeniably, Harris had her best three-plus week stretch of her campaign starting with the Democratic National Convention and running through mid-September. Perhaps not surprisingly as she had a whirlwind first month as the presumptive nominee before being coronated in Chicago. This was pretty euphoric time for her supporters. They were riding high in the wake of Biden dropping out and Harris very successfully uniting the party around her and drawing huge crowds almost immediately. From August 20th to September 12th, Harris led by three points or more in their average. In the time since the beginning of her convention, Harris has moved 2.5 points closer to fifty percent. It certainly has gotten a little tighter at the national level, but not terribly so.

We know the president isn’t elected by the popular vote, so what is the story in the swing states? In 2020, the Electoral College bias, the difference between the national vote and the tipping point state, was just under four points. We suspect that won’t be the case this year. While it will almost certainly still favor Donald Trump, it will likely be at least a point smaller. Right now, VoteHub projects the EC Bias to be 2.3% (we have it at 2.5%). That’s cutting it pretty close, so perhaps there is reason to be concerned if you are a Harris supporter. That was true a month ago too though. She currently leads in all the states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes, if only by a little bit. Her best opportunity to get the necessary electoral votes remains the upper Midwest “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A month ago, Pennsylvania basically tied with Harris up just a tenth of a point. Since then, Harris has had roughly a point lead, which is where it remains. Wisconsin, on the other hand, was polling closer to a four-point lead around that time and is now closer to one. Michigan is now right between the two. These states usually move, more or less, in unison so the polling a couple months ago in Wisconsin always seemed a little too high for me. It should be said, 538 has all three states giving Harris a lead below one point. It’s a close race.

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As we were saying, this is a close race. Split Ticket has given Harris win probabilities moving only two points since late September (57% to 55%). 538’s model has Harris down to 53%. There we just established it some more… But let’s be real, with less than a month to go you would much rather be the side up in the right states than not. So, with that in mind, why has there been such a “vibe shift” over the last couple weeks or so? I think there are a few possible reasons. One is, put simply, Democrats are anxious. This was true in every election I’ve been politically aware enough to follow, save 2008. It just can’t be overstated how much this is true. On top of that, there will never be a time when some unnamed Democrat won’t give a quote to the press about what is going wrong with the party or the campaign. And there are plenty of publications perfectly happy to print that quote uncritically. This is a fact of life, and paired together you get a doom loop. Or maybe put another way, a loop full of doomers. That isn’t to say there aren’t things to criticize about the campaign. There are things to criticize about every campaign. On the other side of the aisle is a different story, and especially so with Donald Trump and Maga. He, in all things, projects strength and inhibits a delusional confidence. You can see how combined that could change perception even if nothing changes. Now, on Democrat’s anxiety. That anxiety is fully warranted. There is real fear about what would happen in a second Trump term. Fear about the polls being wrong again. Fear about what he might do with regards to his authoritarian tendencies and what policies he may pursue that are antithetical to a Democrat's values. So this article is not meant to claim the anxiety is misplaced, but it can reveal itself in ways that are not so helpful to the top of their preferred ticket. 

Additionally, some divisions have opened up in the Democratic coalition. There has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not Harris will break with Biden on any issues (particularly with regards to Israel), and many have taken issue with her answers when asked this. It’s understandable to ask these questions or not be thrilled with her answer so far, which has been basically no. Afterall, Biden is not popular at all, even if he has gained a little since dropping out of the race. There comes a conundrum for vice presidents when you take credit for the successes you, more or less, inherit the failures too. It’s not easy to separate yourself from the administration. On top of that, they haven't loved the areas where she has chosen to split with Biden. With a recent proposal from Harris to have a bipartisan counsel of advisors and a Republican in her cabinet. Though, it hasn’t been just on separating, or not, from Biden that Harris has gotten dinged on lately. There was a lot of chatter about Harris appearing with Liz Cheney and celebrating the endorsement from Dick Cheney. Which again, it makes sense people on the left are not particularly thrilled with this (which honestly may boost Harris with right of center voters). This isn’t anything new. Joe Biden welcomed Republican endorsements, Hilary Clinton welcomed them, Barack Obama welcomed them, and… uh you get the picture. Though, many think it is indicative of the campaign Harris is running, which has tacked toward the center on a number of issues. Which again, is kinda just what you do. Everyone would probably be happier if they just accepted that their beliefs and the beliefs of the American people do not align on everything, or most things.

Lastly, there has been a compressed election season inside a much longer election season which saw extremely low lows to extremely high highs for Democrats. There was literal despair going on in late June and July, followed by an almost euphoric period which ran from post Biden dropping out until mid-September. Harris supporters have just come back down to earth. That might feel like you’re headed down directionally. But that’s just because your high has worn off and you're in equilibrium again. Things were going great in August and September. The rallies were huge, Harris was getting mostly glowing reviews, the Convention went great. Since then, the press has not been happy with her media schedule. You can understand why the press might feel that way as they are the press. There are factional issues rearing their heads. These are the things that happen during a campaign for president. And, as we discussed earlier, equilibrium for a Democrat in October is one of panic

We have to be honest with ourselves. The race is very close with Harris narrowly leading. Perhaps this “vibecession” is just Harris supporters seeing the race with fresh eyes, or perhaps it is their typical anxiety, or maybe the race isn’t where they thought it would be. Or it could be that people are bored. Whatever it is there doesn’t seem to be much cause for it in the data so far. That isn’t to say Harris is going to win. This is closer than Biden four years ago or even Clinton eight years ago. And, at the end of the day, this race won't be determined by vibes it will be determined to votes.