This election season has been like spending six months in the Vegas Sphere - disorientating, surreal, and far, far too long. Yet, through it all the race stayed, more or less, stable with the exceptions of a disastrous debate in June and a dramatic rebound for Democrats in late July. At least that is where the polling industry consensus has arrived. We’ll go through our ratings, explain how we arrived at these decisions and hopefully along the way provide the reader with insights they need to be prepared for what is sure to be a dramatic election night.

President

At the beginning of this campaign through late July, Biden consistently trailed by a narrow margin. Not a great position to be in under any circumstances. Made worse by a terrible debate and fears of an electoral college bias, the difference between the popular vote and the tipping point state, that might match 2020 (close to four points). Biden eventually relented and endorsed Harris. The question becomes, will Biden’s poor approval rating rub off on Harris? Incumbents the world over have been plagued by low approval ratings in the wake of the pandemic and the inflation that followed. Maybe it is because inflation has cooled or maybe it is because she isn’t 80. But Harris saw her approval rating skyrocket upon becoming the presumptive nominee even as she, more or less, continued the Biden re-elect campaign. She has a different tone and a few new people, but she has rarely broken with the president. The biggest break honestly has been that she’ll have a Republican in her cabinet. After a whirlwind first month, Harris officially became the nominee in Chicago. She saw her biggest lead in the three weeks after the convention, before narrowing to around a point to point and a half lead nationally. 

It would be catastrophic for Harris if the EC bias was similar to 2020 or even 2016 and she was still hovering. Though there is reason to believe it will be smaller this year. Split Ticket and 538 currently show the tipping point to be somewhere around a point to a point and a half. You might have noticed that is around the current lead Kamala Harris has in the polling averages. So to say the least, this is an extremely close race with most election models showing probabilities between 45% and 55% for both candidates, if not exactly 50/50. 

Both Biden and Harris saw their best path to victory running through the upper Midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Commonly referred to as the “Blue Wall”. Even while trailing nationally, Biden was able to hold up pretty well in these states. And once Harris took over, she was able to improve upon his position here. Things haven’t been quite as friendly towards the Democrat’s standard bearer in the swing states within the sunbelt. The 538 polling average has six of the seven swing states within 1.5 points so it goes without saying this could really go either way. 

The issue turf this campaign is being fought over could prove improvement. Harris has been very disciplined, to the chagrin of national political journalists everywhere. Her focus has been on expanding and protecting the right to choose. Whether it be the right to an abortion, the right to not die from a miscarriage, or the right to receive fertility treatment to grow your family. On protecting Obamacare, Medicare and Social Security. Implementing the legislative successes of the Biden administration and further bringing down costs, like housing. 

Trump has been focused on the border and crime as he has for 9 years now. This year is no different, but the reduction in border crossings and tanking the bipartisan border bill this spring may have taken some of the sting out of it. Crime being on the downward trend nationally might also have blunted their impact, but Americans are always worried about crime. The campaign has spent millions on trans ads. Though of note, they also did this in 2022, and it didn't really have the desired effect. And lastly, he's been hitting Harris hard on prices. Though as AdImpact tweeted, since taking the top spot on the ticket, Democrats have outspent Republicans by nearly 500 million dollars.

Now, onto our final ratings. At Pivot Point, our final ratings will not include any toss-ups. We’ll be right or we’ll be wrong, but we’ll register our positions in advance one way or another. We’ve tried hard this election season, and in this article, to hammer home that this is an incredibly close election and to convey the inherent uncertainty in events like this. We think our ratings should reflect our last, best estimation of what will happen based on the available tools, including polling, fundraising, candidate favorability, etc. We’ll go through the battleground states and let you know the states most likely to flip against our ratings.

First, we’ll get to 270 votes and go from there. As we’ve stated Harris will see her best path to the White House running through the Blue Wall states. The question is will they be a Blue Wall or will she merely lose there by the least? 

Michigan 

We see her holding up best in Michigan. This isn’t surprising. President Biden also did best there when it comes to swing states. The state has a new, if potentially short lived, Democratic trifecta. Much has been made about the issues Harris has with Muslim voters given the ongoing war in Gaza and beyond. And the potential issues she has among non-white men. Both could prove true, but Pivot Point will put the state in the Harris column rating it as Leans Harris. Along with Nebraka’s second district and all of the states with at least a Likely D rating bring Harris to 241 electoral votes. 

Parts of Michigan may be looking poor for Democrats in the short term (ex. The Flint area and the Upper Peninsula), but this is far from the whole picture. Democrats are gaining ground in the outer parts of the Detroit metro (ex. Oakland County), the Grand Rapids area, and the Cherry Coast in the state’s northwest. Taken as a whole, Democrats are gaining more than they’re losing. Sure, Harris is likely to lose ground in these places plus Dearborn, but we see her gains as outweighing the losses. 

Arizona 

One of the shocking flips during the 2020 election was Joe Biden flipping Arizona. This time around it is Trump’s best polling state of the seven swing states. This might run counter to intuition given Democrats have basically been winning every statewide election of late. Could Republicans blow it in this state? Yes, of course, that has been the party's default setting of late. With Kari Lake and Blake Masters unable to flip the state in a Democratic president's midterm. We'll be rating it at Leans Trump. Adding together all the states in which we give a rating of at least Likely Trump + Arizona would give Trump 230 electoral votes. 

Why might this be? Some have likened Maricopa County (home to Phoenix, Arizona’s largest county) to that of Clark NV (home to Las Vegas, also Nevada’s largest county). Clark has become reliably Democratic since the Obama era, but the margins in it have become critical. Unlike Las Vegas, however, Phoenix doesn’t have a population that’s constantly in flux. There aren’t casino workers and other temporary residents coming and going; Phoenix’s population is consistently growing and relatively stable, with a mix of all kinds of demographics. 

Whatever is happening in Arizona is hard to nail down. Could Maricopa be swinging notably right for some reason? Absolutely. Both elderly residents or Hispanic voters could be a group where Democrats lose ground. The Hispanic voter explanation seems more likely on paper, given that the state is very Hispanic and polling amongst Hispanics has been spotty at best, and this would also account for shifts in Pima (Tucson) and Yuma counties along the border. 

Nevada

Democrats find themselves in an unfamiliar spot. They are going into election day behind on ballots cast. We won’t know the whole picture until mail ballots dropped off on election day are tallied, and we won’t know that until Wednesday. And, of course, those who turn out on election day. With that said, in a previous article Pivot Point published on the early vote this year, DJ Sokol cautioned against assuming this will be a rerun of 2020. First, as you can see, more Republicans are voting early. And conversely, fewer Democrats are voting early. We are rating Nevada as Lean Harris by a hair. This will likely be incredibly close. Legendary Nevada election analyst Jon Ralston predicts Harris will win by just three tenths of a point. 

Even as Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016, she still carried Nevada, and the state elected Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D). The “Reid Machine” is well known in political circles for getting out the vote in Las Vegas, especially among workers of the casinos. With Reid gone, however, the longevity of the machine is in question. This being said, Nevada is still a growing, relatively diverse state, and Las Vegas isn’t the full picture. Reno (and Carson City to a much lesser extent) is a growing metro that’s become much bluer in recent years. On paper, this is a state Democrats should be winning, and we would expect Harris (narrowly) to do so. 

Georgia and North Carolina

These two states have been stubbornly close this cycle. In 2020, they were separated by nearly two points, but this time around the Split Ticket forecast (different than the polling average) gives Trump a 58% chance to win in both. Harris, and Biden before her, were definitely prioritizing these states. Certainly less than the Blue Wall states that offer Harris her easiest path to 270 Electoral Votes, but next on the list are these two states. Some of that is logistics, Arizona and Nevada are far away from Washington. Some of it is that her opponent is going there a lot. Where it leaves her is in striking distance of winning these states. Curiously, North Carolina has been polling slightly ahead of Georgia despite many analysts feeling Harris has the best shot at holding the Peach State. We rate them both as Lean R bringing Trump up to 262 electoral votes.

In the case of Georgia, Trump’s good polling could be the non-linear effect of the realignment. In 2020, Biden carried the state by under half a percentage point. Realignments often hit in waves, as we saw in 2022, when all of Georgia’s statewide Republicans (besides Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock) won re-election. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Trump flips the state back by a narrow margin, be it due to economic backlash, defection of Black voters (another data point that’s seen conflicting polling), or a slowing of Democrats’ gains in suburban Atlanta. Still, of the Republican-leaning swing states, this is the one that Harris is most likely to retain, but certainly by a narrow margin if that is to be the case.

In contrast, North Carolina has been agonizingly competitive since 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state by an exceptionally narrow margin. As we’ve previously written, Democrats in the state have struggled to hold together parts of their coalition, and have had many defections over the years; the Mountain West in 2012, the Sandhills in 2016, and the Black Belt in 2020. Given widely variable demographic polling and metronome-style polling Presidentially, basically anything could happen. What we do know is that the Harris campaign made the state a priority early on, and that State Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton has seemingly rarely taken a moment to rest, campaigning incessantly for the state party all across the state.

Another scandal that puts the state into further uncertainty is the reach that Mark Robinson’s controversial comments may have. Surely, Democrats have all but locked down the governorship due to Robinson saying, among other things, that he was a , “Black Nazi.” Tying other Republicans to Robinson seems to provide them with at least a moderate boost, suggesting that he’s bringing down the brand. It is also hard to estimate the impact of Hurricane Helene in the Mountain West. Early voting data shows that Democrats are doing well, but this could easily be a residual effect of ancestral partisanship. Still, despite Cherri Beasley (D) losing the race for US Senate in 2022 by 3 points, one area she did better in was the mountains. 

So, what, if anything, should you take away from our assessment of North Carolina? It’ll be a state to watch, but one that Trump is *narrowly* favored in.

Wisconsin

That leaves the state most think will be the tipping point state this year - Pennsylvaia and the tipping point state of four years ago - Wisconsin. There is a very good chance it could happen again, though it has been polling better than Pennsylvania all year for Harris. Democrats have a lot on the line in the state this year. In addition to a must win state for the Harris campaign, they’ll be defending a Senate seat and are running the first election with new legislative maps since the liberals gained a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Democrats are hoping “the vote counting machine go brrr in Dane County, home to the state capitol and the flagship University of Wisconsin. She’ll also need impressive margins out of Milwaukee and the surrounding suburbs. We’re also going to be keeping an eye on the Fox River Valley, home to the critical cities of Green Bay, Oshkosh, and Appleton. At the end of the day, we’re putting it in the column of Kamala Harris at Leans D. 

Pennsylvania 

Looks like it all comes down to the Keystone State. Things have been going pretty well for Democrats in Pennsylvania lately. They now have both Senate seats; they've held the governor’s mansion for three terms in a row. They’ve flipped the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. Not to mention flipping important congressional seats. Though this year, it has consistently polled slightly below its fellow upper Midwest states, and has been the focus of both campaigns. Going into election day, Split Ticket gives Harris just a four tenths of a point lead and 538 dead even. When it’s this close, marginal things can make a big impact. There have been reports of Elon Musk’s super pac having trouble getting 450,000 door knocks before the election, something Democrats were averaging every few hours. This year could be a perfect case study on whether ground games matter at all. Republicans have outsourced theirs to Musk’s utterly buffoonish organization. If it's going to come into play this might be the place. Or other potentially marginal impacts like the Harris ad gauntlet, again likely minimal impact given the money spent on this race, but still she has a lot more of it than Trump does. Or the potential fallout from the Trump MSG rally. The remarks have seemed to break through to a somewhat shocking extent. Pennsylvania has a fairly large Puerto Rican community and the margin in the state might be exceedingly narrow.

Geographically, Pennsylvania is something of a mixed bag. Democrats can afford to be pretty optimistic about the Philadelphia suburban counties, and Allegheny in the west, which make up a ton of their margin. However, the rest of the state is on more uncertain ground. A range of polling outcomes that, as of writing this, has Pennsylvania’s raw odds at 50/50, leaves us uncertain how crucial areas of the state will vote. As for the northeast and the Lehigh Valley, we’ve seen polls that show Democratic Congressional incumbents leading, and Harris not far behind them. Polls also show a decent Democratic performance inbound from the Harrisburg area, where Rep. Scott Perry (R) is fighting for his political life against Democrat Janelle Stetson. 

However, Democrats are on more uncertain turf in much of the state’s rural areas and the city centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Harris is sure to lose the former and win the latter two, but the margins of which are important. In 2020, Democrats lost ground significantly in urban centers with diverse minority populations, and rural areas were a mixed bag. If Harris can retain her African American and Hispanic support (especially gaining amongst Puerto Rican voters) then she’ll be in a good spot on that front. Rural-wise, it seems likely that Harris will at least lose some ground, especially in the southwest of the state, which has been trending Republican since the Obama years. We think it Leans Harris by a nose and with it our final presidential ratings will show Kamala Harris being rated at least Leans D in enough states to become the 47th President of the United States... Now, we just have to see how it holds up.

Final Thoughts on Presidential Race

We see Harris as a narrow favorite to win. She has a clear path to the necessary electoral votes even if it is a narrow one. We believe these ratings represent the most likely outcome, but in a close race like this either side could easily sweep all the swing states if polls are off by only a couple of points in either direction. And unfortunately, there’s no way to know in advance if there will be a polling error or, if so, which direction it will be in. There has been a lot of fear among anxious Democrats and polling outfits alike that polls will undershoot Trump for a third election in a row. And they certainly could. But there might be reason to suspect they will actually undershoot Democrats this time. The NYT’s Nate Cohn said on Twitter, “many pollsters have adopted heavy-handed practices that yield more Republican-leaning samples out of potentially, but not necessarily, justified fear of systematically failing to reach Trump voters.” Along these lines, Ann Seltzer, the legendary pollster, found in her final poll before election day Harris leading in Iowa by three points. Seltzer has a habit of showing results others don’t and then being right. Now, that isn’t to say Harris is going to win Iowa. Seltzer isn’t immune to being wrong. But she also isn’t herding, something you can’t say for most pollsters this election season. Herding right around tied. In a year with fewer polling to start with. To restate, we don't know which direction any potential polling error would go, but Cohn’s comment and the Seltzer poll could point to the polling averages missing some Harris voters. 

If Harris does end up overshooting her are there other pieces of data that might show that? Well, Harris had outrageous fundraising. Democrats, in general, have been fundraising absolute juggernauts. Harris has a much higher favorability rating, even if Trump's is higher than usual. Harris saw hers skyrocket immediately upon becoming the presumptive nominee. She has fought Trump to a draw on typically strong Republican issues like the economy. We've seen initial indications that the Trump Madison Square Garden Rally has really broken through for Puerto Ricans at a minimum. If Trump doe better than expected, we'll have two previous polling errors in his direction. There is an unpopular Democratic incumbent. In fact, incumbents across the world have had chronically low approval ratings in the wake of the pandemic and inflation. Speaking of inflation, high prices could be another reason Trump overperforms. Even though inflation is currently at 2.5% over the last year, the damage was done in 2021-23. And on top of all of this, there doesn't need to be a drastic polling error to see one of these candidates sweep all the important states. A normal polling error could see either candidate win all seven.

We’ll find out soon enough. On election night, we will be watching to see how Harris is doing in “Counties To Watch” article that we’ve published at Pivot Point. Seeing how the candidates do compared to the numbers four years ago will be helpful. As a note, when looking at election results, it’s best not to make inferences about the election based on impartial results. We’ll be looking for completed counties to see what the delta is between this year and four years ago. 

Counties To Watch 1.0

Counties To Watch 2.0

Counties To Watch 3.0

Senate

Moving to the upper chamber of Congress, the Democrats definitely are playing a lot of defense. Class 1 Democratic senators have had four-ish good cycles in a row. 2000 was undeniably a great year for Democrats, at least in the Senate. They flipped six seats (a net of four). In 2006, they flipped six more. 2012 was a more modest success with a net of two gained seats. This would be the last cycle Democrats held the Senate until 2020. The ish, isn’t really that much of an ish, but four Democratic senators did go down in 2018 in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida. Which no one can really fault them for, except maybe in Florida where Rick Scott won an excruciatingly close race. On the other hand, the party was able to hold seats in Montana, West Virginia and the four states in the upper Midwest that Trump was able to flip. The three Blue Wall states and Ohio. And they were able to flip two seats in the Southwest. The Democrats are a victim of their own success here. Over the last four cycles for Class 1 senators, Democrats picked up ten seats.

So, what does that mean for the here and now? On one hand, the Republicans are set to take the chamber. On the other hand, Democrats are defending seven seats in states Trump won either once or twice and they might only win two of them. One if Democrats have a particularly good night. Republicans have had trouble fielding quality candidates, especially during the Trump era. Whether they swoop into town in order to run (which seems to keep happening), are perennial candidates, or are just plain bad. The judgment is yet to be handed down on this year’s batch, but there are certainly some glaring issues for Republicans. Kari Lake getting the Republican Senate nomination while still maintaining she won the gubernatorial race two years ago is a perfect example. Or David McCormick who recently mixed up the Eagles and the Steelers lending credence to the, credible, attacks of being a “carpetbagger”. Or Tim Sheehy, who can’t seem to figure out how exactly he got shot. As far as polling goes, this year’s class of Republican Senate nominees is currently underperforming Trump across the board giving Democrats an outside chance at pulling off an upset and retaining the majority. 

Blue Wall States (WI, MI, PA)

We’re rating the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania at Lean D. The delta between the president and senate has narrowed in these three states, but the Democrats are still ahead in each by a slightly less than comfortable margin. Split Ticket gives the three Democrats leads ranging from 2.8 to 4.2 points. Casey in Pennsylvania and Slotkin in Michigan are at the top of that range and Baldwin is at the lower end. At the end of the day, (though we don’t know which day), we expect them all to win. They have all led consistently the entire race, though as noted it has tightened of late.

Of these three races, we would most confidently expect Democrats to hold Pennsylvania. Bob Casey Jr. has a much more well-established brand, as he took his current Senate seat in 2006, held other state positions prior to that, and still likely benefits (at least a bit) from the legacy of his father in state politics. Baldwin on paper should be second, but polling in ever-competitive Wisconsin has made that uncertain. Baldwin has held her seat since 2012, defeating former Governor Tommy Thompson as a sitting Congresswoman. Elissa Slotkin, however, has been consistently out-polling Mike Rogers, who appears to be suffering from the effect of being a generic, no-name Congressman from the rural northern part of the Lower Peninsula. Slotkin, conversely, has made political splashes, being part of the Democratic wave-class of House Reps. elected in 2018, enamoring people as the CIA-agent and Obama-appointee turned politician. 

Southwest (AZ, NV, NM)

In the Southwest, the picture is even better for Democrats. While we still rate them at Lean D, these would certainly be closer to Likely D than Tossup (if we were using tossups). Split Ticket’s polling average shows the Democratic candidate in Arizona and Nevada with leads of at least six points. Given Arizona’s current polling in the presidential race, Ruben Gallego is doing particularly well. Jackie Rosen in Nevada maintains an even larger lead against veteran Sam Brown, despite the razor-thin Presidential race in the state. Even though New Mexico has been on Republicans’ radar due to favorable trends amongst Hispanic voters, little attention has been given to the state, where Senator Martin Heinrich (D) appears to be gliding to re-election.

Had Republicans nominated a “normal” candidate (whatever that looks like these days), we might be talking about them flipping back Jeff Flake’s old seat. However, former anchorwoman and Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) has run an acrimonious campaign, trashing anyone and everyone standing in her way of reaching the US Senate. Democrats nominated the polar opposite; veteran and Congressman Rueben Gallego, who has run a pretty run-of-the-mill campaign for the era. Lake has continued to dig herself a hole, and Gallego has stolen her metaphorical dirt.

Nevada doesn’t appear to make sense on paper. Incumbent Democratic Senator Rosen, once a US Rep. for the ever-swingy 3rd district, has led in the vast majority of polls. Brown’s best showing in a poll was a 1-point lead from a Republican-aligned pollster. Given how the state is looking Presidentially, Brown should at least have a decent shot at flipping the seat, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. While we can’t be sure what Nevadans are thinking, it may be unfortunate for Brown that he sustained severe facial burns during his military service. Voters can be superficial, and while Brown deserves to have his policies assessed based on their own merit, his appearance may be hurting him in the polls. 

Majority Makers (TX, FL, OH, MT, NE)

So, that’s five seats Republicans really should be fighting hard to get. Lucky for them, they have a very high floor in the Senate. We’ll now get into the “majority makers” that will determine which party has the gavels. These five races include three Republican seats, two Democratic seats. We are rating the race in Florida at Likely R and the race in Texas at Leans R. National Democrats waited until late in the cycle to invest in these states, but late in the race the Senate Majority Pac, the super pac affiliated with Senate Democrats, began spending in the state. Though much more in Texas. We’ll see if this late investment and Colin Allred’s impressive fundraising and his campaigning can get him over the top, but Cruz has the advantage going into election day. In Florida, Scott is further ahead than Cruz is in Texas, but the Tony Hincliffe comments on Puerto Ricans seems to have actually broken through. Will that translate to changed votes? If so, will it spread beyond Trump? We won’t know until Tuesday, but if it does this Senate race will be one of the first places to look. If these ratings hold, this would bring Senate Republicans to 49 seats.

In a surprise to everyone, Sherrod Brown has been narrowly leading throughout his reelection effort in Ohio. His opponent, Bernie Moreno, is no one’s idea of a great candidate, but the state’s partisan lean is an uphill battle for Brown to say the least. The fact that he’s still leading has to give Democrat’s confidence they’ll at least have a puncher’s chance to retain the majority. We’re rating the Ohio Senate at Lean D which would bring Democrats to 49 seats.

Brown has been no stranger to tough races, but he’s ultimately prevailed in both so far for his Senate seat. He fended off Josh Mandel in 2012 (while losing a lot of ground from his 2006 landslide) and Jim Renacci in 2018. Brown has had to reckon with the changing political landscape of the state, losing much of his early Appalachian support, and now much of his support from the Mahoning Valley and Lake Erie-area communities. Democrats have seen gains along the I-71 corridor and in the more educated suburbs of Cleveland and Akron, but Brown is going to need all of his political skill to piece together a winning coalition out of the old components and the new. Can he pull it off though? We think so.

That just leaves the remaining Democratic incumbent, Jon Tester, seeking his fourth term, against Tim Sheehy and the race between Independent Dan Osborn and the Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Republicans start with a big head start in both these states. Trump won both of these states by 16+ and 19+ points respectively. Jon Tester has survived more suicide missions than Ethan Hunt… Well, not really, they have made a lot of those movies, but you get the point. This year, he might just be too tall a task. Polling averages have been showing him down consistently since early August. 538 and Split Ticket have him down between 4.5 and 5.3 with 538 being more pessimistic on his chances. We are rating this race at Leans Sheehy. Though the Republican candidate seems to be sputtering into election day dogged by questions about how he ended up with a gunshot wound that even Megyn Kelly called “so confusing”. And then there is the question of how much of the Democratic ground game advantage nationally will come into play in this race and how will that translate into votes. If any at all. Things like this have marginal impact, but in a small state like Montana marginal impacts can end up mattering in the end. Tester could pull off an upset, but he would need a really good night. If Harris is able to sweep the swing states, Tester might just have enough wind at his back.

So, Republicans are in a pretty solid position to take the majority outright, yeah? Well, in what should be a safe Republican state, Dan Osborn is giving Deb Fischer a run for her money. He has been down by between 2.4 and 3.4 in the aforementioned polling averages. There have been supposed close calls before with Independent candidates running for Senate. In Utah and next door in Kansas candidates were polling close to their Republican incumbent opponents, but ended up losing by about ten and a half points. That could certainly happen again. Osborn is only down by a couple points, but he’s only at around 44%. How the late deciding voters break will be decisive. We have this rated at Leans R, but Osborn could certainly win. Watch his margin compared to Harris. He’s going to have to outrun her basically everywhere by a large margin. What would happen if Osborn won is an interesting question to consider, even if not the most likely outcome. He has pledged to not caucus with either party. If he follows through with that the breakdown of the Senate would be 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 1 Dan Osborn. Republicans would hold the majority even if Tim Walz ends up being the President of the Senate. If he’s able to win, it’ll be interesting to see what he ultimately does.

Republicans are likely to take the Senate, though probably not as heavy favorites as they’d like to be. Democrats have a puncher’s chance in three states rated as Lean Republican. If they can nab one of those and Sherrod Brown holds on in Ohio, they could grab the majority. It wouldn’t be the first time Democrats pulled off a miracle, but they’ll go into election night as the underdogs.

House

The race for the House has been a fairly back-and-forth game, with each party polling in the lead at different times. Democrats have the advantage relative to the previous decade in that the national map doesn’t penalize them as badly, as Republican gerrymandering has been undone or curbed in a handful of states. Granted, Democrats lost the House on the current map in a Republican favoring midterm, but this year, they’re favored to retake it.

Overall, we have Democrats favored to net 11 seats in the House. Democrats appear to be doing a much better job at holding their own seats, as of the two we have as flipping to Republicans (Slotkin’s and Golden’s seats), only one has an incumbent running.

Republicans are likely to end up holding a handful of Democratic seats; Reps. Valadao, Ciscomani Kiggans, Lawler, Steel, Fitzpatrick, and LaLota are favored to win re-election narrowly. Democrats, conversely, will likely retain four Republican leaning seats through Reps. Peltola, Glusenkamp-Perez, Kaptur, and Cartwright. 

Where are Democrats favored to gain? California and New York proved to be fatal to Democrats attempting to retain the House in 2022, but this go around, they appear to be the propellant for them to retake it. Between the two states, Democrats are poised to net six seats. The remaining seven are in Montana (with the 1st flipping due to Tester on the ballot and the seat trending left), Arizona (with base partisanship catching up to the 1st), two in Iowa (in Ann Selzer we trust), Nebraska (Bacon getting fried), Pennsylvania (Scott Perry going down), and New Jersey (Altman winning the seat in spite of national Dems dragging their feet).

Republicans gaining two seats is less a testament towards any sort of electoral prowess, and more so the base partisanship of districts coming to be. In Maine, we have Jared Golden going down. His shift in stance on gun control is not going to help him in Republican leaning turf. Could he pull off a win via the “nice young man” effect? Yes, but that’ll be an uphill battle. In Michigan, with Elissa Slotkin vacating her seat for a Senate run, her old slightly Republican-leaning seat is favored to flip. Granted, the majority of the polling has been from Republican-biased pollsters, but the face off between two candidates with State Senate experience appears to be breaking in the Republican’s favor (Barrett). 

Where are Democrats favored to narrowly hold on in narrow seats? Heavily Hispanic seats in the South and West appear to be iffy ground for them right now, producing a lot of Leans Democratic seats. Some suburban or mixed-character seats in the midwest are on slightly iffy ground, but for the most part better than other competitive turf. Black Belt seats are for the most part secure, but Rep. Don Davis (D) of North Carolina is in for a fight, albeit a fight that he’s favored to win.

What about Republicans? We see a handful of seats in the Mountain West that aren’t looking good for them long term, but that aren’t favored to flip this go around. They have a few seats in the Upper Midwest of varying character that appear to be in their column going into tonight. Republicans only have a handful of red-leaning seats along the Eastern Seaboard, but for the most part, those are favored to stay.

What about wave watches? What if Harris wins by a lot more than expected? Or what if Trump somehow pulls off a popular vote win?

If Kamala wins in this fashion, we should see a handful of areas with competitive House seats serve as indicators. Places like Orange County in California, the Tampa Bay area, and the Poconos in PA and NJ favor Democrats by undeniable margins. On Trump’s end, we might see Democrats in Nevada, South Texas, and the Black Belt fall or see some tough races, along with some suburban seats that might see upset flips.

Governorships

In terms of the small group of governorships up this year, we expect to see very little competition. At the start of the cycle, Republicans had hoped to flip North Carolina’s governorship, but given Mark Robinson’s scandals, that is fully off the board. We have the seat at Safe Democratic.

The only flip we expect to see is in New Hampshire, and it’ll be a nail-biter. Republican Chris Sununu is retiring, and former US Senator Kelly Ayotte is the Republican nominee for his replacement. Ayotte, however, seems to be running a campaign that strays from her moderate roots, and has had a handful of gaffes on the campaign trail. It’ll be a close one, but we favor Joyce Craig to regain the seat for Democrats.

The only other seat worth watching was a latecomer in the competitive world: Indiana. During the pre-Trump era, Democrats were much more competitive in the state, and came close to winning the governorship a few times. Now, Senator Mike Braun (R) has shown signs of struggle against former State SPI Jenniffer McCormick (D). McCormick used to be a Republican, which is likely part of why Braun is struggling a bit. A handful of polls have shown Braun within the margin of error, and while we think he’ll ultimately win the office, we rate the seat as Likely Republican, since an upset appears to be possible.