Northern Kentucky has long been one of the most conservative regions in the state. The suburbs that grew across the river from Cincinnati (in Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties) provided Republicans a solid edge federally from the Eisenhower administration to the present. Eventually, the more rural turf (Gallatin, Grant, Pendleton, and Bracken counties) swung to Republicans as well, giving them total regional dominance. The area is very ethnically German and Catholic, which skew fairly conservative for this area of the Midwest. Since the late 60’s, KY-04 has only been represented by a Democrat in Congress for three terms (1999-2005 under former Rep. Ken Lucas of Florence), and has been held by notable Republicans such as former US Senator Jim Bunning and currently by libertarian firebrand Thomas Massie. 

So, what inspired this piece? Political conditions have begun to rapidly change in suburbs around the country. While they once brought Republicans to power in the 1994 Republican Revolution, they are now shifting significantly to Democrats. The aforementioned counties currently contain 10% of the state’s population, and a fair State House map would see two Democratic-leaning districts.

In 2019, Andy Beshear, then the state’s Attorney general, held this formerly solidly red extension of the Cincinnati metropolitan area to nearly 5-points, flipped Campbell County by a few points, and narrowly flipped Kenton County. The map below illustrates the deep blue hue spreading out from Covington, and into some of the area’s suburbs like Fort Thomas, Independence, and Florence. Some more rural areas, Warsaw in Gallatin County and Brooksville in Bracken County, also saw Beshear flip precincts.

To win in November, Beshear will likely need to outperform his 2019 numbers. The suburban shifts haven’t stopped, and rural areas haven’t halted their drift away from Democrats. It stands to reason that, given the ongoing realignment, Beshear is going to lose a significant amount of ground in rural areas (save those struck by natural disasters or those seeing economic projects). The suburbs are where the ground has to give.

In Northern Kentucky, Beshear stands well-positioned to do this, and potentially carry the above region at large. With funds from the American Rescue Act, Beshear was able to help secure funds to replace the Brent Spence Bridge, which serves as a vital transportation artery for the region. He has made travel to the area a priority, making campaign stops and cutting ribbons across the Core Three counties (Boone, Campbell, and Kenton). The governor also has an advantage on the airwaves over his opponent, with NBC News finding that Beshear has around $12 million in ads highlighting him and his accomplishments as Governor, whereas Cameron has had $4.2 million in ads during the same timeframe. Given that Northern Kentucky is a sizable portion of the state’s population and part of the Golden Triangle, (along with Lexington and Louisville) they have been bombarded by ads. 

So, what might Beshear winning the area look like? The precinct map likely wouldn’t be exceedingly different.  Let’s look at the region’s current State House map, shaded by Beshear’s margin of victory in 2019 (Courtesy of VEST and Dave’s Redistricting)

In the State House, Beshear won four seats in 2019: the 65th and 67th by substantial margins, and the 64th and 69th more narrowly. Trump likely won all of these seats in 2020 (likely given the lack of precise data for 2020), and only the 67th has a Democratic Rep. (Rachel Roberts of the 67th). The area was gerrymandered after 2020 to attempt to oust Democratic Reps. Robert and Wheatley (of the 65th), who lost re-election and is now running for Secretary of State.

Beshear winning the region next month will likely hinge on him winning a majority of the region’s 10 seats, and the path of least resistance to do so is to flip districts 63 and 68.

The 68th in Campbell County, only voted for Bevin by under a point in 2019. It contains that rapidly-Dem-trending communities of Fort Thomas and Alexandria, which as the two largest cities in the county can more than outweigh Cold Spring, Highland Heights, and the more rural turf to the south. Democrats in the past have also been able to count on the support of the river cities of Silver Grove and Melbourne, but they match the demographics of communities trending away from Democrats, so their level of support is uncertain.

The 63rd, however, is a bit more of a reach for the governor. Bevin won the seat by nearly three points, and the district’s largest whole community is Villa Hills, which is much wealthier than much of the 68th district. However, it does have areas around CVG, the region’s main airport, which have a growing minority community. The river cities of Bromley and Ludlow also clock in more liberal than the region at large, and that would work to Beshear’s advantage in this seat, as well as a small portion of Covington being included in this iteration of the seat.

Can Beshear do this? Yes, with the caveat that his ground game is good. As we saw in 2020, a factor in Democrats’ losses in Congress were due to the lack of in-person canvassing. Throughout the state, Beshear is doing a pretty good job at this, since he has a sizable war-chest on his own and from the Kentucky Democratic Party (KDP). Per the Kentucky Lantern, as of mid-September, the candidates had the following amounts of money from different sources:

Beshear-

1. $5.8 million raised since May

2. $6.2 million on hand from pre-primary

3. $3 million from the Kentucky Democratic Party (KDP)

4. Total: $15 million, of which over $10 million has been spent

Cameron-

1. $2.35 million raised since May

2. $15,500 on hand from pre-primary 

3. $450,000 from the Republican Party of Kentucky (RPK)

4. Total: $2.8 million, half of which has been spent

Financially, Beshear has Cameron extremely outgunned, and this is even before spending from outside groups have been factored in (which can also be seen within the Lantern article). Both candidates are still raising funds, but Cameron may find it impossible to overcome Beshear’s advantage of carpeting the major metros of the state in ads, and having done so while he was bogged down in a competitive primary.

In Northern Kentucky, however, the campaign's organizational prowess may be lagging behind the rest of the state. Beshear has his regional HQ set up in Latonia, a neighborhood of Covington, which is a good move. There have been rumors in democratic circles that the ground game is limited primarily to Kenton County. Campbell and Boone need comparable attention, and putting all one’s eggs in the Kenton basket is risky. Campbell was the most favorable of the three to Beshear, but is also the smallest, and size does have an impact in campaign strategy.

Governor Beshear can absolutely win the state. There just isn't much ground he can afford to lose, and a lot he needs to gain. We rate this race as Lean Democratic. 

As a general update, here are our county predictions for next month:

Flips:

Beshear- Nelson, Boyle, Oldham, and Bourbon

Cameron- Nicholas, Breathitt, and Knott

Beshear’s main regions of offense are the Southeast and Central KY, which will be covered in a later article. Suburban shifts and disaster relief work in his favor in these places, and he’s got the opportunity to hold the line, if not expand it a bit. Though at this point, the smaller counties in the East aren’t looking good for him. This is where Cameron will  go on the offense, as well as potentially flipping Henderson County, where his LG nominee hails from

  Be on the lookout for Pivot Point's breakdown of Kentucky's remaining regions.  

Editor's note: Chris Kirkwood is from Fort Thomas, Kentucky