With Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the Presidential race a month ago, Democrats seem to have new hope injected into them. Polling has shown that Kamala Harris is running well ahead of Biden’s numbers in key states, and is at least favored to win a majority of the popular vote having gained five points on Trump since Biden's exit. If Harris wins the presidency, Senate control will likely determine the extent to her legislative success in the first two years. This article aims to give an overview of the battle for the Senate, and provide an insight into the races happening this fall.

Democrats are playing defense with Class 1 Senate. In 2018, when Democrats retook control of the House of Representatives, they lost a handful of Senate winnable seats of this class. For a long time, Democrats significantly overperformed with this Senate class, which contains mainly Great Lakes, Northeast, and Plains states. In 2018, Democrats lost seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri, which would be unthinkable for a Democrat to win in this day and age. They also lost Florida by an exceptionally narrow margin, a sign of the troubles to come within the next six years. 

2018, however, was a good year overall for Democrats. In addition to retaking the House, they gained a net of six governorships, established trifectas in seven states, and brought divided government (controlling one legislative chamber or the governorship) to another four states. This goes to show the Senate was not created equal. The Senate map skews to the right even further than the Electoral College and much more than the House. The Senate map, considering how lopsidedly Democrats held an advantage with Class 1 seats, was in retrospect, also a success. In terms of federal partisanship, Democrats have no business holding seats in Montana or West Virginia, but they managed to hold both states narrowly. While also holding onto their seats in key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (all of which Trump had won in 2016), Democrats flipped Republican-held seats in Arizona and Nevada. Democrats even made efforts to go on the offensive, with Beto O’Rourke holding Texas Senator Ted Cruz to about a two-point margin, Mike Espy coming within striking distance of a seat in a special election in Mississippi vs Cindy Hyde-Smith, and former Governor Phil Bredesen of Tennessee cutting Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s margin to around 10% in one of the reddest states in the county. Even in the seats that Democrats lost, they vastly outperformed the seats’ Presidential partisanship.

The State of the Things

Of the 34 seats up this year, the vast majority of them are already off the board for one party or another. This includes one automatic flip: West Virginia. With Senator Joe Manchin (a Democrat turned Democratic-caucusing Independent) retiring, popular Governor Jim Justice (R) is almost certain to win the seat. West Virginia has become one of the reddest states in the country, and it is a testament to Manchin that Democrats have been able to hold that Senate seat for so long. A list of these off-the-table seats is shown in the chart below. 

Minnesota may not usually warrant a safe rating if not for Senator Amy Klobuchar (D). Klobuchar. She is notorious for dramatically overperforming the state’s Likely D partisanship, always having won by double digits. To date, Klobuchar has never lost one of the state’s Congressional districts in her statewide bids, but this may not continue even though her win is near-certain.

The Rust Belt

The Rust Belt is likely to see four competitive Senate races, all of which have Democratic incumbents (though only three are running for re-election): Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In two of these states, a Democratic win is much more probable: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Senators Casey and Baldwin are very popular among their constituents, and have had the fortune of drawing weak opponents, both of whom have had their residency in each state drawn into question. Each Senator has moderated on key issues in order to appeal to wider audiences in their respective states, Casey on fracking and abortion (with his father having been Casey in Planned Parenthood v. Casey) and Baldwin on dairy policy/fighting non-animal milk attempting to label itself as “milk”. Both were running well ahead of Biden and are now running well ahead of Harris.

Had Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) of Michigan decided to seek re-election, the race might have started at Likely D, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, with Stabenow’s retirement, Democrats have lost their incumbency advantage. The Democratic nominee will be Congresswoman and former CIA-operative Elissa Slotkin. Slotkin faces Congressman Mike Rogers for the seat, which hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate in two decades. Fortunately for Slotkin, she has positioned herself as a moderate, having represented a swing seat for the entirety of her time in Congress, while managing to remain (mostly) loyal to the Democratic base. Additionally, the Michigan Democratic Party is on a hot streak. Since 2016, they have been rejuvenated. They flipped all the statewide executive offices under the banner of now-Governor Gretchen Whitmer, established an independent redistricting commission to implement fair maps, and retaken both chambers of the state legislature. The Republican bench and morale has, accordingly, been depleted (along with some intraparty fighting). Polls have shown Slotkin leading Rogers by a narrow but consistent margin.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is in the most danger of the four. Ohio, in the last two Presidential elections, has voted for Republicans by around eight points in each and you can bet they will do it again. True, Brown managed to win re-election in 2018 after Trump had carried the state by a sizable margin, but that kind of favorable year will almost certainly not be happening this fall. For context, 2018 was a D+8 year nationwide, and if they match Biden's 2020 run that would just be D+4. Brown faces businessman Bernie Moreno (R)  who has avoided big scandals, but has not been a particularly great candidate. Brown seems to have successfully labeled him as a proverbial “used car salesman." It helps that he actually is a car salesman. Brown’s approval remains above water, and recent polls have him leading Moreno. Moreno is currently trailing Trump by double digits in Ohio, though it's fairly rare to see that with this polarized of an electorate (and there have been very few polls.) We will keep this race at a tossup. 2022 saw Ohio take a sharp lurch to the right, with most statewide offices going to Republicans by around 20 points, instead of the single digits that have become the norm in recent years. If Brown can hype up his image as a moderate, pro-union figure from the heart of the Rust Belt, he might be able to pull this off. But it’s going to be a tough battle with the unforgiving, inelastic nature of Presidential partisanship.

The South

In all likelihood, the South will only see two semi-competitive Senate races this fall: Florida and Texas. These are also the only realistic opportunities for Democrats to gain any Senate seats. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas for decades, and as of 2022, Florida no longer has any statewide-elected Democrats. Both are uphill battles with interesting nuances.

Florida’s Class 1 Senate seat was held by Democrat Bill Nelson until 2018. The former astronaut had pulled off impressive wins in his career, but factors such as now-Senator Rick Scott’s (R) gubernatorial incumbency/name recognition, a lack of Spanish-language ads, and more working than campaigning, caused Nelson to lose by an exceptionally narrow margin. Scott in the past has only ever won by exceptionally narrow margins, and is a controversial figure in Florida politics having agreed to pay 1.7 billion dollars in a Medicare fraud settlement. The current election environment will likely make no exception to this trend. Scott will be facing former Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell from the Miami area, who lost her seat in 2020 while significantly outrunning President Biden amongst Hispanic voters who voted much more Republican in places like Florida than Arizona. With a large Cuban population and other immigrants fleeing oppressive regimes, these voters have trended Republican of late. It remains to be seen what will happen with Hispanic voters after their dramatic shift to the right here in 2020, but running a Hispanic candidate against an unpopular Senator is likely a good strategy. Still, Florida is Florida, so the race begins at Likely Republican, which is further justified by Scotts lead in the polls.

Texas has stood for decades as Republicans’ biggest source of electoral votes. As the realignment of suburban voters towards the Democratic Party has progressed, Texas has come more into play. The state went for Republicans by double digits pre-Trump era, and outside of midterm elections, has typically only provided single digit wins for them since. Ted Cruz almost fell victim to these trends in 2018, winning by just short of two points and these days seemingly more invested in his podcast than the Senate. He faces Democratic Congressman and former NFL player Collin Allred from the Dallas area. Cruz has held an advantage in the limited polls of the state this cycle, but also has more going for him. Some evidence has suggested that candidates with Hispanic surnames have performed better amongst Hispanic voters, as has been seen in Henry Cuellar’s (D) vast overperformance of federal partisanship, and with Beto O’Rourke having dropped just enough from Clinton’s margins in South Texas to possibly cost him the race. As of right now, we’ll rate the race at Leans Republican, but it could trend either way if new polling were to come out. 

The Mountain West

The seat that all eyes are watching in the West is Montana. Senator Jon Tester (D) has defied the odds since 2006, when he unseated incumbent Republican Conrad Burns. In 2012, as Mitt Romney carried the state, Tester won re-election. In 2018, despite fierce Republican opposition, Tester won re-election yet again, this time with a majority of the vote. Montana used to have a relatively politically diverse history, with Democrats and Republicans at times being elected to federal and statewide offices. That era is coming to an end, and Tester is in for the fight of his political career.

Tester is facing off against veteran Tim Sheehy. Sheehy has had many scandals of his own, primarily centering around his residency in Montana, his military service, and whether or not/where he shot himself. Tester, conversely, has had no scandals (unless one counts Trump repeatedly calling him fat), and will likely benefit from a boost due to the recently approved abortion access ballot measure to enshrine the right to choose in the Montana Constitution this November. Though it is possible the ballot measure could allow pro-choice republicans the opportunity to vote for the pro-choice measure and against Tester. Part of Tester’s broad appeal is that he maintains an active farm despite serving in the Senate thousands of miles away. Polling has been neck and neck, so we’ll be rating the seat as a Tossup, but as we get closer to election day, we wouldn't be shocked if we shifted this towards Sheehy. But if you haven't learned by now, you should never count out Jon Tester

Southwest

Another high-profile race west of the Mississippi is in Arizona. Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic party late into her term and re-registered as an Independent, is retiring after polling a distant third. Sinema was in all likelihood sure to face a stiff Democratic primary due to some controversial votes, general dismissiveness towards Democrats and likely saw the political winds shift out of her favor. Rueben Gallego (D), a representative from Phoenix (and used to married to the current Mayor of Phoenix,) secured the Democratic nomination to replace her virtually unopposed, and Kari Lake, a former gubernatorial candidate and news anchor, secured the Republican nomination.

The race is currently firmly in the Lean Democratic category for several reasons. For one, Gallego is a Hispanic running in a majority-nonwhite state, and one that has been trending noticeably Democratic. Gallego is also a veteran, which plays well in a state that elected former POW John McCain (R) to the Senate for decades, whom Gallego praised last night at the DNC. While the state has been relatively consistently Republican since Barry Goldwater’s run for President in 1964, that has changed over the last six years as Democrats are ascendant. With the Governor's mansion, state AG and SOS, and both Senate seats. It helps that the Arizona Republican party has moved further and further right and become more and more Trumpy. Lake is not appealing to the State's ancestral Republican partisanship. For one, Lake is too on the far-right of the political spectrum. When she ran for Governor in 2022, she refused to acknowledge her loss. Due to this election denial and that of the 2020 Presidential election, she has faced various legal action. Democrats have no shortage of ammunition to use against her (politically speaking), and Gallego is most certainly favored. 

Lastly, Nevada has a surprisingly low-profile Senate contest going on. Incumbent Senator Jackie Rosen (D) was first elected in 2018, defeating one-term Senator Dean Heller (R) by a surprisingly large five-point margin. This year, she faces veteran and perennial candidate Sam Brown (R), who has previously ran for office in Texas and Nevada. Brown has a notable reputation as a veterans advocate, in part due to the significant burns he incurred during his service in Afghanistan. Polling has been relatively sparse, but has shown Rosen up by a reasonable margin. We rate this race at Lean Democratic, though closer to likely than tossup. Brown may be able to put the seat into a more competitive category, especially if polls begin to favor Trump in the state, but that would be somewhat surprising.