2024 has refuted the oft-used online expression "nothing ever happens." Debates? They never matter. A president, or in this case former president, getting shot at? Not since the eighties. A president voluntarily dropping out of his reelection bid? Not since LBJ (though he had already served for more than four years). For 2024, the expression would be closer to "everything always happens."

We'll focus on the Democratic side of the race in the first of this two-part series. The mere fact Kamala Harris is the nominee is an anomaly in and of itself. As a prelude to 2024 let's take a look back at the story of the Democratic party since 2008. Hillary Clinton seemed like, perhaps, the odds-on favorite to become president. She came into the primary with all the name ID, resources, and connections one could hope for. And on top of that, whoever became the Democratic nominee would have the luxury of tying the Republican nominee to George Bush, who was saddled with two unpopular wars in the Middle East and a housing crisis to boot. It wasn't to be, though. She ended up going against a once-in-a-generation political talent, Barack Obama, who quickly became a world-wide sensation, and who, of course went on to choose an easily vanquished foe for the nomination, Joe Biden, as his VP nominee.

Much was the same in 2016, except for the unenviable task of succeeding president of the same party. She did win the nomination this time, but not easily. This time, it wasn't a once-in-a-generation talent or a political upstart, but it was a grueling battle all the same. Still, virtually everyone predicted she would win against Donald Trump, including her opponent. After 2016, many were wondering if there would ever be a female president in the United States or if it would need to be a Republican who breaks the glass ceiling.

So, what is different now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee? Well, a lot, but we don't know if the result will be. Some have called Joe Biden the most legislatively successful president in a generation, and, as his Vice President, Kamala Harris can credibly run on his accomplishments. Just as Joe Biden successfully ran on President Obama's accomplishments. Accomplishments like the American Rescue Plan, which vaccinated hundreds of millions of Americans and reduced childhood poverty by 50%. Or the Inflation Reduction Act, which allowed Medicare to negotiate drug costs and cut insulin to $35/month and made the biggest investment, both domestically and abroad, to combat climate change in history. Or bipartisan laws, many thought impossible, like the aptly named Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the PACT Act, the first gun safety law in 30 years, etc.

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At the same time, she is very much not Joe Biden, so she has the luxury of differentiating herself from him. For instance, since the day Biden dropped out, Harris has increased her approval rating by ten points, having just entered positive territory, and presently has an approval rating ~15 points higher than Biden's. It's as if the electorate thinks Kamala advised Joe to not do inflation, and Joe ignored her. Or, less facetiously, that the electorate got what they said they wanted – a candidate born closer to this century than the 19th. And have decided to, more or less, not blame her for the things they blame Biden for. In fact, almost instantaneously upon Biden dropping out of the race and endorsing his vice president, Harris jumped to a three-point lead over Trump. An increase of roughly five points, which is where it has been, more or less, since.

Another luxury Harris has over Clinton is not having to endure thirty years of attacks, often misogynistic or completely meritless. As far as we know, Harris has not been accused of running a wide-ranging criminal enterprise or being behind several murders. These attacks, promulgated by far-right conspiracy theories and, all too often, regurgitated by mainstream media outlets trying not to look partisan towards Democrats or create the appearance of balance. That isn't to say Harris hasn't been the recipient of misogynistic attacks or, as she is the first Black woman to be vice president, racist attacks. But they haven't had thirty years to fester.

Perhaps the biggest advantage she has over any nominee is not having to suffer a bruising primary. Biden faced no serious challenger, and that may be the last gift Biden bestowed on her. She sewed up the Democratic nomination within a day or two after Biden dropped out and faced real challenger for it. The old political adage that you tack to the poles to win your primary and to the center to win the general doesn't apply to Kamala Harris. She wasn't beaten up, metaphorically, by her primary opponents. Something every eventual nominee has to go through. Nor did she have to stake out unpopular positions necessary to sate the appetite of Democratic primary voters.

In her 2020 quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, she was plagued by fighting the last war, so to speak. Having assumed the turf the candidates would be fighting over would be well to the left, she staked out positions like Medicare for All. In the end, primary voters prioritized electability above all else. With Bernie Sanders winning two of the first three contests (basically three), voters in South Carolina delivered a resounding victory for Joe Biden. Who within days had wrapped up the nomination. Ultimately, Joe Biden, the vice president to the first Black president, won African American voters in South Carolina and throughout the country. Like Obama, Biden picked an easily defeated primary opponent as his running mate.

Her 2020 campaign was mired by low fundraising, low polls, and internal squabbling. Will 2024 be any different? Let's start with the final point first. Harris is stepping into a fully operational presidential campaign filled with alums of past winning campaigns. I'm sure stepping into a campaign built for someone else has its fair share of growing pains, but having people who have run and won these types of races before is an invaluable resource. Harris has gone from someone with a chronically underfunded campaign last time around to a campaign with more money than they know what to do with.

Since becoming the presumptive nominee, it has been said that Harris is running a "perfect campaign" which, maybe, overstates it a bit. But she has certainly been running a very effective campaign that is fundraising at beyond record numbers. The campaign has been and has enjoyed fairly positive news coverage, despite the increased drumbeat of discussion about the Harris campaign "hiding" from the press. Harris, also, has proved to be an incredibly able campaigner with her rallies routinely getting 10K+ supporters in attendance, which may have surprised some. She, along with her VP pick Tim Walz, has a clear path to 270 electoral votes right now, and has the wind at her back. Voters have never loved Donald Trump, and he has more baggage than ever before. 

She's up in the polls. She has all the money in the world. She has an electorate newly favorable towards her. So, everything seems to be sunshine and rainbows for her, no? Before believing it whole cloth you should cue up the speech from Rocky Balboa. There is still an electoral college bias towards Republicans, though perhaps narrower in 2024. She is a clear, if narrow, favorite right now, but even the best polls can't be expected to be exactly right. And Harris is a normal polling miss away from falling behind nationally and in many of the swing states. Losing a primary campaign and losing a general are two very different things. She dropped out last time and still ended up becoming the Vice President of the United States. If she loses this time, she'll get the shame and scorn that comes from allowing Donald Trump back into the White House. Just ask Hillary Clinton how that feels. But if she wins, she'll have beaten Donald Trump, perhaps for good. And as a reward she gets to be president. It's always a gamble but for now, at least, she's got the odds slightly in her favor.

We will be running part two of this series on the Trump campaign in the coming weeks so please stay tuned for it, and all Pivot Point's articles, in the lead up to the election.