For the first time in nearly 20 years, a Senate race in Maryland appears to be contentious in both the primary and general elections. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone are facing off in an increasingly heated primary on the Democratic side, while former Governor Larry Hogan’s entrance in the Republican primary has thrown a wrench into what would otherwise be a sleepy general election. Early polling match-ups had shown Hogan leading both Democrats, though more recent independent polls have given both Alsobrooks and Trone healthy leads. But before going into what the general election might look like, let's take a look at the primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

To start with the Democratic side, David Trone is a co-founder of the alcohol retailer Total Wine and More, which is headquartered in North Bethesda, Maryland. His first run for office was in 2016, when he unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary for the open 8th congressional district. Trone then ran for the open 6th district in 2018, defeating now-Lieutenant Governor Aruna Miller in the primary. In his senate campaign, Trone has touted his background as a successful businessman and his ability to win in a somewhat-competitive district. His vast personal wealth has allowed him to have the airwaves virtually to himself from last summer until February this year. Along with consolidating most elected Democrats in his western Maryland-based congressional district, he has the support of several Democrats in the U.S. House, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark.

Angela Alsobrooks has been the County Executive of suburban Washington D.C.’s Prince George’s County since she was elected in 2018. Prior to that, she served as the Prince George’s County State’s Attorney from 2010 to 2018. Her electoral record, while somewhat limited, is nothing to scoff at; in both her initial primary elections for State’s Attorney and County Executive, she handily defeated more experienced candidates, including former Rep. Donna Edwards in the latter. As a candidate for Senate, she has been emphasizing her background as a first-generation college student who went on to become an attorney, a single mother, and her work to reduce crime during her tenure in office. She has the support of most elected Democrats in the state, including Governor Wes Moore, Lieutenant Governor Aruna Miller, Senator Chris Van Hollen, and five of the seven Democrats in Maryland’s house delegation. 

Trone has been leading the primary for most of the race, though there has been a significant amount of undecided voters, and Alsobrooks has been making up ground as she has gotten her message out. Alsobrooks’ campaign argues that Trone consistently polling in the low to mid-40s shows that his wealth can only boost him so far, and that Alsobrooks has more room to grow. It is worth mentioning that in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, now-Governor Wes Moore was not polling anywhere near the top of the pack until the final weeks before the primary, giving Alsobrooks supporters some comfort that late-deciders could break for the County Executive. While Trone remains the favorite due to his wealth of resources, Alsobrooks’ institutional support should not be discounted. 

The Republican primary should have little drama, with Larry Hogan being a strong favorite. That being said, his primary performance will likely appear weak for a candidate who has so much support among the party’s elites. Being critical of Donald Trump made many well qualified candidates persona non-grata in Republican primaries nationally since 2016, and Hogan’s reputation will certainly turn off some Republican voters enough not to vote for him. Had Hogan not announced and filed to run for senate on the last possible day, he likely would have drawn a more credible pro-Trump primary opponent, causing headaches for national Republicans. Former State Delegate and perennial candidate Robin Ficker is running in the primary and may become the main protest candidate in the primary, though it would truly be a surprise if Hogan actually lost the nomination to him. 

Despite early general election polling showing Hogan leading both potential Democratic opponents, both parties have been behaving like Democrats are favored to hold the seat. Senate races in recent cycles in which a popular candidate of the minority party in the state has run would lend credence to this theory. The table below gives examples of such instances within the last six cycles of senate elections: