As Americans, we tend to watch for swing states, those that will end up deciding control of the Presidency or Congress. Those more informed among us may look on a more detailed level within states and examine specific counties. These counties are typically referred to as bellwethers, ones that gauge how the state or nation is going to vote. Nationally, after the 2016 and 2020 elections, the vast majority of bellwethers accurate since 1980 or earlier were wiped out, leaving Clallam County, Washington as the last bellwether standing. 

However, the country has entered an objectively different political era since then. For one, partisan polarization has taken hold, leaving the vast majority of counties totally uncompetitive one way or the other. The urban+suburban/rural realignment has also taken hold. Though, while there were notable differences back then this is a totally new playing field. Furthermore, 1992, 1996, and 2000 saw notable third party candidates on the ballot that likely swung some states and caused complex splits in the right leaning/left leaning vote (which likely can’t be said for 2016). As such, more bellwethers that are disqualified under the 1980 standard come into play. In this follow up article, we’ll examine these bellwethers to determine their accuracy up to and including misses in 2000 and offer our insights as to how accurate they may be moving forward.

The Bellwethers

Clallam County WA

The longest-standing bellwether in the country is Clallam County, Washington. Clallam is situated on the Olympic Peninsula and contains the westernmost point of the lower 48 states. The vast majority of the county’s land area is taken up by Olympic National Forest and other protected forests, and tourism to these areas is a significant draw. Outside Washington, the county is perhaps best known for being the setting of the Twilight Saga which takes place in the rural city of Forks in the southwestern portion of the county.

Politically speaking, Clallam County is very complex. The majority of the county’s rural turf is overwhelmingly Republican, such being the case for Forks. However, there is a notable Native American population, particularly concentrated in the west. Neah Bay is one of (if not the) bluest precincts in the county, and has a Native American majority. Traditional political dynamics also come into play with the two largest cities: Port Angeles, the county seat, and Sequim. Democrats rack up large margins around Port Angeles, which neighbors uber-progressive Jefferson County to its east, and post decent margins in Sequim proper. However, outside of Sequim, Republicans post their largest margins in suburban and exurban turf. 

The county, as of 2022, had three commissioners of different parties: one Democrat, one Republican, and one Independent. This serves to highlight the independent streak that the county has held for a long time. Clallam maintaining its bellwether status will come down to a handful of factors, as will be the case with many others. If rural areas, like Forks, continue to depopulate, Republicans will have to search for votes elsewhere. Republicans have also lost significant ground in the suburbs in the last two Presidential elections, which also paints a bleak picture for their electoral fortunes, which may become evident around Sequim if it continues. Despite these benefits, Democrats have seen their margins slip in the inner cities for the last two Presidential elections, which may not be a large factor here, but could result in the margin decreasing in Port Angeles.

Overall, this would suggest that Clallam is becoming a more Democratic-leaning County, trend-wise. In 2022, the county voted exclusively for Democrats for federal office, albeit being to the right of the rest of the state. In 2024, Republicans carried Clallam in some races in the state’s jungle primary, but it would appear that the net Democratic vote in Clallam was greater than that of Republicans in all races. This may be a facet of the electoral environment that we find ourselves in. Clallam may be trending Democratic, or a bit of both. Kamala Harris has caused Democratic polling to dramatically improve since becoming the party’s standard bearer, and Clallam may just be reflecting the state of the nation.

For now, due to the confounding nature of these factors, Clallam is likely to maintain its bellwether status. If state polling is to be believed, Kamala Harris appears likely to narrowly win the electoral vote, which means that Clallam should be leaning Democratic this fall. Still, in a more neutral election environment, or even a more Republican-leaning year, it will be interesting how Clallam behaves, and how long it will hold onto its most-accurate title for.

Blaine County MT

Blaine County sits along the Canadian border, and is tied with Clay County MN for the second longest-running bellwether county. The political competition in the county is primarily divided along racial lines: white voters typically vote for Republicans, and Native American voters typically vote for Democrats. The winner of the race comes down to which group turns out in greater force, given that each group comprises roughly half of the county’s population. Fort Belknap Agency on the Fort Belknap Reservation is home to two Native American tribes: the Gros Ventre and Assiniboine. 

The current race for Montana’s Class 1 Senate seat. Democrats have managed to hold the seat through Senator John Tester for 18 years, and even with a highly polarized environment, Tester is likely to perform well in Blaine, boosting turnout on the reservation and flipping the votes of some whites, particularly in Chinook. The question remains how much of this boost will translate to the Presidential race.

We believe that, in the context of current polling, both in the Presidential and Senate races, that Blaine County is likely to vote Democratic for President, and thereby keep its streak as a bellwether if Harris wins. In 2018, John Tester carried the county with 65% of the vote. Even assuming that Tester will lose significant ground and currently is not favored to win re-election, Blaine will almost certainly remain firmly in his column, with some of that boost translating to the Presidential race. Kamala Harris has improved drastically over President Biden’s national polling, and it would stand to reason that she would hold the county, assuming such shifts hold in Montana.

Clay County MN

Clay County sits along Minnesota’s border with Fargo,North Dakota, and is home to Moorhead, home of former Congressman Colin Peterson (D). Also holding the title of second-most-accurate bellwether, Clay’s Democratic coalition has shifted from one being divided amongst Moorhead and rural areas, to one driven near-entirely by Moorhead, with a few smaller towns still voting blue. While the county voted for Trump in 2016, it very soon went back to its Democratic-leaning ways, backing most of the 2018 statewide candidates, and then President Biden in 2020.

Tim Walz, the Vice Presidential nominee for Democrats, is the current Governor and a former decade-long Congressman of Minnesota. Even in the event that Trump were to win nationally, he would be unlikely to carry Minnesota. Given that the national environment has shifted to Harris with the addition of Walz on the ticket, Clay is in all likelihood going to vote Democratic this November. With the Democratic ticket in the lead polling-wise, if the election were held today it's likely that Clay County will retain its bellwether status.

Kent County DE

There is a five-way tie for third place, with four of the contenders being in northern border states. The one contender in the South is Kent County, Delaware. This county is home to the state’s capital of Dover, and sits one county north of President Biden’s home county of Sussex. 

While Democrats need to do well in Blaine and Clay counties, this is not the case with Kent (which is a comparable case to Clallam.) Democrats regularly win while losing Kent and Sussex, carrying exclusively New Castle to Kent’s north, which is home to the state’s largest city of Wilmington. Presidentially though, this has become a pretty accurate bellwether in a two-way race. 

In 2020, Joe Biden being Delaware’s favorite son likely provided some sort of boost. This is made interesting by the fact that Kent only voted for him by around 4 points. On paper, this would suggest that Harris has decent odds of losing the county. To further this, no statewide Democrat carried Kent in 2022, albeit being a decent year for Republicans.

Our overall conclusion is that Kent is slightly favored to keep its bellwether status. It’s hard to determine what a “neutral year” would look like, given that the last few election cycles have either favored Republicans or had Joe Biden running. That being said, Delaware is a relatively educated, affluent state. With Kamala Harris on the top of the ticket it provides an interesting case study. She got an immediate boost in the polls, but doesn't have 50 years of electoral history in the state. Will it translate to improvements in Dover and its surrounding communities, or will Biden dropping out cause a reversion. Honestly, the two may cancel each other out.

Door County WI

Door County WI has asserted its status as a bellwether beyond just Presidential races. This small, touristy county along Lake Michigan voted for each statewide winning candidate (five total, 3D and 2R) in 2022, despite it being an otherwise decent year for Democrats. Wisconsin is a notoriously narrowly decided state in the best of cases (assuming one’s name is not Barack Obama.) With the strong incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) on the ballot this year she will likely hold the county comfortably.  Kamala Harris is a different question 

Door has a notable division between the mainland and the island/port portions of the county. Republicans do better the closer one goes to the rest of the state, whereas Democrats perform better the farther out you go. There aren’t any significant racial divisions in the county, so the contest is typically one of mainland vs coastal/island.

We wholeheartedly believe that Door County will maintain its bellwether status. True, Democrats are building increased strength in tourism-centric communities, but this is not the case for the whole county. At the moment, Harris has the momentum, but if this changes and Trump gains momentum comparable to that he had versus Biden, then Door will likely swing back to his column.