Republican candidates across the state withdrew from their races to give other conservatives an edge with ranked-choice voting. Though RCV is often sold as a way to circumnavigate splitting the vote, Republicans’ loss to Democrat Mary Peltola in 2022 has convinced them otherwise.

In the days following Alaska’s August 20th primary, Republicans began announcing their withdrawal from contested races across the state. In Democratic Congresswoman Peltola’s race, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) withdrew after coming in third behind Nick Begich (R). Hours before the deadline, fourth place Republican Matthew Silisbury dropped as well.

In the House, Cole Snodgrass (R) left the open race for the Interior’s HD36 after coming in fifth. Additionally, two of the three Republicans running in the Anchorage Southside signed a public agreement to withdraw if they don’t get the most votes. 

In the Senate, Sand Lake Rep. Tom McKay (R) left the race for Senator Matt Claman’s (D) seat after coming in third. On the Upper Kenai Peninsula, conservative Alaska Independence candidate Andy Cizek’s withdraw left Republicans Sen. Bjorkman and House Rep. Ben Carpenter in the race. It also left “Democrat” Tina Wegener, a staunch conservative who got in to try and spoil Bjorkman’s chances. Finally, Republicans Sharon Jackson and former Rep. Ken McCarty withdrew from the race for coalition member Kelly Merrick’s (R) seat. This leaves Republican Jared Geocker and another fake Democrat, Lee Hammermeister. 

ALASKA’S TOP 4 PRIMARY AND RCV

As a refresher, Alaska has a new top-four open primary system. In each race, the four candidates with the most votes move on to the general where voters can rank them in order of preference. In theory, this eliminates the problem of multiple Republicans (or Democrats, Independents, etc) splitting the vote. 

But if that was the case, why did so many Republicans pull out of their races?

To understand, we have to rewind back to 2022 when Republicans lost the late Rep. Don Young’s open seat to Democrat Mary Peltola. Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich weren’t the best candidates, but they were always doomed to lose to Peltola — all because of a unique phenomena of RCV: ballot exhaustion. 

BALLOT EXHAUSTION 

RCV gives voters the opportunity to rank multiple candidates. However, that doesn’t mean voters choose to use the rankings. In every election, there’s a percentage of voters who only rank one candidate. This is referred to as “ballot exhaustion”.

Ballot exhaustion is simply the rate at which voters choose not to rank their ballots beyond their 1st choice vote.

Voters who “exhaust” their ballots have a huge impact on races with multiple candidates. In the August special of 2022, Peltola was first elected in part because nearly a third of Begich’s voters didn’t rank Palin second, leaving Palin short of winning by five thousand votes.

Below is a round-by-round breakdown of the House race in June of 2022. Peltola starts off with just 40% of the vote, while Republicans Palin and Begich are a combined 60% of the vote. 

Two things happened during RCV: First, because Palin was unpopular with many of Begich’s voters, one third of Begich’s voters ranked Peltola second. Second, one in five of Begich’s voters opted not to rank Palin or Peltola. As a result, Palin lost in the second round of RCV.

To be clear, Peltola would likely have won even if Begich or Palin had faced her one-on-one. But due to the effect of voters abstaining from ranking, it was nearly mathematically impossible for either of them to win. 

EXHAUSTION STAYED HIGH IN NOVEMBER 2022

In the November general election where RCV applied to all races, there were several local legislative races where no candidate reached 50% of the vote. Just like in August, voters exhausted their ballots at high levels.

In Fairbanks’ House District 31, Democrat Maxine Dibert unseated Republican Bart LeBon in a race with two Republicans. Dibert placed first receiving 49% of the vote, while LeBon and third-place Republican Kelly Nash earned a combined 50%. A whopping 36% of Nash’s voters opted not to rank their ballots, leaving LeBon 500 votes short of keeping his seat. 

In the Anchorage Hillside’s House District 11, Republicans Julie Coulombe and Ross Beiling earned a combined total of 54%. The seat also voted for Republicans in every other race on the ballot. But due to Beiling’s high “exhaustion” rate of 36%, Coulombe came within just 110 votes of losing to centrist Independent Walter Featherly.

Note: Voters exhaust their ballots regardless of party affiliation, but conservative voters exhaust at much higher rates than progressives.

In 2022, voters who chose Democrats and progressive-aligned Independents as their first choice exhausted their ballots at an average of 24%. For Republicans, it was 36%. That’s no surprise: until late into campaign season, Republicans spread disinformation about RCV, likely discouraging their voters from ranking in races with multiple Republicans.

Republicans’ refusal to embrace RCV led to their losses in a few races, and some close calls in others. 

THE 2024 AUGUST PRIMARY

Rather than adapting to the new system, Republicans strategized statewide to unify behind the prevailing conservative primary candidate to avoid the ballot exhaustion effect. 

Let's look at the primary for Peltola’s seat where Republicans Dahlstrom and Salisbury dropped out. If this race took place in the November general, there would be no RCV tabulation since Peltola reached over 50% of the vote. 

Instead, let’s run an RCV simulation where Peltola receives just 45%. Here, we’ll assume that at least 20% of Republican ballots are exhausted. We’ll also assume that just 10% of Republican voters rank Peltola second. (These rates will likely be higher, but we’re keeping them low to show the uphill climb it requires for Republicans to win) 

In the first round of our simulation, Republicans start off with a combined 55%, beating Peltola by nine percentage points — close to the margin Trump won Alaska by in 2020.

However, due to ballot exhaustion, Begich would only win the final round by 1 point.

Groh ended up with 35% of the vote to Franks’ 21%, while Nelson received 44%. Despite a strong RCV education campaign, nearly a quarter of Franks’ voters abstained from ranking Groh or Nelson as their second choice. Groh prevailed against Nelson by less than 100 votes in the final round.