When President Obama visited Myanmar in 2012 just two years after their first elections there was optimism for a lasting change in the country. Eleven years later, dozens of different organizations have been engaged in a civil war since soon after the Military Junta seized power from the democratically elected government in a coup in February of 2021 and their severe crackdown of anti-coup protests thereafter. It may be half the world away, but its geopolitical importance far outpaces the attention the war has gotten in the west. Myanmar borders the two biggest countries in the world, India and China, and a civil war between democratic and autocratic forces would seem to be a perfect fit for President Biden’s goals of refocusing towards the Indo-Pacific region and framing the future in terms of democracy vs autocracy. The war in Ukraine is of incredible import, but has also overshadowed many foreign policy goals. Additionally, the current Isreal-Hamas war is taking up much of the Secretary of State’s attention right when the Anti-Junta forces are potentially turning the tides of the civil war. Resistance forces control nearly 50% of territory, though are yet to control 10% of the population. With Operation 1027 the Resistance is aiming to change that. With this in mind Pivot Point’s Alex Pastor conducted a written Q&A with a close observer of the war, Nicholas6284, between November 29th and December 1st. Below is the Q&A edited only for grammatical clarity and to add relevant links, all opinions are his.

Alex Pastor - Among the several countries Myanmar borders are the two biggest countries in the world. There is starting to be more coverage in America, but why do you think it has been so off the radar?

Nicholas - If you are talking about Western attention on Myanmar, it has been largely forgotten in Washington. It appears the Biden admin doesn't think Myanmar is as important geopolitically over others like Ukraine. Since the 2021 coup, Biden only made speeches about Myanmar once or twice. The Senate passed BURMA ACT in 2022 but there was no follow up since then. So, I would say that the Myanmar issue is largely from lack of political will in Washington. Over here in Asia, China has been closely paying attention to Myanmar as well as India. I had been advocating for years to the West that Myanmar could be a low hanging fruit for the Western democracies to do very little to reap huge returns; i.e: to show the world that democratic nations support each other. But in reality, democratic nations failed collectively in this regard. There would be huge ramifications in SEAsia for decades to come. Myanmar, as an ally of the US, could have been a strategic advantage for the US over China since we cover China's backdoor, but somehow, no politicians in Washington have enough will to push Myanmar affairs.

AP - How has the war evolved since its inception?

N - This revolution can be categorized into 3 phases; peaceful protests, initial armed resistance, and current phase of maturity and offensive. Right after the coup of Feb 21, millions of people protested against the coup. We were repelled with bullets instead. After a few months of protests, and hundreds of people dead on the streets, many of us decided that armed revolution is the only way. Initially, the revolution was uneven. We have to remember, this revolution is 100% organic. It is our desire to remove this sit-tat (Junta Military). Some were able to access modern weapons from black markets, some were able to receive weapons from existing Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), but a huge majority of the resistance forces lacked even basic training. In the initial phase of revolution, there were hundreds of self-proclaimed People's Defense Forces (PDFs). But over the course of many months, much of the groups have either consolidated into bigger ones (KNDF for example) or lacked enough support and disappeared or were annihilated by junta forces. This phase of the revolution was one of the most difficult since there were reports of arrests and raids by the Junta and we can hear them on news almost everyday. We probably lost thousands to junta raids and assaults over this phase. As natural evolution goes, those that survived evolved into mature PDF units. NUG (National Unity Government) has come a long way to establish a Chain of Command (COC) with experienced EAO commanders. This helped a lot.

AP - Wikipedia lists 24 different groups or subgroups involved with the resistance.  What is the best way to understand the participants in this war?

N - I am not sure about Wikipedia but as for armed groups in Myanmar, you can basically divide them into 3 groups.

a) Pro-democratic forces and those leaning towards revolution; NUG's PDFs, KNU, KIA, KNDF and AA, MNDAA, TNLA being the latter.

b) Neutral such as UWSA, NDAA, SSPP, RCSS, DKBA, etc. UWSA is largely known to support resistance camps unofficially with others such as RCSS & DKBA slightly leaning junta where they attended junta organized events.

c) Junta leaning; Border Force Guards, Local militia, Pyusawhtee etc..

AP - Can you explain what Operation 1027 is and what it will entail?

N - Op1027 is named after October 27, which is the day the operation began. It's supposedly led by Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA+TNLA+MNDAA) but they have very close relationships with PDFs, KIA etc. Note that 3BA members are also members of FPNCC which is led by UWSA. It is widely suspected that UWSA is supplying to the 3BA, since only UWSA and KIA have weapon factories other than Junta in Myanmar. Initially the objective of Op1027 was about local political autonomy for ethnic minorities in northern Shan, to root out scam centers operated and protected by Junta, as well as to work with democratic forces.

AP - What is the dynamic on the ground now, and while realizing there are ups and downs in wars, is it trending in favor of either side?

N - Initial first few days of blitzkrieg launched by 3BA has lost some momentum in Shan. Instead we are seeing more mopping up operations in Shan north by 3BA. Both sides seem to be prepping for the next wave with 3BA targeting Muse, Lashio and Laukkai. AA launched operations in Rakhine but local sit-tat forces seem very much prepared. Lacking a surprise factor, right after fighting began, the sit-tat forces quickly abandoned small indefensible outposts and consolidated their strengths. So far the focus of fighting has largely concentrated around the port town of Pautaw in Rakhine. This leaves Chin and Sagaing as easy targets. Junta pulled troops from Sagaing to reinforce Shan to halt 3BA assaults. Since the second week of Operation 1027, multiple towns in Sagaing and Chin have fallen to the Resistance. In Karenni state, Resistance forces have launched an intense assault on the state capital of Loikaw. In the southeastern direction, Karen resistance force tried to take Kawkareik but withdrew. However, KNLA/PDF forces were able to capture Chaung Hna Khwa bridge near Kyitemaraw. The weak response in the Karen state can be directly attributed to disunity amongst the Karen political leadership, including allegations of some in KNU leadership are collaborating with scam centers

AP - Who are the primary backers of the resistance and of the Military Junta? 

N - The whole revolution is sustained by the people of Myanmar ourselves. So far we had received little or no material support from the West. While the West talks fancy on paper and media about promotion of democracy, they are just hollow. China on the other hand, talks little but there seems to be a lot of actions on ground. Op1027 of this scale and size, I believed China knew in advance. Afterall, the entire first phase of the Op was to target border cities with China. But that doesn't mean China was the primary backer. What we can say is that Myanmar people both domestic and from around the world contributed.

On the other hand, the Junta received a lot of help from countries like Russia, India, Thailand and China. For Russia, they have little or nothing to lose. If the Junta won, they would have a proxy state in SEAsia. If they lose, they just need to leave. That's about it.

India, as the largest democracy in the world, was betting on the Junta. For Indian politicians, they have largely looked at Myanmar through the lens of China. For them, every foreign policy on Myanmar is about containing Chinese influence. In short, they are quite blindsided. They failed to see Myanmar as a sovereign state and the people just want to become masters of their own state. But instead, India threw its weight behind the Junta, expecting that Myanmar won't be pro-China under the Junta. India provided arms and weapons, provided training to Junta officials, sent multiple delegations and even celebrated with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.

For Thailand, it is simple; they don't want to see the Junta fall. As we know, Thailand has a military proxy government, not a democratic government. They are like Junta in many senses. Previous Thai PM, Prayut, came to power via a coup and Thai junta members have business relationships with generals in Myanmar. I am sure they don't want the generals to expose their dirty business in Myanmar. If you follow Tun Min Latt case, who was arrested in Bangkok for money laundering, the case had many shady facts, such as the Thai authorities actually tried to suppress the news of property documents belonging to Junta boss MAL children, seized by Thai police. It was a media leak a few months later when we actually learned that. Follow the case trail and you will learn something.

Other than those, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is another somewhat backer of junta. For the past 2 years, ASEAN did little to nothing to actually help the people but rather exclusively dealt with junta, citing "protocol". Their biggest weakness is that ASEAN operates by consensus; whereby just a single state can veto any ASEAN response in Myanmar, something which Thailand, as a friend of the Junta, was blocking on every move.

AP - Diplomatically speaking, are the winds beginning to shift towards the resistance?

N - Foreign nations, especially from the West, did not have any diplomatic relations with EAOs, unlike China. China engaged with EAOs in the past and present. For the West, the engagement went mostly through NUG. As far as I know, the West has not yet engaged with any of the EAOs in Myanmar for the past 2 years, other than a few photo ops and lip service, the West have largely ignored the resistance camp. We were largely kept on the sidelines. The Op1027 changed that. There is now the perception that NUG could be a force to be reckoned with. Ironically, we tried so hard to follow the rules, project ourselves to align with the Western values, but as much as you can do, nobody gives attention to you unless you have muscles to show off. Afterall, might is still right. You can be a genocidal supervillain at all you want, but as long as you have a big stick to back you up, there are still people who will invite you to fancy dinners. Or you can be a good guy all you want, and without big sticks behind your back, no one will invite you. That's the modern world we live in.

AP - Is there anything I haven't asked that you would like to bring to our readers' attention?

N - What's happening in Myanmar will not stay in Myanmar. It will have ramifications around the world. Sure, Myanmar is a small unimportant nation stacked between China and India. But that's not about Myanmar. This fight is about autocracy vs democracy; if the dictatorship was to win, this would signal other nations around the world that it is indeed possible to do whatever you want as long as you kill enough people. The West will make a few statements here and there but if you have some powerful ally like Russia or China or any other dictatorial states behind your back, you can always get away with it.

What we did was to prove to the world that the desire of the people to live free will take any dictators to its knees no matter how strong they are.

The West had plenty of opportunity in the past 2 years to prove that the Western hegemony will influence in this part of the region. But the lack of any support means the power now will be filled with someone else. And that someone else will be China. Should the West invest enough in Myanmar, Myanmar would have offered significant strategic value to contain Chinese influence in this region. But empty words proved that China is indeed the influential player in SEAsia. 

In the future, how would Uncle Sam protect its influence in this region? Countries have learnt that you can't always rely on the West to protect their democratic way of life. Countries will now hedge their bets with China. This is a huge missed opportunity for the US.