Pivot Point Analysis - Counties to Watch: Revisited

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Revisiting PV Matching Counties

Chris Kirkwood

Pivot Point is back after our post-election hiatus!

For many people, it came as a shock that Donald Trump won a second, non-consecutive term in November. And, while we thought Trump had a very real chance to win, we were definitely surprised by him winning his first popular vote by a point and a half. I guess the third time's a charm.

We didn’t place a lot of stock in the Selzer poll that showed Harris leading by three points in Iowa, but we thought Harris was on track to win the Presidency, albeit narrowly. Our final projection had Harris winning 276 electoral votes to Trump’s 262. We accurately predicted that Harris was indeed going to lose the Sun Belt states that Biden carried in 2020 (and North Carolina), but we missed the former Blue Wall states and Nevada (the latter of which even Hillary Clinton carried in her 2016 loss). Notably, our model did hint at the Electoral College's Republican bias would disappear for this election, albeit with Republicans still narrowly pulling a win.

We don’t have much ground to celebrate predictions, but one area that we do was in our 1st edition of counties to watch. This issue covered counties that matched the US’s popular vote since 2000. Six of these counties retained their popular vote matching status, which is fewer than we expected, and most certainly in the wrong direction. Still, examining why these flips happened is important to understanding the story of the 2024 Presidential election, so we’re going to take another look at this group.

The Losers

Before getting into it in depth, there were 2 counties that we counted out almost immediately: Cumberland NC and Suffolk VA. Both of these counties have been voting for Democrats by large margins since Bush’s 2004 win, and it was difficult to see a path for Trump or another Republican flipping either. Both have large African American populations, and are relatively urban compared to the others on this list. So, it makes sense that, with Trump winning the national popular vote, that he still lost them.

There were 4 other counties that failed to match the national popular vote from our list: Caddo LA, Boone MO, and St. Joseph IN. We were fairly confident that these counties would lose their PV-accurate streak, but much less so than the previous duo.

As for Caddo, the parish is giving Harris around a 5 point margin, so a slight drop from Biden’s 2020 numbers (which are shown below). If the national trends are anything to go by, Trump likely gained in most parts of the county: the rural turf, Black-dominated inner city, and a bit in the suburbs. If Harris made any gains, it would be in the whiter, higher-educated areas of the county in closer proximity to majority non white turf. Still, on the same ballot, Cleo Fields (D) has avoided a runoff to return to Congress because of the Black voters of Shreveport. Caddo County is likely here to stay in the Democratic column, but that doesn’t mean that Democrats can shirk rebuilding bridges with minority voters.

Boone County was the one of the trio that we were most confident in breaking its streak. Being home to the city of Columbia and the University of Missouri, trends did not look good for the Trump campaign (whiter, more highly educated). Harris, indeed, still won the county by about 10 points, which is again a drop from Biden’s numbers. But still a respectable performance.Trump may have been able to pick off a precinct or two along the edge of town and drop margins a bit in the city center, but Columbia has become too blue for Republicans to overcome.

St. Joseph County was the closest of the trio to maintaining its streak. Harris only won it by a point and a half, dropping 3.5 from Biden’s margin. The city of South Bend is more African American-populous than Columbia in Boone County, which helps explain the comparatively more dramatic shift, given that Democrats fell off a metaphorical cliff with minority voters. Still, post-Mayor Pete, South Bend and its surrounding suburbs have become more Democrat-friendly. Granted, Republicans still carried St. Joseph in statewide and federal races (ex. Governor and US Senate), but its Presidential lean is hard to deny at this point.

The Retainers

To begin with, the counties that retained their streak about to the extent that we’d have expected were Washington GA and Marengo AL. Both of these are more rural, African American-populous counties in the Black Belt regions of their respective states. Both went for Biden by around a point, and this time Washington went for Trump by 2 points, and Marengo for Trump by 4. Harris losing ground with both rural and African American voters was bound to be especially prevalent here. Interestingly enough, Marengo appears to have retained more downballot juice for Democrats than Washington, with Marengo having gone for Rep. Terri Sewell (D) congressionally, and Washington flipping to Rep. Rick Allen (R) (and interestingly, Allen also carried more reliably blue Taliaferro County to the north of Washington, which REALLY does not bode well for Democrats moving forwards).

Three of the four remaining counties are heavily Hispanic: Osceola in FL, and Cameron and Culberson in TX. Harris lost major ground with Hispanics, so in that regard, the trio retaining their streak makes perfect sense. Culberson, being the most rural of the three, especially makes sense. Democrats lost it in a handful of races in 2022, and on paper it’s the prime place to see Republican gains. Trump won this Biden+3 county by a whopping 17 points, and given the nation’s current sociopolitical trajectory, this would appear to be a Republican lock for the near future. Culberson remained blue in 2020 after Trump managed to flip neighboring Reeves County, but the pair are now reliably voting alike once again.

Cameron County was a surprise flip of the night, and even more surprising that while the county went to Trump, it also voted for incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzales for Congress, against former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores by a narrow margin. It had previously gone for Joe Biden by over 13 points, and the city of Brownsville in particular had been a deep blue. Now, the county has jetted 20 points to the right, favoring Trump by 6 points over Harris. Will Democrats be able to flip this comparatively more urban county back in the near future? It wholly depends on the work they put in with Hispanics/Latinos, especially Hispanic/Latino men, who shifted from a Biden-leaning demographic to one that went for Trump by double digits.

Osceola County FL deserves to be looked at in its own right. This was another county that Biden won by double digits, an even larger margin than he had carried Cameron in Texas. Florida, however, is its own unique beast. Democrats lost MAJOR ground in the former swing state, going from a 4-ish point loss to a 13 point loss, losing Osceola by a point and a half; a 15 point shift to the right from 2020. Texas’s PV matchers, however, are populated by mostly Mexican Hispanics, whereas Osceola is heavily Puerto Rican. Still, each group shifted dramatically to the right. Like Cameron, however, Osceola held on Congressionally, voting for Democrat Darren Soto by 10 points (which may be in part due to Republicans running a white candidate with an white-sounding surname). Again, its continued PV-matching streak is largely up in the air, and will depend on Democrats’ strategy, time, and effort to win back Hispanic voters, but given its comparative closeness and the uniform-swingy-ness of the election, we’re more confident that it’ll retain its streak in the near future.

The last of those that retained its streak was Rockland NY. The county, as we mentioned in our first article, has three competing demographics: Orthodox Jewish voters (heavily Republican (and upset by the situation in Israel)), suburban voters (Democratic-trending but currently more swingy), and minority communities of mixed African American and Hispanic nature. Well, all of those voters shifted rightwards this election, and the county went from a narrow Biden win in 2020 to a 12-point Trump win this year. Orthodox voters, who are growing quickly in numbers, and African Americans shifted even further into the Republican column, and Democrats fell off a cliff with Hispanic voters. It makes sense that Rockland, with these demographics, would shift hard to the right.

So, where do we stand now? We have six remaining PV-accurate bellwethers. Will these bellwethers retain their status in the future? We have no idea.

The 2024 election appears to be a story of a combination of uniform shift towards Trump, minimal Democratic gains in the suburbs, and Democrats tanking with minorities. The big question that we, and many others are wondering, is this: Was this a normal election that we can draw reliable conclusions from?

We are currently inclined to say no, but we will likely revisit this point in future articles. This election seemed to be a rebellion against the status quo of the Biden administration, be it due to inflation, the hyper-present war in Gaza, racial depolarization, etc. Good baseline elections so far this century were 2012 and 2020. The Trump effect in particular is *extremely* difficult, if not impossible, to quantify, and in 2020 only appears to have been functionally negated by the pandemic.

The Trump era may not be ending any time soon, even looking out to the 2028 elections, where Trump’s endorsement and style of politics may leave a further lasting impact on the nation. Our definition of normal in US politics is always in flux, but now pinning down some semblance of it has become more difficult than ever. We at Pivot Point remain dedicated to covering elections in this perhaps not-so-strange new world that we find ourselves in. Elections will keep on happening, and 2025 will have showdowns to watch before the 2026 midterm elections.

Whatever will happen in the future is anyone’s guess, and anyone’s game to make a reality. Make what you will of the future, and we’ll help you make heads or tails of politics and elections. Stay tuned for more from the gang at Pivot Point.

Interested in joining the team? Send us a DM on Twitter or Bluesky and we'd be happy to hear your pitch!

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