This fall, several state legislative chambers throughout the country are up for grabs. Battleground seats in these states will be hotly contested, but there will be action going on in a lot of legislative chambers in November. Even in safe states and/or chambers, both parties will be fighting intensely for seats to maximize their influence, and potentially protect veto-override powers. Here are five more Pivot Point is keeping a close eye on, specifically from the view of this week’s author.

California HD 47

To start our list, we have California’s HD 47. This seat on paper is a prime Democratic pickup, having gone to Joe Biden in 2020 by over six and a half points. The seat is situated in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, with the Riverside portion holding the bulk of the votes. Even in bad performances statewide for Democrats (relatively speaking,) they’ve reliably carried this seat since its inception.

The current incumbent is Republican Greg Wallis, who won in 2022 by under a 1-point margin. Wallis likely gained some votes due to the more Republican nature of the year with Democrats in California having a rougher showing than Democrats nationally. Unfortunately for him, that environment is likely not going to reappear. This aside, Democrats will also be throwing money in the Riverside County media markets to try to flip Republican Ken Calvert’s Congressional seat. All of this bodes exceptionally poorly for Wallis, and we rate this seat at Leans Democratic. 

Minnesota HD 3B

This seat sits within St. Louis and Lake counties, avoiding taking in much of the city of Duluth. Primarily taking in its surrounding small cities and a small portion of the mining area of the state’s Iron Range. In the past, this would have likely been a safe Democratic seat, but no longer. Since the Second Republican Revolution of 2010, Democrats have been losing significant ground in the majority of their turf around Lake Superior. Granted, former Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan held the region’s Congressional seat until 2018 when Republicans picked up one of just three seats that year

This seat did vote for Biden by just north of 5.5 points, but currently has a Republican incumbent, Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar. Zeleznikar carried the seat in 2022 at the same time that now-VP nominee Tim Walz did with a slightly smaller margin. We have this seat at Leans Democratic for a few reasons. Firstly, and not the least of which, is that a Minnesotan native son is on the Presidential ticket. Republicans, again, won’t be seeing a national environment akin to 2022, so Zeleznikar can’t count on midterm backlash to Democrats. For these reasons, Zeleznikar could certainly to go down this year, and help Democratic odds of having a fully Democratic delegation to the State House from the Iron Range once again. 

North Carolina HD 5

This seat was one of the handful across the eastern part of the state where Democrats fell flat in 2022, and also one that wasn’t redrawn at all for the 2024 cycle due to the state’s county clustering scheme. It contains Hertford, Gates, Pasquotank, and Camden counties. Camden is in the northeast of the state and home to the Great Dismal Swamp and was one of the most right-trending areas of the state that year. In age's past, this used to be a seat that Democrats could win reliably. They were able to be pulling strong margins from the former three counties mentioned, and not getting entirely blown out in Camden. Now, Democrats only reliably carry Hertford, Republicans reliably carry Gates and Camden, with Pasquotank as a battleground. Biden only won the seat by 84 votes while winning the national vote by over four.

Former Democratic Rep. Howard Hunter, a relative of Mississippi Senate candidate Mike Espy, is running for his old seat again against now-Rep. Bill Ward. Hunter has the benefit of Kamala Harris spending a lot of time and resources in the state and could see a potential turnout boost from a Black woman running for President. Additionally, current State Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton appears to have energized Democrats, especially younger ones, throughout the state. For Ward, if something is to save him it’ll be the combination of the incumbency advantage and the area trending towards Republicans. Harris may cause something of a reversion to the seat’s past partisanship, however, it likely won’t be enough that Ward isn’t capable of holding on. Especially so with the deep red of Camden County anchoring the seat. 

As of right now, we are slightly favoring Ward to be re-elected. Democrats have a decent number of incumbents to defend, as well as seats to focus on in more promising areas that are trending towards them. Hunter could always pull off an upset, but for now, we have the seat at Leans Republican. The deep red of the Outer Banks is a hard force to counteract.

Ohio HD 35

This seat is a newly redrawn competitive seat in the northeast of the state encompassing parts of Summit, Kent, and Geauga counties. The seat is among the most college-educated in the state and has seen Democratic gains throughout most of the district in recent years. Trump won it in 2020 by 356 votes, which is a far cry from a margin that Republicans would have been able to hit during their heyday in the pre-Trump era. Two years after Trump narrowly carried the seat, Tim Ryan flipped it in his bid for Ohio’s open Senate seat by about three points

So, what's happening this year? The seat is about as pure of a tossup as one can be, so making a call proves difficult. On the Democratic side, they have the notable benefit of Sherrod Brown running statewide. Even in the event of a Brown loses this is an area he’d likely perform well in, which may propel the Democrat, Mark Curtis, to victory. US Rep. Emilia Sykes is also running for re-election, so the Summit County area will likely be flooded with ads from her campaign. It, also, shifted 4 points to the left between 2016 and 2020, which will likely work to benefit Curtis.

For Republican Rep. Steve Demitrou, the main advantage going for him is incumbency, but even that is somewhat questionable given that the seat was redrawn after 2022. Ancestral Republican partisanship and vote rolloff for down ballot races should also help, but they’re likely not going to play an enormous factor in a potential win. For these reasons, we rate this seat at Leans Democratic. 

Washington LD 12

Last but certainly not least, we have Washington’s LD 12. This seat contains portions of King and Snohomish counties, and all of Chelan County. Democrats have gained notable ground in the area in recent years. Perhaps most prominently US Rep. Kim Schrier (D) flipping the area’s US House seat in 2018 for the first time in over a decade. Biden would have carried the seat by just short of three points in 2020 almost exclusively due to his margins in the King County portion of the district (which is also the population hub; a similar story to Rep. Schrier’s wins in her district). 

Despite the area’s slight Democratic lean, it would appear that Republicans are very much favored in the seat, which will be sending a State Senator and two State Representatives to Olympia this fall. A former State Rep. for the seat, Keith Gohner (R) is running for the district’s Senate seat to succeed a fellow Republican. In the State House, Democrats are only contesting one of the district’s seats (the A seat), leaving the B seat to be an R vs R contest. While the Democrat, Heather Koellen, did get the most votes in the primary, the electorate was still about 55% Republican. Washington’s Governorship is also up, and the electorate shifts significantly to the right vs the national electorate, which is likely to hamper down ballot Democrats. 

So, we’re issuing two Leans Republican ratings, one for the Senate seat and one for the A seat in the State House, and a Safe Republican rating for the B seat in the State House. Democrats can hope for solid trends all they want, but failing to run a candidate drops the odds of winning a seat to 0.  This is made even more ironic due to the chance that Chelan County flips to Kamala Harris (it begins at Lean R as well, but it could well happen).