Perhaps no state this election cycle ignites debate quite like Virginia. Because it is not one of the core battlegrounds, there is always bound to be discussion about how competitive it actually is. 

When last writing about Virginia in June, the prospect of it going red seemed more realistic given President Biden’s struggles in the polls. Since then, the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris has lifted Democratic chances.

Still former President Trump and his campaign continue to insist Virginia is in play. The lack of polls hasn’t helped, but the few since Biden dropped out are still showing a close race.

It’s easy to read too much into one poll, especially when polls in neighboring North Carolina showing Harris making gains there. Taking a look at the big picture may give us a better sense of what’s actually going on in Virginia. 

What Has Changed 

The biggest change with Harris as the nominee is increased enthusiasm among the Democratic base. In Virginia, the most important consequence is increased interest among African-American voters. They make up roughly 20% of the population and are critical to Democrats in any election here. While Trump never was going to win large numbers of them, the risk with Biden was low turnout. With Harris, there is an opportunity to get more African-American voters to the polls. 

Another group potentially more engaged now are young voters, where turnout is often an issue for Democrats. Virginia has a number of college towns and Harris has the potential to increase her margins in these places by getting students out.

Finally, a bit of an under discussed group is the growing South Asian community in Virginia. The nomination of Suhas Subramanyam as the Democratic candidate in the open VA-10 race shows the growing influence of these voters in Virginia. The story of Harris’s mother is familiar to many who came here as immigrants, and could bump up her numbers with this group. 

What Has Stayed the Same 

At the same time, the fundamental dynamics in Virginia remain unchanged. Democrats need to run up the score in Northern Virginia, Republicans in rural areas. Hampton Roads remains the battleground area. All things be equal, Democrats have the edge if they are able to get more of their voters out.

And of course Trump remains the nominee and a polarizing figure in Virginia. He is perhaps the biggest hurdle for the GOP to flip the state at the Presidential level. Governor Glenn Youngkin was able to win in part by attempting to distance himself from Trump in 2021, and there is no indication Trump’s brand has rebounded here.

Trump did make a recent trip to Virginia, where he made a controversial visit to Arlington National Cemetery, and also to a well known Vietnamese shopping center in Northern Virginia, the Eden Center. The visit highlighted two important groups in Virginia, veterans and the growing immigrant population.

Current active duty service members and veterans make up a good chunk of Virginia’s voters. They are particularly important in Hampton Roads, home to many military bases and an area that tends to swing away from the party in the White House. At the same time, with the controversy surrounding Trump’s trip to Arlington National Cemetery, it’s not clear if that might dampen some of the support he would expect to receive from that group.

In Northern Virginia, the growing immigrant population is also an area the Trump campaign is attempting to court, particularly Asian and Hispanic voters. However, these groups continue to be overwhelmingly Democratic in Virginia, and it is not clear if Trump can make any meaningful inroads.

While Trump will help drive turnout among white working class voters, he will continue to struggle with college-educated voters in the suburbs. In addition, his plans to change civil service protections for some Federal employees is also not going to help in a state with a lot of government jobs. All that is to say Trump is facing another poor showing in Northern Virginia, which will be difficult to make up in the rest of the state.

What’s Actually Going On

Ultimately, Virginia’s competitiveness is in the eye of the beholder. There is enough to argue Virginia could be in play. At the same time, the upturn in Democratic fortunes means it is unlikely to flip unless Harris suddenly collapses in the polls. 

Republicans should be careful not to go chasing waterfalls from when they were riding high in the polls with Biden was still in the race. Democrats should also not feel like they are owed a win and not take anything for granted. 

Still the recent polling shows Harris has at least a 3 point lead, although there have been too few Virginia polls to take only this into account. Factoring national and other state polling, it is likely that lead is currently between 5-10. That’s been around what Democrats have been getting the last decade, and this doesn’t seem to be the cycle that will change that. 

In reality, neither side is doing much in Virginia, besides opening some offices and campaign staff. The majority of ad spending is in the core battlegrounds, reflecting where the campaigns think the election will be won and lost. 

Still, Virginia early voting is among the first in the nation starting on September. It will give an interesting peek at the level of interest and engagement. Expect there to be a lot of turnout in Virginia on both sides, and lots of discussion about state of the race until the votes start being reported.

*Sam Shirazi is an Attorney who lives in Arlington, and is a Virginia elections analyst.