Louisville, Kentucky’s largest city, is home to the state’s sole Democratic representative in Congress, Rep. Morgan McGarvey. Since the turn of the century, Democrats in Kentucky have had little cause for optimism in the state, losing every Senate election and the vast majority of House races. Louisville, however, has held strong. It elected Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in 2006, and its 3rd district has remained in Democratic hands since then. It is only fitting that this region will make or break Andy Beshear’s 2023 gubernatorial bid.

Jefferson County, where Louisville sits, is safely Democratic in almost every regard. Beshear’s margins here are important, and involve turning out the city’s African American community, but what will prove to be more critical are the counties surrounding Jefferson. The collar counties of Louisville have long been among the most conservative parts of the state, and backed Matt Bevin in 2019 by eleven points. Beshear is unlikely to flip the four at large (Bullitt, Oldham, Shelby, and Spencer) but his margins here may earn him a second term.

Oldham and Bullitt counties are stereotypical suburbs for the most part with each having some rural turf in the outskirts. Oldham has seen a much bigger shift left than Bullitt, one of the counties George Wallace carried in his independent bid for President. Bullitt is likely not going to flip, but Oldham could. Shelby County is an odd mix of mid-sized city (Shelbyville) and Louisville exurbs. It could flip, but that might be a stretch with Republican nominee Daniel Cameron being from *somewhat* nearby Elizabethtown. Louisville’s exurbs are spreading into Spencer, but is otherwise a rural county. It will be solidly in Cameron’s column next week, but if Beshear can hold the margin to twenty instead of thirty it will be a much better night for him.

Accordingly, Beshear’s main target to flip in this region would be Oldham County. The county only went to Bevin by about 5 points in 2019, and is the wealthiest county in the state. The map below on the left show’s Beshear’s performance here by precinct. His strength was most concentrated in the La Grange area along I-71, but he did win precincts closer to the Jefferson County line. The map below on the right, courtesy of Redistricter, shows the average income in the county, with purple being higher and orange being lower. The wealthiest communities, averaging over $200k/year of household income, sit along the county line. Beshear put up a decent performance here for a Democrat in 2019, but he’ll need to do better next week. These wealthy, college educated communities have shifted heavily towards Democrats in recent years, and Beshear will need to further this trend to carry Oldham, and have a chance to retain the governorship. 

The one part of Jefferson County itself that Beshear needs to be concerned about is the conservative eastern end, which looks much like Oldham County. One specific area that would be useful to examine is SD 36, which is the state’s sole federally competitive State Senate seat (shown below). The seat was drawn specifically to exclude Worthington, a very Democratic area, and backed Trump by three points. Beshear carried it by about six in 2019, and he’ll likely need to crack double digits this time around. This will likely entail breaking into Republican-dominated Eastwood, and flipping some precincts on the western and southern ends of the seat.

Given their trends favoring Democrats, Beshear is likely going to need to flip Oldham County and improve upon his margins in SD 36 if he’s going to win. If he does win Oldham, he’ll have done something only his father, Steve Beshear, has achieved in recent memory. Additionally, it will signal the rural nature of the Kentucky Democrat’s coalition is on its way out, with new urban and suburban voters being ushered in.

As a coda on the new suburban coalition, Kentucky’s HD 93, in suburban Lexington, is also having its special election next week. Biden won this seat, which contains many of Lexington’s southwestern suburbs, by about 17 points. The former representative, Lamin Swann (D), died earlier this year. 2022 Republican nominee Kyle Whalen has outraised his Democratic opponent Adrielle Camuel.  In a controversial county committee vote, Camuel was nominated by a committee on which she sat, though abstained from voting. This is Camuel’s first election, and by the accounts of some Kentucky Democrats, is a lackluster candidate. Emma Curtis, once a contender for the seat’s Democratic nomination, rescinded her endorsement. There are headwinds, but Camuel will likely be pulled across the line by Andy Beshear and the seat’s federal partisanship. Pivot Point rates this seat as Leans D out of an abundance of caution.