A Boring News Day

Joe Biden made history yesterday in choosing to end his campaign for a second term as President. This had not happened since Lyndon B. Johnson choose to cease his re-election bid in 1968. Currently, however, we’re living through a much different situation that Johnson faced. Biden has won a majority of delegates necessary to secure the Democratic nomination, whereas Johnson withdrew from the race quickly after a narrow win in the New Hampshire primary. Vice President Harris, accordingly, is a clear frontrunner for the job.

Following his statement yesterday, Biden endorsed Harris, and the Democratic establishment quickly fell in line (whilst pledging support for a democratic process in the convention). Harris, at this stage in the process, is exceptionally likely to become the Democratic nominee. With the Democratic convention happening within a month, Harris needs to select a VP nominee fast.

Speculation about Harris’s eventual pick largely lined up with her publicly released shortlist. This list contained big names to balance the ticket: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. This article will highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each choice in terms of what they have to offer the ticket.

Before we delve into the subject, Pivot Point want to acknowledge that Harris’s potential VP nominees are all straight, white men. Ideally, Harris would feel free to choose a nominee of any race, gender, and sexuality that she pleased. While accepting the reality of Harris needing to attempt to make her ticket as non-controversial as possible, while acknowledging that her picks are limited due to outdated views about job competence amongst the electorate.

Governor Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear skyrocketed to prominence in 2019 after defeating Matt Bevin (R) for the gubernatorial election in Kentucky, ascending to the job his father had  job from 07-15, his position of Attorney General that he had narrowly won in 2015. Defeating a Republican governor in the 5th reddest state in the country seemed unthinkable during the Trump era, yet Beshear pulled it off. He won re-election last November with a 5-point margin, a margin only dreamed of for modern statewide Democrats in Kentucky.

During his tenure, Beshear has had successes despite having to contend with a Republican-supermajority legislature. He became a regular face on TVs across the state during the COVID-19 pandemic, easing concerns of Kentuckians and those beyond the state about the radical changes that the pandemic forced upon us, and assuring people that things would indeed get better. When floods and tornados impacted the state, he quickly became the face of the recovery, and has helped to create new housing and infrastructure in the regions impacted by these disasters. Additionally, while Beshear was Attorney General, he frequently sued the Bevin administration, halting his attempted expansion of the Governor’s power. He also sued pharmaceutical companies for their role in the state’s opioid crisis, which could become especially relevant as Eastern Kentucky has high opioid addiction rates in a country with high opioid addiction rates

Having a nationally known name like Beshear on her ticket is obviously appealing for Harris (also a former state AG). Beshear also represents a partially Southern constituency, which is something Harris desperately needs given the shifting Democratic coalition. Biden was first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win Georgia, came within striking distance of North Carolina, and pushed Texas to lower single-digits. If Harris wants to expand her playing field, a Southerner (especially one with more moderate aesthetics) is a good call.

Beshear also offers a greater appeal to religious voters. He has regularly publicly worshipped during his tenure as governor, and encouraged residents to attend virtual church services during the pandemic. This may help further persuade Southern voters to vote for the ticket, while also helping make up Democratic losses in rural turf throughout the nation. To a comparable extent, he also exudes the “nice young man” vibe that is difficult to quantify the power of amongst older voters. This youth would help to bring a further refreshing image to the ticket, which had been plagued by Biden’s age-attributed gaffes.

Strategically in regards to officeholders, Beshear is likely the best choice of the trio. Beshear’s career trajectory is nearing a dead end. Democrats likely will not win another statewide race in Kentucky for some time, and it seems unlikely that Beshear would attempt to pursue another term as Attorney General, or go for another statewide office. This leaves either shooting for a Congressional seat (which may prove to be an uphill battle against KY-06 Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) or controversial if he attempts to primary Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville)), or attempting to go national. Being offered the VP slot affords him the ability to go national, and remain politically relevant.

As for downsides of Beshear, he has faced controversy for closing churches for in-person services during the pandemic. Several current state legislators have won their races due to their opposition to Beshear doing this. Beshear’s religiosity, while an aid in persuading some voters, may also prove to be a detriment to getting younger voters on board with the campaign. Younger Americans are among the most secular generations in known memory, so having an openly, prominently religious governor may not be the best call to lock down this critical demographic. 

Furthermore, Beshear only offers broad deliverables vs concrete deliverables in terms of electoral votes. Choices like Kelly and Shapiro both serve to help secure crucial swing states. Beshear will not be bringing Kentucky to the table, and adding him onto the ticket will likely only serve to increase Democratic margins in the state this fall to a 60/40 loss instead of 65/35. His ascendence will, in theory, broadly attract more Southern voters, but this may be a relatively diffuse effect. The Harris campaign may want to opt for a candidate that will help lock down a state, which the aforementioned duo and potentially outgoing NC Governor Roy Cooper (D-Nashville) can offer.

Senator Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly made Arizona history by winning former Senator John McCain’s (R-AZ) Senate seat, giving the state an all-Democratic Senate duo until Kyrsten Sinema’s party switch to an independent. Kelly first won the seat in a special election, and then won it shortly after in a regular election. Prior to his entry into politics, Kelly was a naval pilot who flew combat missions in the Gulf War, and later became an astronaut (along with his twin brother Scott). After the shooting of his wife (former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D)), Kelly began to set a more political track, founding a gun control non-profit to advocate for gun reform after this shooting and the Sandy Hook school shooting.

During his time in the Senate, Kelly had served on the Armed Forced Committee, and worked on armed forces-centric legislation, as well as environmental topics and issues concerning Native American reservations. During the Senate’s lame duck session prior to the inauguration of Joe Biden, Kelly voted to halt the Trump administration’s weapons sales, and also voted to impeach the former President. 

Kelly, unlike Beshear, offers the Harris campaign a crucial swing state. Arizona will in all likelihood prove critical in deciding who becomes President. Especially with concerns of Hispanics defecting from the Democratic party, having a Senator from a Southwestern state as the VP nominee may help to shore up this part of the Democratic coalition. Arizona also has two competitive Congressional districts (AZ-01 and AZ-06) and control of the State Legislature on the line, and choosing Kelly could help to propel Democrats to a position of strength in the state.

It has also been some time since there has been a veteran either as President or Vice President (the last was Al Gore, who served in Vietnam). Democrats improved among military voters in 2020, and retaining them may prove critical to securing the electoral votes of some states. Kelly would be in a position to help in this effort, both with his lived experience in the armed forces and his work in the US Senate. 

The last of Kelly’s primary benefits is that he was an Independent-turned-Democrat. On the surface of things, this may seem like a hinderance, but one must examine independent voters in recent years. More than ever, the number of independent voters is on the rise, highlighting the broad disaffection with the American public of political parties and their elites. Kelly having chosen a party makes him uniquely qualified to speak to these voters and to understand their concerns. 

What are the downsides of Kelly? For one, he does not have much experience in politics to draw upon. He will have served as an elected official for under 5 years as of election day 2024, which is more than former President Trump, but there may be the perception of an experience gap vs Harris (who served as California Attorney General and one of its US Senators prior to becoming VP) or former VP Mike Pence (who has been a congressman and a governor). The image of an outsider may be refreshing to some, but the overall impact of Kelly’s governing experience would have to be determined once he ascends to the VP slot. 

There is also the regional issue that arises by choosing Kelly. Both Harris and Kelly are from the Western US, which doesn’t help the narrative of “west coast elites” that conservative media would be likely to spew in the event of a Harris/Kelly ticket. Granted, the Pacific Coastal states and the Southwest haven’t had representation in the Presidency or VP slot since Ronald Reagan won the Presidency in 1980, but having the ticket so heavily western might not play well in Midwestern or Eastern swing states.

Choosing a strongly gun-control favoring VP may also elicit more outside spending in favor of gun rights/the Trump/Vance ticket. Most recent Democratic tickets have advocated gun control/reform to some extent, but none have had a gun control nonprofit-founder on the actual ticket. There is a risk that this makes the issue one of “clear and present danger” to groups like the NRA, who may try to force the issue to prominence in the campaign. 

Lastly, there is the issue of taking Kelly’s clearly strong brand away from Arizona. Sure, in the event of Kelly vacating his Senate seat, he would have Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs to appoint a placeholder, but a special election would then be triggered. There may be backlash to the hypothetical new Harris/Kelly administration like Biden and Harris saw in 2021 in Virginia and New Jersey, or failing that, a bad midterm in 2026. It may be wiser for Harris, thinking of the long term, to not uproot a valuable Senator.

Governor Josh Shapiro

While Beshear and Kelly both got their starts in elected office in the last 10 years, Josh Shapiro has almost two decades of being in elected office to draw upon. He began his political career as a State Representative from Montgomery County in the Pennsylvania State House, where he served for 4 terms. He then returned home to Montgomery County, and won a seat on the county commission (of which he would later become the chair), flipping it from Republican control in 2012. In 2016, he would run to be Pennsylvania’s Attorney General, and would win two terms in office before winning a race against controversial State Senator Doug Mastriano to become Pennsylvania’s governor and winning by a large margin.

As Attorney General, Shapiro investigated and prosecuted members of the Catholic Church who engaged in the act of abuse or covering it up, which later triggered comparable investigations across the country. Like Beshear, Shapiro also sued opioid manufacturers for their role in addiction crises in communities across the state, whilst favoring the decriminalization of marijuana. He also sued (along with other Attorneys General) to halt the Trump administration’s implementation of a travel ban from majority-Muslim countries.

In his two years as Governor, Shapiro has had to deal with a Republican-led Senate as an obstruction to his policy goals. Still, he managed to get most of his budget priorities enacted (albeit not without some controversy, to be discussed). One of his more immediate accomplishments was using an Executive Order to eliminate college degree requirements for state jobs. With assistance from the DOT, Shapiro also managed to rebuild a critical portion of I-95 after a major accident in record time, winning him praise in many circles. 

In terms of strengths, Shapiro is a tried and tested candidate with a lot of experience, while being significantly younger that both Biden and Trump. He has proven himself electorally, winning Pennsylvania while Trump carried the state in 2016, outperforming Biden in 2020, and winning a swing state by double digits in 2022. Despite all this, he still has bipartisan credentials, as evidenced in his governing ability. Needless to say, adding Shapiro to the ticket would help to lock down a critical swing state, and may help to secure other Democratic-leaning states in the Rust Belt. Shapiro’s LG is also a Democrat, so his potential ascension would leave the state in Democratic hands. 

Shapiro is also an effective speaker, which is something that the Democratic Party definitely needs (given that its most effective speaker is currently the Secretary of Transportation). Beshear can come off as robotic at times, and while Kelly is no slouch, Shapiro’s speaking ability has won him great favor, such as speaking on the attempted assassination of former President Trump and those killed as a result. Both Biden and Trump struggled in the coherence of their speaking at different times, and having a well-spoken VP may prove to be a useful quality in a member of the campaign. 

Shapiro decidedly does come with his downsides. One of the more concerning areas is in regards to the Israel-Palestine conflict. It was a point that younger voters hammered the Biden administration on prior to his withdrawal from the race, and it’s an area where the Harris campaign is going to need to work to regain votes. Shapiro’s Jewish faith is not the issue here (and one’s religion should not be a problem for any VP candidate), it is that Shapiro has been vocally on the side of Israel in the conflict, seemingly without providing nuance to his statements, in spite of the ICJ and UN’s statements about the atrocities that Israel and the IDF have committed. This may serve to further drive the young, Palestinian-favoring voting block away from the Democratic ticket, and will likely hurt them in places like Wayne County Michigan, which is home to Detroit and one of the largest Muslim populations in the US.

Additionally, Shapiro voiced support for a measure that would expand funding to charter schools in Pennsylvania, along with the Republican-led state senate, in contrast with Beshear who has been adamantly opposed to public funding for charter schools in Kentucky. This is a no-go for many educators who overwhelmingly align with the Democratic Party, given that funding charter schools usually involves de-funding public schools. If Shapiro was chosen for the ticket, he would have to strike a much more moderate or liberal tune to win back education-minded voters, and also the younger uncommitted protest voter demographic due to his comments on Israel.

Shapiro leaving his post would make his LG, Austin Davis, the governor, but this creates a risky situation for a 2026 midterm. Shapiro has proven himself to be a strong incumbent, and while Davis won a primary to get his spot on Shapiro’s ticket, he has yet to prove himself statewide. Leaving an unknown quantity to run for governor may trigger a competitive primary, and either way may put the seat in jeopardy due to the midterm backlash against a President’s party. 

A Not-So-Secret 4th Option: North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper

One commonly speculated potential VP that came as a surprise not to make Harris’s shortlist was North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. It’s worth examining Cooper in the event that the aforementioned trio are dropped from consideration for other reasons. Cooper has been on the political scene for decades, and there’s a lot to like about him for the Harris campaign.

Roy Cooper began his career in the North Carolina State Senate and House of Representatives, and later ascended to become the state’s Attorney General. He won several terms in the office, including in 2012 when he won re-election with no Republican having filed for the office. In 2016, Cooper ran against unpopular Governor Pat McCrory, and narrowly won the election. He would win re-election by a wider margin in 2020, even as Biden and then-Senate Nominee Cal Cunningham lost the state. 

As Attorney General, he promoted school safety taskforces in the wake of the Virginia Tech shooting, and many of his higher-profile cases were related to issues centering around kids and education. Cooper also battled with the McCrory administration on a coal ash spill, and attempted to hold him and Duke Energy responsible for the accident. As an opponent of the Bathroom Bill that cost the state the NCAA tournament prior to his election, he was situated on prime ground to run for Governor. 

As Governor, Cooper has been relatively constrained by a Republican legislature. For a time, his veto was able to stand (a power that he had fought for the governor to have while he was still a state legislator), and many Republican bills met the business end of his veto stamp during this time. Still, Cooper managed to secure Medicaid expansion for the state, providing greater health insurance coverage to thousands of North Carolinians. While not possessing veto power over redistricting matters, Cooper has advocated for fair maps throughout the turmoil of the state’s seemingly never-ending redistricting process. Cooper was also governor throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, and attempted to limit the spread of the virus primarily through his use of executive authority. 

Cooper sits in a similar situation to Governor Beshear in that his political future is up in the air after his term as governor ends this fall. There are no longer competitive Congressional seats to seek, and Cooper’s desire to pursue another office in North Carolina’s Council of State is uncertain. Being chosen as a VP is the best way to level up if he wishes to do so, or else wait two years for a Senate seat to come up for grabs. 

While it proved to be an issue for both Biden and Trump, Cooper’s relative age may serve to be a benefit to the ticket. Compared to Harris, Cooper may seem more experienced, equivalent to what Biden offered the Obama campaign in 2008 and 2012. His legislative and executive experience may serve as valuable insight for Harris in what is likely to be either a divided government, or a Republican-controlled government. 

Cooper also brings an elusive swing state to the table. North Carolina hasn’t voted federally for a Democrat since 2008 (and before that 1976), although margins have been close. The state was the closest Trump-won state in the country in 2020, and if the Harris campaign wants to expand the electoral map, North Carolina is their opportunity to do so. It also helps that Cooper has won statewide five times, and is from the Eastern area of the state, where Democrats have worried about losing ground after the results of the 2022 Senate election.

As a downside, Cooper leaving the state to campaign makes it so that his Lieutenant Governor will take the reins. The current LG is Mark Robinson (R), who is running a controversial campaign for governor. Some of his comments include saying that “some people [liberals] just need killing” and engaging in anti-Semitism and other xenophobia. Robinson and the legislature might attempt to pull some kind of lame-duck-esque session while Cooper is out of state, resulting in a crisis of potentially large magnitude. 

There is also the question of how defensively Democrats should play the Electoral College calculus. Current polling has suggested a neck-and-neck race, which would be around a 3-point shift rightwards from 2020. This is not to say Democrats will be unable to win the Presidency, however, it does mean that they’ll have to campaign more strategically. Given North Carolina having voted consistently to the right of the nation in most of recent history, North Carolina might be a state that the campaign would want to focus less on. North Carolina will likely not be abandoned due to State Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton having been a former campaign worker of Harris’s 2020 Presidential bid, and having breathed energy and life back into the state Democratic Party after the 2022 wipeout, but a safer choice like Kelly or Shapiro in this sense might be more appealing. 

The nominees on Harris’s VP shortlist have the potential to add great deal to the ticket. Vance was added to the Trump ticket to help with the Midwest (which in practice is doubtful he’ll be able to do as he underperformed in his only election) and to be a youthful face on the campaign trail. Harris’s choices all help in in expanding the electoral map, balancing Harris’s personality and record, and other fields. Overall, it would appear most likely on paper that the campaign goes with Governor Andy Beshear as a nominee. It presents them with the least to lose in terms of offices, and while Beshear doesn’t bring a state to the Democratic column, he may be useful in a wider variety of conditions, and further soothes the concerns voters who were weary of octogenarian Presidents. 

There will be more updates on the situation for you as election season progresses. The nation was living through unprecedented times prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, and the times are in all likelihood going to continue to be wild. Stay tuned.