Democrats have done relatively well in elections since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, considering they are the party in power in the White House. Part of the reason has been Democrats increasingly strong performance with high propensity voters, those that vote in every election.

These voters tend to be more educated and more well off, typically living in the suburbs. The rise of Donald Trump and renewed importance of the abortion issue has accelerated a long term trend of these voters moving towards Democrats. 

However, despite Democratic successes with high propensity voters in recent elections, some have argued that Democrats have a problem with low propensity voters. The argument boils down to Democrats becoming the party of more educated voters who turn out every election, but that President Biden has a problem with less educated voters who only turn out in Presidential elections. As a result, recent Democratic electoral successes hides bigger problems Biden would have in 2024.

While they might not vote in a special election or even a midterm, low propensity voters are more likely to vote in a Presidential election. As a result, recent Democratic successes masks Trump’s potential underlying strength that lies below the surface. The thinking goes just as high propensity voters have become more Democratic, low propensity voters have become more Republican. In particular, Trump has a unique appeal to this group of voters.

While there is some truth to this, the real story is more complicated. Both parties have low propensity voters and they look very different from each other.

GOP Low Propensity Voters

Republican low propensity voters tend to be white working class voters without a college degree, often abbreviated WWC voters. They are more rural and more religious than college educated white voters. These WWC voters are Trump’s base and helped him win the 2016 election. Their overwhelming support make him a heavy favorite for GOP nomination this year. 

There is debate about how much non-white working class voters have moved towards Republicans. Based on 2020 results, there is some evidence of movement, more so among Hispanic voters and less so among African-American voters.  However, both these groups still lean Democratic overall, and this seems to be the case among low propensity voters, even if they are more open to Trump. Republicans believe they have a shot at gaining more support among these voters in 2024, but their low propensity base is still overwhelmingly white.  

Democratic Low Propensity Voters

For Democrats, low propensity voters tend fall into two categories: working class voters of color and younger voters like college students. This diverse coalition was once referred to as the “Obama coalition” that helped lead to Democratic victories in 2008 and 2012. 

But these voters also largely failed to turn out for both of the Obama midterms in 2010 and 2014, leading to Democratic losses. Part of the reason something similar didn’t happen in 2022 is that Democrats are less dependent on these voters and have a larger base of high propensity voters.

However, these voters are still an important part of the Democratic calculation for winning presidential elections. Democrats need to get out their low propensity voters to offset Republican low propensity voters who only show up in presidential elections.

Democratic Warning Signs with Their Low Propensity Voters

Looking at 2024, there are warning signs that Democrats may have issues with their low propensity base. Younger progressive voters and the Muslim community have expressed frustration about how President Biden has handled the war in Gaza. The more conflict in Gaza and the wider Middle East continues, the more of a challenge Biden will have winning back these voters.

The economy is also an issue for low propensity Democratic voters as they tend to have less disposable income. While inflation has cooled, increased prices have generally hit these voters harder than high propensity voters. The recent rise in economic sentiment given low unemployment and better inflation numbers give Democrats hope they can seize the initiative on the economy. Still, Republicans believe that they have an opening to peel away support form non-White working class voters, just as they have with white working class voters.

Some commentators believe that low propensity Democratic voters could move towards Trump in big numbers, but that seems unlikely. Many of them voted against him in 2020 and have a deep dislike of his style of politics. For example, the precinct level data from the 2023 Virginia General Assembly elections show little movement towards Republicans either with non-white or young voters.

Instead, the bigger issue for Democrats is that these voters will vote for third parties or simply not show up. Essentially, Democrats have an enthusiasm problem with their low propensity base

GOP Advantages with Their Low Propensity Voters

This is where the GOP may have an advantage because their base of low propensity voters doesn’t have the same issue. Partly this is a result of being a the party out of the White House and partly this is Trump’s personal appeal to this group.

As a result, there is a possibility that Republican low propensity voters turnout at a higher rate than Democratic low propensity voters.  In addition, Republicans have some built in advantages because Republican low propensity voters tend to be older. Because older voters turnout at a higher rate than younger voters, Republicans usually have an easier time turning them out.

There is some evidence for this in the 2023 Virginia General Assembly elections. Democrats got to narrow majorities by winning competitive seats in wealthier suburban areas. But Democrats came up short in a number of competitive seats more dependent on African-American and young voters. 

For example, HD-82 is almost evenly divided between white and African-American working class voters. The incumbent GOP Delegate, Kim Taylor, won by just 53 votes after a recount. Her victory came from slightly higher turnout in the white Republican parts of the district as compared to the African-American Democratic parts of the district.

This turnout differential between Republican low propensity voters and Democratic low propensity voters can make the difference in close races.

The State of Play for 2024

For 2024, Democrats will need to figure out how to turnout their low propensity voters. Give the dissatisfaction from some parts of their base with Biden, this will likely happen by highlighting to the possibly of a Trump win.

After all, Democrats were able to turn out their low propensity base in 2020 to oust Trump. But Democrats were fairly unified back then and that is less the case today. Perhaps the answer could also be to focus on the abortion issue because this was no doubt part of the reason Democrats were able to over-perform in the midterms. 

Ultimately, Democrats do have an issue with low propensity voters. But it is not insurmountable and is likely to lessen the more the prospect of Trump returning to the White House becomes real. The key is to make these voters more enthusiastic about turning out by highlighting the consequences of not voting. In some ways, it is a challenge that Democrats always face, but all the more challenging this year in the current political environment. 

In 2024, Republican low propensity voters will most likely turn out for Trump. The big question is whether Democratic low propensity voters will turn out for Biden. There are warning signs right now, but the more likely a Trump return to White House becomes, the more Democrats will have a reason to turn out.

*Sam Shirazi is an Attorney who lives in Arlington, and is a Virginia elections analyst.