Next year, Washington could look remarkably different depending on how the presidential and congressional races shake out. Election modelers abound have the race for the White House at more or less the same spot - with Harris having a 55-60% chance of winning. Democrats have about the same odds of retaking the House. Democrats aren’t faring as well when it comes to the Senate with Split Ticket giving Republicans 73% chance of flipping the upper chamber. The difference between a Republican trifecta and Democrats retaining two of the three is on a knife’s edge… with the edge slighting tilted towards Democrats. Who controls the White House will be incredibly impactful to Democrats slim chances of holding on to the Senate. If Donald Trump wins and J.D. Vance becomes the President of the Senate then Democrats can all but kiss their chances goodbye. If Harris is able to get over the line, she currently is a clear, if narrow, favorite, Democrats have a glimmer of hope. Due to Democrats running well ahead of Harris in the traditional battleground states, we’ll be focusing on the core four “Majority Makers” of Montana, Ohio, Texas and Florida + a check in on Nebraska where Dan Osborn is, at least according to polling, giving Deb Fischer a run for her money. 

Last week we covered the shootout in Big Sky between three-term Senator Jon Tester and his opponent businessman Tim Sheehy. We’ll move on to the other seat Democrats are defending - Ohio - before moving over to the “Majority Makers” currently held by Republican Senators next week. We’ll be giving you the updated status of each race, and hopefully illuminate the showdowns happening on election day. 

We’ve talked to you about the race to control the chamber before, and the GOP were always favored to win this race given the terrain on which the battle would be fought. Given the changing coalitions, you don’t want to be defending West Virginia, Montana and to a lesser extent Ohio, and that’s not even mentioning the traditional battlefield where Democrats are currently defending seats in five of the seven battleground states. Joe Manchin retiring closed one of their avenues to retain the majority, though it was never more than a nearly impossible task. However, the odds have shifted notably in the GOP’s favor with the vast majority of forecasters moving Montana’s race from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. As of now, we would predict a 51-49 Republican majority, with Republicans winning the auto-flip of West Virginia and a narrow win in Montana. They are probably kicking themselves for prioritizing Tim Ryan so much over Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin last cycle. But there is a reason we actually run the races. No shade at Tim Ryan, but it was always a much bigger hill to climb.

Something that both Tester and Sherrod Brown (D - Ohio) have in common is being able to pass off left-leaning populism as moderation. In Brown’s case, he is able to effectively position himself as an extremely pro-working class candidate, focusing on decreasing healthcare costs without implementing Medicare for All, protecting union jobs in newly Republican areas of the state to strengthen his blue collar credentials, and highlighting his financial protection of the working class as chair of the Senate Banking Committee (incidentally, CFPB head Richard Cordray during the Obama administration was also from Ohio). Brown pursues policies that are undeniably on the left of the political spectrum, but how he goes about framing them is key. And the voters have undoubtedly bought into his version of the narrative. The union point is key in the current era. His lifelong stance on unions finds itself in an era where labor has had something of a revival, and union households vote for Democrats at a higher rate than the population at large.

Brown has been in the Ohio political scene for coming up on fifty years now, starting from when he was 23 years old. He’s a decade younger and not running to be president, but seemingly isn’t facing the same issue Joe Biden ran into this summer. Granted Brown didn’t have the debate performance either. He started as a State Representative and worked his way up to Secretary of State and then to be a congressman. In 2006, the same 6th Year Itch that brought John Tester into office also catapulted Brown to a landslide victory vs now-Governor Mike DeWine. DeWine didn’t have nearly as many gaffes as Conrad Burns did in Montana, but his floundering on the campaign trail caused national Republicans to pull money from the race, resulting in Brown carrying a majority of the state’s Congressional districts, and posting his largest margin of victory to date.

Brown saw his margins drop in 2012, at the same time that Barack Obama was running for re-election (and would ultimately also carry the state). He faced State Treasurer Josh Mandel in what was expected to be a close race, but Brown ultimately won by six points. Geographically speaking, Brown’s coalition took a massive hit. The days of Ohio Democrats doing well in the Appalachian east ended, and Brown’s overperformance vs Obama was relegated to the Scioto Valley and a trio of coal mining counties in the east. This trend continued in 2018, when Brown faced Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Brown’s coalition had become increasingly urban-centric every six years, with his margins increasing in the Cincinnati and Columbus areas (I-71 corridor) and dropping in the north of the state and Appalachia.

Also, like Tester, Brown will need to outrun Harris by a good margin if he has any hope to go back to Washington, though less so. Biden lost Ohio by just over 8% in 2020 and Harris is currently polling just behind that at 8.8% behind Trump. It’s a good thing for Brown that he’s currently polling 11.6% ahead of Harris. At least as far as polling is concerned, he is performing better than he did twelve years ago when he only outran Obama by two points. Judging the current polling versus election results is a dangerous game, but it’s the only tool we have. Biden was polling near Trump in 2020, but in the end, it wasn’t particularly close. Polling can’t be expected to be exact and any error, either its direction or amount, can’t be known in advance. But if there is a polling error in favor of Trump, like his first two races for the White House, that would not be good news for Sherrod Brown.

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Brown faces former car salesman Bernie Moreno this fall, in what will likely be his closest bid for re-election, win or lose. Car salesmen don’t have the best reputation to start with, and Moreno hasn't done himself any favors, getting into hot water repeatedly. Democrat’s fortunes in the Senate are tied directly to the candidate quality of their Republican challengers, if we’re being honest. Accordingly, Moreno got the Trump endorsement in the primary and was able to beat Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose with just over half of the vote. Brown was likely pretty happy with this outcome. Thus far, Brown has held a narrow but consistent lead over Moreno in the polls, including this morning's Marist poll finding him two points ahead. Moreno has attempted to go on the attack, but none seem to have particularly landed on the three-term Senator. On the other hand, Moreno himself is being attacked for comments about womens’ rights he made at a recent event suggesting older women shouldn’t care about abortion since they are too old to have children. The Republican is facing a similar fate to his partisan compatriots unable to adapt to the new equilibrium when it comes to reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs world. It’s easy to hold these views (well maybe not the one linked to above, but pro-life positions) when abortion is constitutionally protected and legal. It’s another thing entirely once you’ve caught the car, so to speak. Brown has been reliably pro-choice, and the state of Ohio appears to be with him on that issue. The state’s voters backed a ballot measure restoring abortion, and reproductive rights more broadly, to the state’s constitution… so these comments are undoubtedly going to bite Moreno. Abortion isn’t on the ballot directly this year in Ohio as it is in other states, but it might as well be. If there is a Republican trifecta, you can bet there will be some type of a national ban brought up for a vote. And if there isn’t, you can’t blame Democrats, or voters, for assuming it will happen given what has taken place in Republican controlled states since the overturning of Roe. We have seen electorates get energized by the issue, turning out for what once was pretty much exclusively a Democratic issue. Now, moderate Republicans or just voters without perfectly aligned policy preferences are able to have a say on matters directly. This breaking the mold may further break in Brown’s favor, as voters who are already venturing out of their political comfort zone a bit may be further incentivized to vote for Brown.

Speaking of ballot measures, this came in the wake of a cynical ploy by one of Moreno’s primary opponents, Frank LaRose, and state Republicans' failed attempt to impose a supermajority requirement on future measures (i.e. the aforementioned abortion one.) Now one could argue requiring only a simple majority to change a state’s constitution is too low but putting it up for a vote in August and for the expressed purpose of sabotaging the abortion ballot measure is clearly cynical. There is another ballot measure up this year. It concerns how the state will draw new legislative lines going forward. Now this is a presidential election year so the electorate will already be basically as big as it is going to be, but given recent Republican shenanigans when it comes to redistricting (read gerrymandering) one can’t be too certain whether it will change any votes. Together, these issues highlight that voter displeasure can be tangibly acted upon. Are you upset about how districts are drawn in Ohio, such that the Republican party has been able to retain power for the better part of a century? Vote for change. Are you scared about what Republicans in Washington are going to overrule last year's abortion measure? You can vote for Sherrod Brown.

A big hurdle for Brown will be limiting his losses in the northeast of the state. In recent years, the once Democratic region has swung hard to the right. Mahoning County (home to Youngstown) used to be one of the bluest counties in the state, but Trump won it in 2020 and will likely do so again this year. Ryan lost the county by three points two years ago. Brown probably needs to win Mahoning outright, which he is favored to narrowly do, but in essence needs to write off the other blue column counties of Trumbull and Ashtabula. He’s also likely to lose ground on the lakefront and can only afford to lose Ottawa County. In expanding the map, Brown has the opportunity to be the first Democrat to win Delaware County, to the north of Columbus, and he’ll probably need to do so. His recent wins have been in the six-point range, and he needs to hold together most of his 2018 coalition (and add newly mobilized voters) to be able to pull this off. Since 2018, Democrats have continued to increase their margins with college educated voters and slide with working class voters of all types.  

So, if Brown wants to get reelected he’ll need to rely on a variety of factors to overcome the state’s partisan lean. His personal brand, his opponent’s shortcomings, and in-state Republican’s shenanigans coming back to bite them. His brand has gotten them this far in his incredibly long career. Despite being a career politician he’s been able to portray himself as a man of the people and overcome the changing tides of his state. His opponent has given him a lot of help, and Brown has made him pay for his shortcomings with his considerable war chest. If there is any distrust of Republicans in the state Brown is likely to capitalize on it. In 2022, Democrats greatly overperformed expectations giving Democrats a great chance to keep their trifecta (which Democrats in New York and California subsequently squandered.) As of right now, we rate his seat as a Tossup, but if you put a gun to our heads, Brown is a slight favorite. We’ll be continuing this discussion next week when we head down to Texas. Keep your eye out for that and everything from Pivot Point as we close in on an incredibly important election.