Eastern Kentucky, our last region in our series, was quite possibly the kingmaker in the 2019 gubernatorial election. The teacher protests and undelivered campaign promises plagued Matt Bevin to the point where Andy Beshear won eleven Trump-won counties in the region, and would unseat Bevin by a few thousand votes. 

What areas constitute Eastern Kentucky is  open for debate. For the purposes of this article, it will be counties contained in the last iteration of KY-07 before its dissolution in the 90s (as shown below). Bevin won this region in 2019 by about 5 points, but made up most of his margin in the the deep red pockets of Lewis County and the trio of Lawrence, Martin, and Johnston. The northern blue pocket of the region are counties along the I-64 corridor, including Rowan (home to Morehead/Morehead State), Boyd (Ashland), and Elliott (home to Rocky Adkins, more on him below.) The southern pocket comes from former coal country, and includes counties like Floyd (home to the last EKY Democratic state rep, Ashley Tackett-Lafferty), Wolfe, and Magoffin. 

Will Beshear win the old 7th? Probably not. Still, his performance in this region will likely foreshadow how Tuesday night will go.

HD 99 was represented by the former minority leader and current Beshear advisor Rocky Adkins. It’s gone through a handful of iterations over the years, but currently it contains Elliott, Morgan, and Rowan Counties. It was Beshear’s best single district in EKY, winning it by twelve points. One of the first red flags to look for on election night is if Beshear is hemorrhaging here. Rowan County is almost certain to stay blue, but margins are near certain to fall off a bit due to the realignment. If Beshear keeps the seat close to D+10, he’ll probably be fine. Rocky's relationship with the governor will likely keep Elliot blue, but it flipping would be a big deal symbolically for Beshear and the state Democratic Party at large.

The Red River Gorge area has seen Democrats losing ground in recent years, but still remains relatively Democratic downballot. It contains Menifee, Powell, and Wolfe, one of Beshear's best in EKY, counties. The Gorge itself is a mecca for hikers and climbers, with people from dozens of states visiting daily to see what the area has to offer. Notably, Senator Mitch McConnell flipped Wolfe in 2020. Wolfe County Democrats still have a fairly strong brand, but the county flipping would raise alarm bells for the party.

The region itself is unlikely to mean much for Beshear given that it's smaller than a state house district. If the margins grow larger than R+5 though, it might indicate that Beshear is in trouble. What cause might Democrats have for optimism? Beshear has been working to expand mountain highways in neighboring counties. Tourism is also a big draw to the Gorge region, and such areas have been trending Democratic in recent years, which could prove useful.

SD 18 is the last Appalachian district held by a Democrat in the state senate (Sen. Robin Webb, D-Grayson). Federally, it’s an extremely Republican district, even without Lewis County (home to US Rep Thomas Massie), but at the state level, it takes Lewis to give the seat its right lean. Beshear lost it by about 3.5 points in 2019, and that margin will likely drop a bit. Greenup and Carter counties have purged their last Democratic row office holders, and the only Democrat to win precincts in Lewis County in recent memory was Rocky Adkins. 

Ashland, in Boyd County, likely remains the only bright spot for Democrats in this seat. The city of just over 20,000 sits across the river from Huntington, WV, and is the last major stop on I-64E in Kentucky. Expect Beshear to see some mixed results in the areas adjacent to the city. There are some small suburbs that he could see some gains from 2019, but it's also an area that has been hit hard economically in recent years. National Democrat's environmental policies don't play very well in the resource extraction hub along the Ohio river . If Cameron can win this seat by more than seven the governor will have cause for concern.

Floyd County might be the second bluest county downballot in EKY, after Elliott. It's home to former state Attorney General and House majority leader Greg Stumbo, State Treasurer (currently running for State Auditor) Allison Ball, and, as mentioned earlier, the last Appalachian Democrat in the State House, Ashley Tackett-Lafferty, who took Stumbo’s old seat back from Republicans in 2016. 

The southern end of the county, home to coal mining operations were, interestingly, bluer than the county seat of Prestonburg. Areas like this used to be the backbone of the Appalachian Democratic party, but have shifted hard to the right in recent years. Beshear ran a strongly pro-education campaign in 2019 which helped him here, especially since he was running against the man who passed the controversial  Sewer Bill. This time around the bills sponsor in the House, Robby Mills, is Cameron's running mate.

Beshear will likely carry Floyd, but with a reduced margin and increased reliance on Prestonburg. There is not nearly as clear of an anti-education boogeyman as in 2019, and while Beshear is popular, popularity doesn’t always translate to votes.

The two bright spots, in addition to the highway expansion region of Magoffin County, are Letcher and Perry counties. The duo voted for Bevin in 2019 by about nine points, but there is some cause for optimism amongst Democrats in the region even with despite neighboring Harlan county being one of the banes of Democrats in recent years. 

•  Former Democratic State Rep. Angie Hatton (D-Whitesburg) actually won Letcher County in her 2022 bid for re-election, despite losing the seat at large (she now serves in a state agency), and Democrats hold all but one countywide row offices have given Democrats some optimism. 

•  Perry County is one of the few in Eastern Kentucky that has trended federally towards Democrats in recent years. The county is home to Hazard, which contains a community college and is the seat of a regional healthcare network. Biden actually gained 200 votes vs Clinton’s 2016 performance, and Trump *lost* votes here. 

•  This area and Knott County to the north have been heavily impacted by flooding in recent years. The Beshear administration has been very visible in their efforts to help rebuild the communities impacted. It's similar to the role Beshear played in Western Kentucky’s tornado recovery (albeit to less media coverage). Check after the election to see if Beshear gets an extra look by voters in this region.

While Pivot Point rates both counties at Lean Republican, Beshear is likely to improve on his 2019 margins here. A good sign on election night would be holding the duo to within 5 points. 

Beshear is likely to see his support drop in Eastern Kentucky, but he’s likely to be the best performing Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the region for a long time. The other statewide row offices have already fallen to Republicans, and ongoing realignment solidifying Republican downballot margins in the east. Democratic nominees, even if somehow successful, will likely see themselves only carring Rowan County. Any gains Beshear makes are likely to be his and his alone, and while he may secure the governorship with reduced EKY support, its unlikely to be counted on moving forward. Pivot Point rates the Kentucky Gubernatorial race as Lean Democrat.