The Senate Map

Democrats don’t have the best Senate map to work with this cycle in regard to attempting to shrink the Republican majority. The majority of Republican-held seats that could be competitive were up in 2022 and will not be up again until 2026. As such, there are only three seats to watch in the chamber for this year, and none of the trio are favored to flip outright: two held by Republicans (the 23rd and 27th) and one by a Democrat (the 37th). 

SD 37 is the only seat in the chamber where Democrats have to play defense this cycle, and only because it’s the *least* Democratic of any of their seats up for election. The district sits in southern Jefferson County, and contains some of Louisville’s more Republican communities. This being said, the district was carried by Joe Biden with an over 9-point margin in 2020, with Beshear having carried it in 2023 in a landslide (almost 40 points). The incumbent is Democrat David Yates, who also serves as the chamber’s minority whip. Yates first won his seat in a much less favorable district in 2020, and given the circumstances of the year with Harris almost certain to carry it combined with Democrats’ one seat to try to hold, we rate the seat at Likely Democratic. 

SD 23 is Northern Kentucky’s sole potentially competitive Senate Seat, and Democrats appear to have only relatively recently taken notice of that. The district contains most of the northern part of Kenton County, including the majority of the city of Covington. The 23rd’s current Senator is Republican Chris McDaniel (not to be confused with the Mississippi Chris McDaniel), who has represented the district since 2012. McDaniel, a veteran (and James Comer’s 2015 running mate in the Republican gubernatorial primary), maintains a decent presence in the seat, and appears to have personally been taking his race seriously. When first elected, McDaniel won with 60% of the vote. He went uncontested in 2016 and dropped to 57% in 2020. His challenger, Democrat Jenniffer Sierra, has seen her campaign ramp up in the weeks since our previous public assessment of Kentucky’s legislative races. 

We have the district at Likely Republican exclusively because three of Covington’s bluest precincts were cut from the seat, and moved to the 24th. Given the mixed urban/suburban character of the seat, Kamala Harris improving from Biden’s 2020 margins (a 13 point loss of the seat) is expected, especially given that Andy Beshear carried the seat by 10 points. Still, this isn’t going to amount to a Harris win in the seat given current polling. Sierra may outrun Harris, but is in all likelihood just going to hold McDaniel to a 10-point margin at best. 

SD 27 is where things are starting to get interesting. In 2020, Republicans decided to pack Democrats into a district in central Lexington and split the rest of the county across six other districts. The district had already contained Rowan County, home to Morehead, and one of the state’s most friendly towards downballot Democrats. This seat also lost Lewis County in the most recent round of redistricting in an attempt to oust Democratic Senator Robin Webb from SD 18. Incumbent Senator Steve West until recently, seemingly fell asleep at the wheel. Which has left Democrat to Molly Gene Crain (with support from the state Democratic Party) to take full advantage of this.

This all begs the question: Is it possible for a Democrat to win the 27th (that is, one not named Andy Beshear, who won it by 10 points in 2023 and 4 in 2019)? This was a seat that went to Trump four years ago by a 20-point margin but tends to be much bluer down ballot. Crain has two counties that move to her column from the get-go: Fayette and Rowan, with the former being safe, and the latter leaning her way. The district has six other counties that provide Republicans with most of their margins, but there are still some where Democrats are putting up a fight. Just based on event records, the Crain campaign has hit the central part of the district hard, so they would be making up ground in Bourbon (home to Paris), Fleming, Nicholas, and Robertson counties. Harrison and Mason counties have been hit relatively less and are in what's already a fairly rightward trending part of the state. If forced to make a prediction, Crain carries Fayette and Rowan counties, comes within striking distance of Bourbon, Fleming, and Robertson, loses Nicholas by a little more, and loses Harrison and Mason by the most.

Accordingly, we’re rating the seat at Leans Republican. West as the incumbent has a lot of factors going in his favor, but he most definitely was caught sleeping. Crain has the momentum, but this could be blunted by the late cash infusion meant to rescue his campaign. Regardless, this senate seat is going to be the one to watch on election night.

The State House

The State House map can be assessed by four competitive regions: EKY, NKY, the Bluegrass, and Greater Louisville. One area where it’s worth mentioning the *lack* of competitiveness, however, is Western Kentucky. Democrats did not run a single candidate in Warren (Bowling Green), Daviess (Owensboro), or Henderson counties in *any* of the overlapping districts. Between this trio, Andy Beshear carried 5 House seats, and granted, Democrats may not have begun as favorites in any of these (in large part due to gerrymandering), but a solid campaign could have built up to a win, like the trajectory of Adam Moore (D) in HD 45. The states are different, but it’s worth mentioning the differing tactics used by NC Dem chair Anderson Clayton who has prioritized running a Democrat in every seat. One seat each from Bowling Green and Owensboro is not a huge task for Democrats to achieve, and it speaks to the state of the party in the region that no candidates were run.

Bluegrass

Starting in the Bluegrass, we can see we have a trio of Democratic leaning House seats, and two that sit at Likely Republican. The first of these is the aforementioned Adam Moore’s 45th district. We covered this seat in our first edition of Seats to Watch, and the race to replace ousted Rep. Killian Timoney (R) has heated up. Timoney was primaried out by former Thomas Massie challenger Thomas Jefferson by a 2:1 margin after having run uncontested in 2022. Jefferson has not pivoted away from his primary mentality and is reported to have been using much of the same literature. Moore, by contrast, has been the party’s star recruit for the chamber since the outset of election season. He has hosted a number of significant fundraisers with Gov. Beshear and other political figures in the state and run a solid ground campaign in both Fayette and Jessamine counties. We’re keeping the seat at Leans Democratic due to the intense Christian conservatism of the Wilmore area, but Moore has a clear advantage in this district that may well end up voting for Kamala Harris.

The next of the Lexington area seats is Cherlynn Stevenson’s (D) HD 88, which takes in parts of Fayette and Scott counties. The 88th was a seat drawn to eliminate Stevenson during the 2022 gerrymander, but she managed to hold on in this R+4 seat. Republicans have made it their personal mission to flip her seat, if no others. Republicans have nominated educator Vanessa Grossl, who recently also received an endorsement from the Forward Party (which in Kentucky, is run by Republican defectors). They have also attempted to paint Stevenson as corrupt, alleging that she illegally bought a condo with a lobbyist in Frankfort (a purchase that Stevenson and the lobbyist have provided documentation regarding ethical approval from the state). We plan to keep the seat at Leans Democratic for now, but if signs appear that Grossl is gaining meaningful momentum, the seat could well move.

The last of the Leans Democratic seats in the Bluegrass is the Frankfort-area HD 57. The seat is being vacated by Minority Leader Derrick Graham (D), who has represented the area since 2003, and frequently won above 60% of the vote (the seat was D+2.5 in 2020). The district is heavily populated with state government workers, which skew much more Democratic down ballot than they do at the top. The current iteration of the 57th loses more of the rural parts of Franklin County to the neighboring 56th district, which gives it most of its Democratic lean. Businesswoman Erika Hancock (D) is taking on Frankfort City Commissioner Kyle Thompson (R) for the seat, and she narrowly favored to win simply based on the base partisanship (federal and down ballot) of the seat.

Democrats have two seats that they have off-chances to flip: HD 56 centered around Woodford County, and HD 73 centered around Clark County. Both of these seats went for Trump in 2020 by double digits. HD 56 had been competitive in years past when the seat contained portions of Fayette County, but this is no more. The 73rd now has a portion of Fayette, but a small and comparatively red portion at that. Are there paths for the Democratic nominees to unseat their Republican state reps? Yes, but very unlikely. Both seats only cross into Likely Republican territory because of their ancestral competitiveness, and the 73rd’s competitiveness with Democrat Thomas West in the race last cycle. They’re seats to watch, but not necessarily to expect significant shifts from.

Eastern KY

In Eastern Kentucky, there are two competitive State House seats: the 84th and the 95th. The 95th is the less competitive of the two, but oddly enough (for those of you unaware) in favor of Democrats. Rep. Ashley Tackett-Lafferty (D) represents this Floyd County-centric seat, and has won re-election in recent years by double digit margins. The seat used to be House Majority Leader and State Attorney General Greg Stumbo’s prior to his 2016 loss. ATL retook the seat in the 2018 cycle, and has been a fixture of Eastern Kentucky politics ever since. Her opponent, Brandon Spencer, has attempted to adopt the, “Let’s go Brandon” expression into his campaign, now for the second cycle in a row, failing to gain traction over time. Which is odd considering it lost a lot of its luster for Republicans once Democrats adopted the phrase. The only thing causing us to rate ATL’s seat at Likely instead of Safe Democratic is the heavy federal Republican lean of the seat (making an upset possible, albeit unlikely), but we would expect her to win by somewhere in the low double digits again.

The 84th was last held by Democrats in 2014, back when the seat was Perry and Harlan counties. The seat has changed, and now contains all of Breathitt, Owsley, and Perry counties. Representative Chris Fugate (R) was in law enforcement prior to being elected, living around Hazard in Perry County but also patrolling Harlan. He took office in 2014, in part due to Harlan County’s dramatic red shift, and has failed to attract a spirited challenger since then (with his 2022 challenger having had the flooding impact her family enough to stall out her campaign). This year, Fugate faces Zack Hall (D), a former educator and current nonprofit worker from Hazard. Despite not having received much help from outside the district, Hall has received the backing of teacher’s groups, former and current elected officials, and has posted decent fundraising numbers for a seat that many have written off as unwinnable. Hall absolutely has a chance to flip the seat back to Democrats, partially due to the ancestrally Democratic partisanship of the seat (Beshear won it by double digits in 2023) and partially due to an enthusiastic campaign. Hall has been to most major events in the district, whereas Fugate has been notably absent from most. He has been working on ads to go after Fugate for his support of charter schools, and it appears that he's ready to let loose! Fugate still has the edge due to his incumbency and the seat’s partisan lean, but Hall has successfully held him to a Leans Republican rating, and an upset would not be all that surprising.

Northern KY

Historically speaking, Democrats would not have been keen to make any kind of plays in the core of Northern Kentucky (Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties). The area has been one of the longest-lasting Republican areas of the state, but in recent years it has trended notably towards Democrats. Two seats that have come onto the board (albeit that won’t likely flip) are the 64th and 69th districts. The 64th contains part of Covington and its suburbs, and the 69th part of Florence and some Kenton County suburbs. Beshear won both of these districts in 2023, a sign of things to come in the region. Both of them are rated at Likely Republican for this cycle, and while an upset in either is possible (especially given the Liberty Caucus drama in the region), most of the action is likely to come down the line.

In 2020, Democrats held two seats here that leaned their way by base partisanship: the 65th district in Kenton County and the 67th district in Campbell County. Prior to redistricting, the 65th was a reliably Democratic district, having gone for Biden by double digits in 2020. Redistricting cut the city of Covington’s Democratic core apart, and shifted the seat’s partisanship to around R+3.5. Former Democratic Rep. Buddy Wheatley attempted to run for re-election in this new version of the 65th, but ultimately lost to now-Rep. Stephanie Dietz (R) by about 2 points. This year, lawyer Aaron Currin is running for the seat on the Democratic side. Kamala Harris may well win this district, and given the renewed interest of statewide Democrats, the seat is decidedly competitive. Dietz has the edge for now, but that can change

The 67th has had an interesting recent history. The representative until 2019 was Dennis Keene (D), who after Governor Beshear’s initial victory, took a position in the administration. During the special election now state rep Rachel Roberts (D) ascended to the position. During her time in the legislature, Roberts has established a reputation as a strong leader, and her retirement this year has left large shoes to fill for an incoming representative. On the Democratic side, former Congressional candidate Matt Lehman (D) is slightly favored to replace her. He faces Terry Hatton (R), a relatively unknown. Rep. Roberts typically could count on winning her seat by comfortable margins while facing controversial candidates. This appears to have deluded Lehman into believing that it’s a relatively safe seat. In reality, Trump narrowly carried this seat in 2020 by a little over a dozen votes. Still, Lehman is favored to win. He has Roberts’s backing and has upped his campaigning for the home stretch. We would expect Lehman to post around a 5-point margin on election day.

Louisville

In recent years, Louisville-area Democrats have crashed and burned, for lack of comparable and apt terminology. They saw their high-water mark in 2018, when they flipped two Republican-held seats in the midst of a national blue wave. Since then, however, they’ve dropped significantly. In 2020, HD 48 (a seat that went to Biden by almost double digits) flipped to Ken Fleming (R). In 2022, Republicans held the redistricting pens, and we’ll concede that things got harder for Louisville area Democratic candidates. Notwithstanding, Republicans managed to flip two seats on the southern end of town One being a Republican leaning seat on the old map that had been held by Rep. Miller (D). The other being a suburban seat that Biden narrowly carried (the 37th)

Poor performances abound. Former Rep. Maria Sorolis of HD 48 attempted a comeback for her old seat in 2022, and the now-Biden+2 seat rejected her by 8 points. In the 31st, now Rep. Witten (R) won a Biden+3.5 seat by 4 points, taking the seat once held by top Democrat Josie Raymond. On top of these, Republicans went uncontested in two seats in the outer reaches of Jefferson County. It’s unlikely that these seats would have flipped, however, it would behoove Democrats to attempt to put every possible seat on the board. Countywide, Republicans retained control of at least two offices, and came concerningly close to flipping the Mayor’s office that year. Fayette County has now lapped Jefferson to be the state’s bluest county (in most contexts). Democrats also failed to contest SD 36 that year, which only had gone for Trump by around 3 points. 

The only positive performance of note for Democrats was from now-Rep. Rachel Roarx, who managed to hold a less-Democratic seat than the 31st for Democrats (the 38th, which is just below D+3), and became the youngest serving person in the legislature. 

Louisville Democrats have notably also struggled with scandal after scandal since the killing of Breonna Taylor. Mayor Greenberg has proved to be a relatively unpopular figure, which broadly speaking has brought down other Democrats in the region. Rep. Chester-Burton (D) was recently arrested for DUI. Rep. Grossberg (D) has faced multiple allegations of sexual harassment, and faces tremendous pressure to resign. Grossberg has also notably staked out controversial positions on the war in Gaza that run counter to the Democratic base. He almost lost his primary to a relative unknown as a result. He stands unopposed in a safe Democratic seat this November. 

So, should we be at all optimistic about Democrats from the area? Survey says, surprisingly, yes. Although a little late in the game, Democrats have mobilized to defeat Rep. Witten of the 31st district with lawyer Colleen Davis. This is a seat where Democrats have seen very favorable trends in recent years, and in tandem with the Presidential race + having received an endorsement from Gov. Beshear (who won the seat in a landslide), we’re putting the race at Leans Democratic. In the 48th, Republicans are having to sweat to hold Ken Fleming’s seat, which has also seen a comparable shift to the left. Kate Farrow (D) has an ad up promising to work to repeal the state’s abortion ban. Simply not having former Rep. Sorolis running again bodes well for Democrats in the seat. Currently, we think the odds are more tilted towards Fleming, but things could change before election day.