Seat #2: Ohio HD 60

Rating: Lean R

Democrats have not had much luck in Ohio in recent years. Republicans strengthened their hold on the State Supreme Court, managed to put JD Vance into the Senate, implemented gerrymanders to strengthen their legislative majorities, and have a near total sweep of the statewide elected officials (save Sherrod Brown). Things at large are not looking up for them.

However, with the court mandated legislative redistricting that took place in 2023, Democrats have a decent shot at some seats. One such seat is HD 60 in Delaware County, one of Ohio Democrats’ few bright spots. The seat has shifted notably left in the Trump era, moving from a double-digit Trump seat in 2016 to one that he only managed to win by a few hundred votes in 2020. The seat is also among the wealthiest and most college educated areas of the state.

While Biden is likely going to lose Ohio, Sen. Brown is back on the ballot. Democrats down-ballot will likely see something of a boost. How big of a boost is to be determined, but for a seat with a margin this razor-thin, it could make a world of difference. Republicans are going to have to watch this seat very carefully. 

Seat #3: North Carolina HD 116

Rating: Lean D

Another state that redrew their state legislative lines going into the 2024 elections was North Carolina, though this time due to the state’s Supreme Court flipping to Republicans and undoing the Democratic court’s fair map. Republicans made it so that most swing seats leaned in their favor, but in doing so, they only actually flipped the partisanship of one incumbent’s seat in the State House. That was Lindsey Prather’s (D-Candler) HD 116 in Buncombe County.

This seat includes most of the outer, less urban areas of the county. It does have a portion of Asheville, and blue spots of Weaverville and Swannanoa, but this does not guarantee Prather job security. Cheri Beasley still lost the seat by more than three points, and it is unlikely that Biden will win the district. Prather does have a path to overperform (namely around Woodfin and her home of Candler), but it is bound to be a close race. 

Democrats are also attempting to break the Republican supermajority in the chamber after the party switch of Rep. Tricia Cotham. To do so, they will need to retain all of the seats that they currently hold. Prather losing would almost certainly eliminate the path to breaking the supermajority.

Seat #4: Texas HD 74

Rating: Lean D

Hispanic shifts were one of the big stories of election night 2020. Counties along the Mexican border in Texas that had been reliably blue for a generation flipped. Accordingly, one seat to watch is Texas’s 74th State House district, which follows Big Bend Country from the state’s far west to South Texas.

Democrats hold the incumbency advantage in the seat with Rep. Eddie Morales Jr. Otherwise, the Democrats only advantage is the seat having a portion of El Paso. Republicans have growing strength in the rural communities, and may benefit from the Standoff at Eagle Pass that happened earlier this year. 

As a sidenote, Texas Democrats do have a nonzero chance of winning control of the State House this year. This primarily hinges on the suburban areas of the state trending leftwards, and the gerrymander failing. However, for this to happen, seats along the Mexico border have to stay in the Democratic column, which is decidedly not a given.

Seat #5: Wisconsin SD 14

Rating: Lean D

After a contentious state Supreme Court race, fair maps have made their way to Wisconsin. Control of the State Senate is not realistically on the table this fall, but Wisconsin Democrats face a test of whether or not they know ball, and can win close seats like SD 14.

The new iteration of the 14th takes in a portion of ultra-progressive Madison, several mid-sized towns to the north, and a small portion of the Driftless Area towards the west. Biden won it by an even 4 points, and even Hillary Clinton managed to carry it in 2016. On paper, this is a seat that Democrats should be favored to win, but will likely come down to candidate quality and the national environment, the latter of which will likely not be as favorable to Democrats as 2020. 

Notably, the new Wisconsin maps are very fragile. Democrats in the state are so heavily concentrated in Madison and Milwaukee that both areas had to be spread across multiple

districts to attain the semblance of a proportional map. Even in a year where Democrats do well, they are likely to only barely win a majority of seats in either chamber. If Republicans have a good year, however, they are likely to be able to command larger majorities. SD 14 remaining in Republican hands would be among the first signs that Wisconsin Democrats are in for a rough year.