In Kentucky, one of the longstanding must-win political regions of the state has been the Golden Triangle. The points of this triangle are Louisville is the west, Lexington in the east, and the Cincinnati metro in the north. However, this excludes the now critical territory of Western Kentucky, which is home to two of the state’s congressional districts. Andy Beshear performed uniquely well in the region in 2019, and his familial ties as well as natural disaster impacts in the region may propel him to victory next month.

A January Mason-Dixon poll has Beshear up by 30 (59-29) points in WKY, with 12% undecided. This likely does not translate directly to votes, but it does bode well for his chances in the region in November.  In this article, I’ll examine a few of the region’s focal points where Beshear needs to win or perform well in order to lock down the governorship for a second term.

Bowling Green

Of all the 2019 candidates, only Andy Beshear was able to win Warren County, Bowling Green’s home. Beshear uniquely was able to perform well in Western Kentucky, and that propelled him to the governor’s mansion. Heather French Henry, who was running for Secretary of State, came close to winning the office, but her lackluster margins in the west (Bowling Green in particular) likely cost her the race.

The area’s official metro consists of Allen, Butler, Edmonson, and Warren counties, and Bevin won this combined are by about 6.5 points (shown below). A 6.5+ point swing is a big ask for Beshear. It’s not impossible, but it is definitely a reach. Beshear needs to, at minimum, cut down on Cameron’s margin here to win re-election, and definitely carry Warren County by a larger margin than his 3.2% win here in 2019.

Beshear’s areas of strength/the only cities that he won in this region were the Bowling Green proper, and the small town of Plum Springs (home to Congressional candidate William Compton). Bowling Green itself is home to Western Kentucky University, which means that student support will be a big factor in a Beshear win. The area is also home to Mammoth Cave National Park and the Corvette Museum, which are decent tourist draws (said draws favoring Democrats more so in recent years).

Once again turning to the State House, we can see where Beshear might be able to gain some ground from 2019. Granted, Bowling Green doesn’t make up nearly the same share of the state’s population as Northern Kentucky does, but there are still useful insights from such a map. The clearest of these areas is in HD 17, which comprises the western end of the county and a portion of Bowling Green itself (shown below). The 20th also has some opportunity for expansion being only R+3 federally, but the 17th is likely to prove more critical for Beshear.

HD 17 was drawn in this manner in a successful attempt to oust former Democratic Rep. and WKU Professor Patti Minter from HD 20 (the rest of Bowling Green) by taking in the most liberal parts of the district. Presidentially, this caused both districts to go for Trump, yet both seats still went for Beshear in 2019, with the 17th being slightly bluer than his countywide margin. There are a handful of either tied or marginal precincts where Beshear has clear opportunity to expand his margins.

Owensboro

Owensboro sits in Daviess County along the Ohio River, which actually saw its economy grow during the pandemic due to its industries of food, toilet paper, and alcohol production. In 2019, this was a county that Andy Beshear lost by about 3.5 points, but a statewide win could well see this county flip.

Owensboro was the victim of a brutal gerrymander, but this gerrymander allows us to evaluate its competitiveness on a more micro-level. As shown above, the city is bisected so that Andy Beshear carried neither of its districts in 2019. He did come within 35 votes of flipping HD 7, but the outer parts of the county helped it stay red. The 7th is a prime flip opportunity for Beshear, but it comes with the asterisk that Cameron’s LG nominee, Bobby Mills, used to represent a portion of it in the State House under the old maps, with the old 7th taking in most of Henderson and part of Daviess counties.

        This is why I believe that HD 13 is the better flip opportunity for Beshear. It contains more of the urbanized and suburban Owensboro. The former iteration of the seat was actually represented by a Democrat until 2020 (like HD 7), and was comparatively close, voting for Trump by only 9 points. In the event of a decent-sized Beshear win (as the polls indicate, but that I am skeptical of) , he’ll likely carry the 7th and 13th both.

Murray

        Murray is situated within Calloway County out on the Jackson Purchase, adjacent to the Land Between the Lakes along the Tennessee border. Its home to Murray State University, and was the closest county on the Purchase, which still equates to being about R+10 in 2019. I would put this at Beshear’s most likely county flip on the Purchase in 2023, but still is Likely Republican. Regardless, Beshear needs to be able to make it more competitive given its core bright blue hub.

        What does Beshear have going for him here besides the university and tourism? The tornados of 2021. Mayfield, where Beshear and Biden toured the aftermath, is a short drive away to the west. A governor showing up to the far reaches of the state, East or West, is a big deal, and that will likely net him some points in the area. Still, if we see Calloway flip, Beshear is likely on a path to a solid victory.

Paducah

         Paducah is the largest city out on the Jackson Purchase, and sits along the Ohio River across from Illinois. The city of Paducah itself Beshear won handily in 2019, but McCracken County at large was a 15.5-point loss. Beshear is very unlikely to win McCracken, but trimming down the margins will be critical. Blood-red turf like Massac could be more softened by the realignment and tornado relief efforts proximity effects, but time will tell as to how much ground Beshear can gain here. 

In summary, I think Beshear is positioned relatively well to see some WKY successes in 2023. He is likely to land far from winning the region at large, but cutting down Cameron’s numbers in solidly federally red turf as well as something of a hometown boost (as the Beshear family is from Dawson Springs in Caldwell/Hopkins counties) will go a long way.

Stay tuned to more from Pivot Point.