This week, we may see Nikki Haley declare victory in the Nevada primary and there are probably going to be articles written about it that won’t tell the whole story in the headline. The Nevada Presidential Primary does not matter in the slightest for the GOP this year, only the Caucus does. For several years, it had been a Democratic legislative priority to get rid of the caucus, and in 2021 the Nevada Legislature passed a bill requiring each party to hold a primary. Although in 2020, even prior to the pandemic, there was an expansive early voting system for the caucus, a primary is an easier form of voting. Actually attending a caucus can be a multi-hour event meaning only the most committed and enthusiastic voters tend to attend. In Nevada’s case, the overly enthusiastic voters would almost certainly lean to Donald Trump, who has a grip on the state party. The Nevada GOP then sued stating it wanted to have a caucus. A court later ruled that although they are required to have a primary, the State cannot force them to apportion delegates from it. In other words, the state can force a certain type of nominating contest to take place, but delegates are chosen at the party level. The NV GOP then later announced that they would hold a caucus just two days after the state run primary and any candidates who filed for the primary would not be allowed to participate in the state party-run caucus. Voters, however, are permitted to participate in both.  

The NV GOP has done a poor job at publicizing the caucus shown by the fact that many voters were very confused when their primary ballots showed up in the mail and Trump was not on them. Privately, just days before the primary the NV GOP has that this could end up being a disaster, according to Axios. Low awareness and confusing warnings from the Secretary of State combined with the difficulties of caucusing on a weeknight might lead the caucus turnout to be even lower than the turnout in the Republican primary. For context, previous caucuses were always on a Saturday. Although Trump is basically guaranteed all the delegates as his only opponent is Pastor Ryan Binkley, who has failed to break one percent in the prior two contests, a low turnout caucus could be slightly embarrassing for the Trump campaign and NV GOP who made a big deal out of not apportioning delegates through a state run primary.

Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, who has tried to walk the rope between being Pro-Trump and a moderate republican, has encouraged Republican voters to vote “None of the Above” in the primary and caucus for Trump. It doesn’t seem like there are going to be very many votes in the Republican primary, with only 57.9k voters having voted at the end of early voting compared to 93.6k Democrats (although Republicans are far more likely to vote on Election Day compared to Democrats.) However, the Trump campaign is worried they might see even worse turnout in the caucus. Haley should easily win the Primary as she is the only major candidate left on the ballot, but Statewide officials who endorsed Trump are pushing for the None of the Above option which may receive a much higher share of the vote than normal. Ultimately, this is not how one would design a nominating contest if efficiency and clarity were the goals. With Trump all but sure to win the caucus and Nikki Haley fighting it out with "None of the Above" for the primary, it is going to be a chaotic mess with the candidates, voters and the media trying to make sense of what is happening.