The International Brotherhood of Teamsters executive board decided last week to pass on making an endorsement of either presidential candidate marking the first time in over thirty years that the union haven’t endorsed the Democratic nominee for president. We’ll discuss how the union got here and how it fits within the broader union landscape of 2024. We’ll also look at the two parties and how they impacted this decision.

Sean O’Brien, the union’s president, created shockwaves in July when he accepted an invitation to speak at the Republican National Convention. Any major union president choosing to do so would. In fact, O’Brien was the first union president ever to speak at the RNC, according to Axios. A month later, at the DNC, a retired Teamster, Kenneth Stribling, delivered a speech that was seen as an embarrassment for O’Brien. Notably, O'Brien has spoken at more Republican National Conventions than Democratic National Conventions since becoming president of the union in 2022." So, with the stage set, let's get into the union’s stated reasons for not endorsing. 

With their announcement not to endorse, the union released polling of their members. The data was collected using three different methods: a straw poll, an electronic member poll, and a research phone poll. The initial poll, conducted before Biden withdrew from the race, indicated Biden leading Trump with 55% of the two-way vote. In contrast, Trump was ahead of Harris with over 63% in the electronic member poll and just over 65% in the research phone poll. Considering the three different methodologies and two nominee combinations, pinpointing the exact cause of the discrepancies is challenging. However, it may not be entirely surprising that these members favored Joe Biden over his vice president and or Donald Trump. Moreover, it's not unexpected that the rank-and-file presents a challenge for Democrats, as they tend to be more Republican-leaning than their leadership. Nevertheless, a forty-point swing is quite remarkable when comparing the last president, the current president, and the two candidates currently running.

Donald Trump is often not characterized as pro-union and labeling him as pro-worker is challenging given his well-documented history of denying payments to workers in the casino and real estate business. Nevertheless, he portrays himself as such. Setting aside his private sector history, it is worth examining his actions while in office and throughout his campaign. Trump appointees to the NLRB (National Labor Relations Board) made it more difficult to unionize non-union shops. Upon getting elected, Trump went to Youngstown, OH, near the Lordstown auto plant, telling workers “Don’t move, don’t sell your houses.” By March, GM had closed the factory. The automotive industry is known for its fluctuations, and there has been extensive coverage on the state of the American car industry. However, the subsequent year saw the UAW sign an agreement that effectively determined the destiny of the Lordstown factory. Allegedly in support of striking UAW workers in Michigan the previous year, his rally took place at a non-union facility. And, finally, in a discussion with Elon Musk on social media, Trump praised Musk for firing striking workers. Recalling the reason for this discussion, it becomes challenging to support unions if one endorses the termination of striking workers, impedes union organization, and makes insincere promises to union members without any intention of fulfilling them.

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Now back to the article

President Joe Biden has labeled himself as the "most pro-union president" in history, contrasting his stance with that of former President Trump. Through his American Rescue Plan, Biden aimed to revitalize the nation during the pandemic, allocating $36 billion to the Teamsters pension, thereby safeguarding the pensions of 360,000 members. This action represents the most significant private pension bailout to date. Additionally, he overturned a previous NLRB decision. The NLRB under his administration has taken a proactive stance in supporting unions and protecting the rights of striking workers, marking a departure from the Trump era, which was characterized by the appointment of corporate lawyers favoring large corporations' interests. To witness such events, one would have to look back to the 1930s or 40s, as a professor of Labor and Employment Relations mentioned to NBC. The NLRB reversed a decades-old precedent, now requiring employers to recognize a union when over 50% of employees sign authorization cards. Marking a historic moment, Biden joined striking UAW workers on the picket line. This symbolic act preceded the UAW securing record raises in negotiations with the major automakers. During the Biden administration, a surge of new legislation has focused on domestic building and manufacturing. This includes infrastructure like roads, railroads, and bridges, as well as the production of semiconductors, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sources, placing union workers at the heart of his industrial strategy that has seen some of those closed plants reopen.

One thing that has undoubtedly shifted over the last four years is the public mood towards unions. In 2010, a Gallup poll found unions reached their lowest point of public approval of all time during the Great Depression. In 2022, unions reached 71%, which marked their highest point since 1965. With last year’s “Hot Strike Summer”, Americans over and over sided with workers over their employers. In Hollywood, outside auto plants and at your local Starbucks workers were striking last year, and in this climate, Americans found themselves thinking unions had a positive impact on the workplace and the economy. Coincidentally, UPS workers were nearly on that list, but the Teamsters Union narrowly averted a strike and secured a deal. The new union president described the agreement as "richer, stronger, and more far-reaching than any settlement in the history of organized labor." Similarly, other unions such as WGA, SAG-AFTRA, UAW, and others achieved record-breaking deals in their negotiations. Additionally, there were notable union victories in Las Vegas. Where the Venetian has finally been unionized after decades of holding out. This demonstrates the increasingly favorable environment for unions, which comes after decades of the rising influence of "right to work" laws.

So, what is the union landscape, more broadly, when it comes to endorsements this year? Well Shawn Fain’s position is pretty clear... He wore a “Trump is a Scab” shirt to his speech at the DNC. Fain, distinguished as the sole union leader with a solo speaking opportunity at the DNC, voiced support for Harris quite early. Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO, declared at the DNC, "Trump's plans are a CEO's dream and a worker's nightmare," while attendees holding "UNION YES" signs filled the convention space. A sign that may as well be in a foreign language at the RNC even if some down ballot Republicans are drawing union support (or getting unions to stay neutral.) The major Teachers' unions, SEIU, WGA, United Farm Workers, among others, have all expressed their support for Harris. "The non-endorsement suggests not only that unions are willing to use an endorsement as a bargaining tool with the political establishment, but also that union leaders are sensitive to the changing political preferences of their members...In terms of the future of union landscape-we shall see. On one hand, it appears the Right is open to courting unions and their members which is largely untapped voting population for the Republican party... On the other hand, as unions continue to grow in membership and popularity, a political schism could thwart their collective power," said Hannah Cake, a Ph.D. student at the University of Kentucky student in the Political Science Department with an emphasis on unions.

Now that we've contextualized this decision, what is the stance of O'Brien's fellow Teamsters on remaining neutral? The polls suggest they might support it or have preferred a Trump endorsement. O'Brien's predecessor, former Teamsters president James P. Hoffa (no, not that Jimmy Hoffa,) has labeled it a "failure of leadership." He stated, "The only candidate who has consistently supported working families and unions is Vice President Kamala Harris," arguing that this neutrality could benefit the Trump campaign. Given their history of disagreement, it's worth examining how local Teamsters perceive this decision. "Many local Teamsters chapters have endorsed Harris. Several of these dissenting chapters are in the Rust Belt battleground states which have had wavering support for Democrats supporting Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020," Cake told us. In addition to the Local and regional councils in the "Blue Wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, other have come out in support of Harris like Joint Council No. 75, representing ten local unions across Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Similarly, local unions in Tim Walz's home state of Nebraska, as well as Kansas and Missouri, have declared their support for the Harris-Walz campaign. These are just a few examples of local unions diverging from their executive boards, a move that raises the question of whether this could ultimately benefit the Democrats. They not only endorsed Harris but also did so in defiance of their leadership.

The impact of this decision on the election remains uncertain. "We know that unions increase voter turnout in general elections, particuarly among populations with lower median incomes, as well as increase their member's political knowledge. While we might expect differences between the impact of local and national unions on their membership's voting behavior and preferences, no evidence in support of this difference has been published in the field (to the best of my knowledge.)" Cake said. Even with the union's endorsement, it's not like all members will vote for Harris. The divide between union leadership and the rank-and-file's voting preferences has been highlighted, yet in 2020, exit polls indicated that Biden fared significantly better with union households than the general population. However, exit polls are notoriously unreliable. But if you possessed a crystal ball and it displayed those numbers, you wouldn't be surprised. Though for such matters, one should probably consult Larry Sabato. It, also, wouldn't be shocking to see union members support Harris less than Biden, considering his strong pro-union stance and efforts to prioritize it during his presidency. Whether Harris will adopt a similar approach is yet to be seen, should she win. Nonetheless, her role as vice president in an administration that has, in relative terms, been incredibly supportive of unions—during a period when unions are gaining ground—might afford her some leniency. O’Brien's departure from tradition was a bold move. Whatever impact is will have, if any, is yet to be seen, but the dissent among local chapters could be an early signal.